Analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality trends of cervical cancer in Chinese women from 2003 to 2018

ZHANG Zhong-hua; LIU Chen-ying; REN Hui-ye; LIANG Shao-hui

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.003

Volume 26 Issue 1

Jan. 2022

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ZHANG Zhong-hua, LIU Chen-ying, REN Hui-ye, LIANG Shao-hui. Analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality trends of cervical cancer in Chinese women from 2003 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(1): 14-20. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.003

Citation:

ZHANG Zhong-hua, LIU Chen-ying, REN Hui-ye, LIANG Shao-hui. Analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality trends of cervical cancer in Chinese women from 2003 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(1): 14-20. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.003

Citation:

ZHANG Zhong-hua, LIU Chen-ying, REN Hui-ye, LIANG Shao-hui. Analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality trends of cervical cancer in Chinese women from 2003 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(1): 14-20. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.003

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Analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality trends of cervical cancer in Chinese women from 2003 to 2018

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.003

1.
Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710049, China
2.
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Xi'an Qujiang Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Xi'an 710043, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 11201277

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Chen-ying, E-mail: liuchenying0420@sina.com
Received Date: 2021-03-23
Rev Recd Date: 2021-07-07

Available Online: 2022-01-16

Publish Date: 2022-01-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To study the change tendency of the incidence and mortality of the females with cervical cancer in China from 2003 to 2018, and to predict their trends in the next five years. Methods The data between 2003 and 2018 on the incidence and mortality of female cervical cancer cases aged 20-79 years old in China was collected. Then the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the regularity of the incidence and mortality on the base of the data, and the age-period-cohort (APC) model was further used to explore the influences of age, period and cohort on the numbers of the incidence and the mortality of females with cervical cancer. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), grey model (GM) (1, 1) and back propagation (BP) neural network model were developed to fit the incidence and mortality, and the model with the high-precision prediction was selected to foresee the incidence and mortality in the next five years. Results From 2003 to 2018, the incidence of female cervical cancer shows two turning points, with a rapid increase and then a decline; The mortality has a turning point, and decreases first and then increases. In general, the risk of cervical cancer cases increases with age, and slowly decreases after reaching a peak in their 55- < 60 years old. The risk of mortality keeps rising constantly with respect to age, the period effect increases with period evolving and the cohort effect decreases constantly. The fitting results of different models illustrate that the BP neural network model has better effect. Conclusions From 2003 to 2018, the incidence rate and the mortality rate of female cervical cancer cases decrease as a whole, and are more affected by age, but less affected by period and cohort. It is predicted that they will decline in the next five years. Therefore, it is necessity for women to strengthen the screening of cervical cancer and take HPV vaccination.
- Cervical cancer,
- Trend,
- APC model,
- Joinpoint regression model,
- Prediction

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References(13)

References

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