中国部分省份手足口病传染率分析

王燕芬; 王旭峰; 赵继军

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.010

中国部分省份手足口病传染率分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.010

266071 青岛, 青岛大学复杂性科学研究所

基金项目:

山东省自然科学基金 ZR2018MH037

详细信息

通讯作者:
赵继军, E-mail: jjzhao@qdu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R512.5;R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-12-21
- 修回日期: 2019-02-19
- 刊出日期: 2019-05-10

Analysis of transmission rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in different provinces in China

Complexity Science Institute, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China

Funds:

Shandong Natural Science Foundation ZR2018MH037

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHAO Ji-jun, E-mail: jjzhao@qdu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的了解不同气候带省份手足口病(hand，foot and mouth disease，HFMD)发病数的周期性，传染率的季节性及影响因素，为HFMD的防治提供科学的参考依据。方法选取海南省、湖南省、山东省、青海省和内蒙古自治区这5个具有气候代表性的省，利用小波变换分析各省HFMD发病数周期性，建立时间序列易感者-感染者-康复者(time series susceptible infected recovered，TSIR)模型，应用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛方法(markov chain monte carlo，MCMC)估计TSIR模型中参数，分析各省以及全国的HFMD的传染率季节性；最后建立线性回归模型分析气候、假期和春运对传染率季节性的影响。结果 (1) 不同气候带的各省的HFMD传染率均呈季节性，且有相似的模式，2月至5月为高峰期；(2)HFMD的传染率季节性既受气候的影响，又受人群接触率的影响：内蒙古自治区的HFMD传染率仅受相对湿度的影响，其他各省的传染率仅受春运的影响。结论 HFMD传染率有明显季节性，在2月有大幅度增加，春运期间要加强对其防控。
- 手足口病 /
- 传染率 /
- 季节性 /
- 气候 /
- 开学放假 /
- 春运
Abstract: Objective To understand the periodicity of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in representative provinces from different climatic zones in China, and to analyze the seasonality and the factors influencing the HFMD transmission rate, to provide a scientific reference for the prevention and treatment of HFMD. Methods Five climate-representative provinces including Hainan, Hunan, Shandong, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia were selected as research objects. Wavelet analysis was used to analyze the cyclic pattern of HFMD incidence. Time series susceptible infected recovered (TSIR) model was established to examine the HFMD transmission rate of the five provinces and of the entire country. The parameters in the TSIR model were estimated by markov chain monte carlo (MCMC). Linear regression model was used to analyze the effects of climate factors, school terms and the Spring Festival travel rush on the transmission rate of HFMD. Results (1) HFMD incidence in the provinces and the entire country exhibited annual or semi-annual cycles and the transmission rates in all provinces showed obvious seasonality with similar patterns. February to May was the peak period of HFMD transmission rate. (2) The transmission rate of HFMD was affected by the climate or the contact rate, depending on which factor was dominant. Conclusions The transmission rate of HFMD had obvious seasonality, which had increased significantly in February, and it was necessary to strengthen its prevention and control during the Spring Festival.
- HFMD /
- Transmission rate /
- Seasonality /
- Climate /
- School terms /
- Spring Festival travel rush

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图 1 各省及全国手足口病发病数周期性小波分析结果

Figure 1. Result of the wavelet analysis for HFMD incidence periodicities in the five selected provinces and the entire country

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图 2 各省及全国传染率及其相对平均值的偏离百分数

注：阴影部分为寒暑假期，框为春运期间，有2周的延迟。

Figure 2. The HFMD transmission rate and deviance of the relative average of transmission rate in selected provinces and main land China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 线性回归模型分析结果

Table 1. Results of linear regression model

	相对湿度		春运期间		决定系数
	回归系数	P值	回归系数	P值	决定系数
海南	-	-	2.655×10^-6	< 0.001	0.759
湖南	-	-	8.060×10^-7	< 0.001	0.799
山东	-	-	4.485×10^-7	0.024	0.358
内蒙古	-1.755×10^-7	< 0.001	-	-	0.786
青海	-	-	4.321×10^-6	0.058	0.245
注：月平均气温、降雨量、光照时数和开学放假对手足口病传染率季节性没有显著影响，在表中没有表示。

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