基于分布滞后非线性模型探讨上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻的发病与气象因素的关联

周士夏; 张海洋; 王丽萍; 刘玮; 方立群; 国家科技重大专项腹泻症候群监测团队

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.012

文章导航 > 中华疾病控制杂志 > 2021 > 25(10): 1180-1185, 1193

周士夏, 张海洋, 王丽萍, 刘玮, 方立群, 国家科技重大专项腹泻症候群监测团队. 基于分布滞后非线性模型探讨上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻的发病与气象因素的关联[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2021, 25(10): 1180-1185, 1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.012

引用本文:

ZHOU Shi-xia, ZHANG Hai-yang, WANG Li-ping, LIU Wei, FANG Li-qun, National Science and Technology Major Project Etiology of Diarrhea Surveillance Study Team. Exploration of the association between meteorological factors and positive rate of norovirus infectious diarrhea based on the distributed lag non-linear model in Shanghai[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1180-1185, 1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.012

Citation:

ZHOU Shi-xia, ZHANG Hai-yang, WANG Li-ping, LIU Wei, FANG Li-qun, National Science and Technology Major Project Etiology of Diarrhea Surveillance Study Team. Exploration of the association between meteorological factors and positive rate of norovirus infectious diarrhea based on the distributed lag non-linear model in Shanghai[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1180-1185, 1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.012

引用本文:

Citation:

ZHOU Shi-xia, ZHANG Hai-yang, WANG Li-ping, LIU Wei, FANG Li-qun, National Science and Technology Major Project Etiology of Diarrhea Surveillance Study Team. Exploration of the association between meteorological factors and positive rate of norovirus infectious diarrhea based on the distributed lag non-linear model in Shanghai[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1180-1185, 1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.012

基于分布滞后非线性模型探讨上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻的发病与气象因素的关联

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.012

1.
230032 合肥，安徽医科大学公共卫生学院
2.
100071 北京，军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室
3.
102206 北京，中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制处传染病监测预警重点实验室
4.
100191 北京，北京大学公共卫生学院卫生检验学系

基金项目:

国家科技重大专项 2018ZX10713001

国家科技重大专项 2018ZX10713002

国家科技重大专项 2018ZX10201001

详细信息

通讯作者:
方立群，E-mail: fang_lq@163.com

中图分类号: R183.4
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-03-02
- 修回日期: 2021-05-04
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-17
- 刊出日期: 2021-10-10

Exploration of the association between meteorological factors and positive rate of norovirus infectious diarrhea based on the distributed lag non-linear model in Shanghai

ZHOU Shi-xia^{1, 2},
ZHANG Hai-yang²,
WANG Li-ping³,
LIU Wei^{2, 4},
FANG Li-qun^{1, 2
, ,},
National Science and Technology Major Project Etiology of Diarrhea Surveillance Study Team

1.
School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China
3.
Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
4.
Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China

Funds:

National Science and Technology Major Project 2018ZX10713001

National Science and Technology Major Project 2018ZX10713002

National Science and Technology Major Project 2018ZX10201001

More Information

Corresponding author: FANG Li-qun, E-mail: fang_lq@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨上海市腹泻患者中诺如病毒感染与气象因素的关联，为诺如病毒感染性腹泻的防控提供科学依据。方法收集上海市2012―2019年腹泻病例与上海市各气象监测点逐日气象资料，利用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model, DLNM)分析诺如病毒感染性腹泻的发病与气象因素的关联。结果在21 148名腹泻入院的就诊患者中，诺如病毒检出率为18.75%。其中45~＜60岁人群的检出率最高(22.72%)。DLNM结果显示，相对于日平均气温18 ℃(P₅₀)，当日平均气温为-6 ℃时对诺如病毒感染的影响最大(RR=3.06, 95% CI: 1.49~6.30)；日平均气温在滞后2 d时对诺如病毒感染产生最大影响(RR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.02~1.29)。相对于日降水量0 mm(P₅₀)，当日降水量195 mm时出现最大负效应(RR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.06~1.66)。结论上海市腹泻入院就诊患者的诺如病毒感染率较高，低温增加诺如病毒感染性腹泻发病风险，应根据诺如病毒流行特征针对性地开展防控工作。
- 诺如病毒 /
- 哨点监测 /
- 分布滞后非线性模型 /
- 腹泻
Abstract: Objective To explore the association between norovirus among diarrheal patients and meteorological factors in Shanghai, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of norovirus infectious diarrhea. Methods We collected the data of diarrhea in Shanghai from 2012 to 2019 and the daily meteorological data of all meteorological monitoring points in Shanghai. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was constructed to analyze the relationship between norovirus infections diarrhea and meteorological factors. Results 18.75% of the 21 148 diarrheal patients were found norovirus. Age group of 45~ < 60 years old patients were found with the highest positive percentage (22.72%). Compared with the daily average temperature of 18 ℃ (P₅₀), the daily average temperature of -6 ℃ had the greatest impact on norovirus infection (RR=3.06, 95% CI: 1.49-6.30); the average daily temperature lagging by 2 days has a maximum impact on norovirus infection (RR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.02-1.29). Compared with the daily precipitation of 0mm (P₅₀), the highest negative effect was associated with daily precipitation of 195 mm (RR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.06-1.66). Conclusions The rate of norovirus infection in patients in Shanghai is high, and low temperature increases the risk of norovirus infectious diarrhea. Targeted prevention and control work should be carried out according to the characteristics of norovirus epidemic.
- Norovirus /
- Sentinel surveillance /
- Distributed lag non-linear model /
- Diarrhea

HTML全文

图 1 2012―2019年上海市25家哨点医院诺如病毒感染病例检出率分布

Figure 1. Distribution of norovirus cases and positive rate in 25 sentinel hospitals in Shanghai from 2012 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 (A) RR随日平均气温与滞后时间的变化趋势3D图(B)特定日平均气温不同滞后天数对诺如病毒感染的效应(C)诺如病毒感染与日平均气温的总体累积效应图

Figure 2. (A) 3D plot for variation trend of RR with average daily temperature and lag time (B) Lag-response association at specific daily average temperature of norovirus infection (C) Overall cumulative exposure-response association between norovirus infection and daily average temperature

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 (A) RR随日降水量与滞后时间的变化趋势3D图(B)特定日降水量不同滞后天数对诺如病毒感染的效应(C)诺如病毒感染与日降水量的总体累积效应图

Figure 3. (A) 3D plot for variation trend of relative risk with daily precipitation and lag time (B) Lag-response association at specific daily precipitation of norovirus infection (C) Overall cumulative exposure-response association between norovirus infection and daily precipitation

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 (A) 改变最长滞后时间，日平均气温模型总效应的变化(B)改变最长滞后时间，日降水量模型总效应的变化

Figure 4. (A) The overall effects of the daily average temperature model by changing maximum lag time (B) The overall effects of the daily precipitation model by changing maximum lag time

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2012―2019年上海市诺如病毒感染性腹泻基本特征[n(%)]

Table 1. Characteristics of norovirus infectious diarrhea in Shanghai from 2012 to 2019 [n(%)]

	病例数	诺如病毒检出率	P值	GI组检出率	P值	GII组检出率	P值
总计(例)	21 148(100.00)	3 966(18.75)		335(1.58)		3 500(16.55)
性别			0.03		0.14		0.11
男	11 211(53.01)	2 165(19.31)		191(1.70)		1 898(16.93)
女	9 937(46.99)	1 801(18.12)		144(1.45)		1 602(16.12)
年龄组(岁)			＜0.01		＜0.01		＜0.01
＜1	2 049(9.69)	208(10.15)		5(0.24)		201(9.81)
1~＜5	3 046(14.40)	480(15.76)		11(0.36)		464(15.23)
5~＜18	1 240(5.86)	174(14.03)		12(0.97)		155(12.50)
18~＜45	7 377(34.88)	1 591(21.57)		183(2.48)		1 332(18.06)
45~＜60	3 424(16.19)	778(22.72)		62(1.81)		693(20.24)
≥60	4 012(18.97)	735(18.32)		62(1.55)		655(16.33)
季节			＜0.01		＜0.01		＜0.01
春季	4 849(22.93)	1 061(21.88)		141(2.91)		846(17.45)
夏季	5 992(28.33)	507(8.46)		56(0.93)		440(7.34)
秋季	5 523(26.12)	1 282(23.21)		46(0.83)		1 227(22.22)
冬季	4 784(22.62)	1 116(23.33)		92(1.92)		987(20.63)

下载: 导出CSV

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