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北京市居民健康期望寿命评价：三种测算方法的比较研究

苏健婷,  王苹,  杜婧,  王晶,  刘庆萍,  李刚,  韦再华

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文章导航 > 中华疾病控制杂志  > 2022 >  26(2): 156-161, 168
苏健婷, 王苹, 杜婧, 王晶, 刘庆萍, 李刚, 韦再华. 北京市居民健康期望寿命评价：三种测算方法的比较研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
引用本文: 苏健婷, 王苹, 杜婧, 王晶, 刘庆萍, 李刚, 韦再华. 北京市居民健康期望寿命评价：三种测算方法的比较研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
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SU Jian-ting, WANG Ping, DU Jing, WANG Jing, LIU Qing-ping, LI Gang, WEI Zai-hua. Evaluation of healthy-adjusted life expectancy in Beijing City, China: A comparative study of three calculating methods[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
Citation: SU Jian-ting, WANG Ping, DU Jing, WANG Jing, LIU Qing-ping, LI Gang, WEI Zai-hua. Evaluation of healthy-adjusted life expectancy in Beijing City, China: A comparative study of three calculating methods[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
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北京市居民健康期望寿命评价：三种测算方法的比较研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006

  • 100013 北京，北京市疾病预防控制中心信息统计中心/北京市预防医学研究中心

基金项目: 

首都卫生发展科研专项 2018-1-1011

北京市优秀人才培养资助项目 2018000021469G295

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    李刚，E-mail: ligang@bjcdc.org

    韦再华，E-mail: wzh.g@163.com

  • 中图分类号: R195.3

Evaluation of healthy-adjusted life expectancy in Beijing City, China: A comparative study of three calculating methods

  • Department of Statistics and Information, Beijing Center for Diseases Prevention and Control (Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine), Beijing 100013, China

Funds: 

Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research 2018-1-1011

Beijing Excellent Talent Funding 2018000021469G295

More Information

    摘要
  • 摘要:   目的  应用三种方法测算北京市≥15岁居民健康期望寿命(healthy-adjusted life expectancy, HALE)，评价北京市人群健康状况。  方法  收集北京市居民死因监测数据、北京市居民死因漏报调查数据、北京市居民自报健康调查数据和全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study, GBD)中北京市因伤残导致的寿命损失(years lived with disability, YLD)数据，计算自评伤残测度、HOPIT模型(Hierarchical ordered probit model)校正伤残测度和GBD伤残测度，通过沙利文(Sullivan)方法分别测算北京市≥15岁居民自评健康寿命年(healthy life years, HLY)、HOPIT模型校正的健康期望寿命(HALE_HOPIT)和GBD健康期望寿命(HALE_GBD)。  结果  北京市2015年，15~＜20岁组居民期望寿命(life expectancy, LE)为67.7岁，HLY、HALE_HOPIT和HALE_GBD分别为51.9岁、44.1岁和57.8岁。在不同性别、各个年龄组均为HALE_GBD>HLY>HALE_HOPIT。HLY、HALE_HOPIT和HALE_GBD均随着年龄增长呈下降趋势。所有年龄组女性HLY和HALE_GBD均高于男性， < 80岁女性组HALE_HOPIT也高于男性，但≥80岁女性组HALE_HOPIT略低于男性。  结论  三种HALE测算结果存在较大差异，但性别、年龄趋势一致，均揭示北京市≥15岁居民因伤残损失较多的健康寿命年。三种测算结果的不同与对“健康”测量方法不同有关，仍需持续开展相关调查研究。
    Abstract:   Objective  To calculate the level of healthy-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) using three calculating methods, and assess the health status of residents aged ≥15 years in Beijing City.  Methods  This research collected the surveillance data of death causes, missing reports of death causes, data of self-reported health status survey and data of years lived with disability (YLD) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). These data were used to calculate self-reported disability weight, Hierarchical ordered probit model (HOPIT)-adjusted disability weight and GBD disability weight. And then Sullivan method was used to calculate healthy life years (HLY), HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy (HALE_HOPIT), and GBD healthy-adjusted life expectancy (HALE_GBD) among residents aged ≥15 years in Beijing City.  Results  The life expectancy (LE) of residents aged 15- < 20 years was 67.7 years, and HLY, HALE_HOPIT, and HALE_GBD were 51.9 years, 44.1 years, and 57.8 years, respectively. The study observed HALE_GBD > HLY > HALE_HOPIT in any gender or age group. HLY, HALE_HOPIT, and HALE_GBD decreased with age. HLY and HALE_GBD in female residents were higher than male residents in all age groups. HALE_HOPIT in females was higher than in males among residents under 80 years of age, and HALE_HOPIT in females was slightly lower than in males among residents aged ≥80 years.  Conclusions  The calculating values of HALE using three methods were significantly different, but the trends were consistent across other gender and age groups. The results revealed that there were many years of healthy life lost due to disability among residents aged ≥15 years in Beijing City. The different effects across the three methods are related to the differences in health measurement. Thus, we should continuously carry out further investigations and researches.
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  • 图  1  北京市居民自评伤残测度、HOPIT模型校正伤残测度和GBD伤残测度

    Figure  1.  Self-reported disability weight, HOPIT model-adjusted disability weight, and GBD disability weight among residents in Beijing City

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  2  2015年北京市居民LE、HLY、HALE_HOPIT、HALE_GBD及其性别比较

    Figure  2.  Healthy life years, HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy, and GBD healthy-adjusted life expectancy by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    表  1  2015年北京市居民HLY及其性别比较

    Table  1.   Healthy life years by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    年龄组
    (岁)    		 全部(岁) LHE/LE(%) 女性(岁) LHE/LE(%) 男性(岁) LHE/LE(%)
    LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE
    15~＜20 67.7 51.9 15.8 23.4 69.5 53.2 16.2 23.4 64.8 50.3 14.5 22.3
    20~＜25 62.7 47.1 15.7 25.0 64.5 48.4 16.1 25.0 59.8 45.6 14.3 23.8
    25~＜30 57.8 42.4 15.4 26.6 59.5 43.8 15.8 26.5 54.9 40.9 14.1 25.6
    30~＜35 52.8 37.7 15.2 28.7 54.6 39.0 15.6 28.5 50.0 36.1 13.9 27.7
    35~＜40 47.9 33.2 14.7 30.7 49.6 34.6 15.1 30.4 45.1 31.7 13.4 29.7
    40~＜45 43.0 28.8 14.3 33.2 44.7 30.0 14.7 32.8 40.3 27.3 13.0 32.2
    45~＜50 38.3 24.7 13.5 35.4 39.9 25.8 14.0 35.2 35.6 23.5 12.1 34.1
    50~＜55 33.6 20.6 13.0 38.6 35.1 21.7 13.3 38.0 31.1 19.4 11.7 37.6
    55~＜60 29.0 17.0 12.1 41.5 30.3 17.9 12.4 40.8 26.7 15.9 10.8 40.5
    60~＜65 24.6 13.8 10.8 44.0 25.7 14.5 11.2 43.4 22.5 12.9 9.6 42.6
    65~＜70 20.3 10.6 9.7 47.9 21.2 11.0 10.2 48.1 18.5 10.1 8.4 45.3
    70~＜75 16.3 7.5 8.8 54.1 16.9 8.2 8.7 51.3 14.8 6.8 8.0 54.2
    75~＜80 12.9 5.2 7.7 59.9 13.1 6.3 6.9 52.3 11.8 4.2 7.6 64.6
    ≥80 10.1 4.1 6.0 59.5 10.1 5.0 5.0 50.0 9.5 3.3 6.2 65.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2015年北京市居民HALE_HOPIT及其性别比较

    Table  2.   HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    年龄组
    (岁)    		 全部(岁) LHE/LE(%) 女性(岁) LHE/LE(%) 男性(岁) LHE/LE(%)
    LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE
    15~＜20 67.7 44.1 23.6 34.9 69.5 44.2 25.3 36.4 64.8 43.4 21.3 33.0
    20~＜25 62.7 39.6 23.1 36.9 64.5 39.9 24.6 38.1 59.8 38.8 21.1 35.2
    25~＜30 57.8 35.1 22.6 39.2 59.5 35.4 24.1 40.5 54.9 34.3 20.6 37.5
    30~＜35 52.8 30.7 22.1 41.9 54.6 31.0 23.6 43.2 50.0 29.9 20.1 40.2
    35~＜40 47.9 26.3 21.6 45.2 49.6 26.6 23.0 46.4 45.1 25.5 19.6 43.5
    40~＜45 43.0 22.9 20.1 46.8 44.7 23.3 21.5 48.0 40.3 22.0 18.3 45.3
    45~＜50 38.3 19.5 18.8 49.1 39.9 19.8 20.1 50.4 35.6 18.7 16.9 47.5
    50~＜55 33.6 16.1 17.5 52.2 35.1 16.3 18.7 53.4 31.1 15.3 15.8 50.7
    55~＜60 29.0 12.7 16.3 56.1 30.3 12.9 17.4 57.4 26.7 12.1 14.6 54.7
    60~＜65 24.6 10.4 14.2 57.8 25.7 10.5 15.2 59.0 22.5 9.8 12.7 56.4
    65~＜70 20.3 8.1 12.2 60.3 21.2 8.1 13.0 61.6 18.5 7.6 10.8 58.6
    70~＜75 16.3 5.8 10.5 64.2 16.9 5.9 11.0 65.3 14.8 5.5 9.3 63.0
    75~＜80 12.9 3.8 9.1 70.5 13.1 3.7 9.4 71.4 11.8 3.6 8.2 69.5
    ≥80 10.1 3.0 7.1 70.4 10.1 2.6 7.5 74.3 9.5 3.0 6.5 68.4
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2015年北京市居民HALE_HOPIT及其性别比较

    Table  3.   HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    年龄组
    (岁)    		 全部(岁) LHE/LE(%) 女性(岁) LHE/LE(%) 男性(岁) LHE/LE(%)
    LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE
    15~＜20 67.7 57.8 9.9 14.6 69.5 58.6 10.9 15.7 64.8 56.1 8.7 13.4
    20~＜25 62.7 53.1 9.6 15.3 64.5 53.9 10.6 16.4 59.8 51.4 8.4 14.1
    25~＜30 57.8 48.5 9.3 16.1 59.5 49.3 10.2 17.1 54.9 46.8 8.1 14.7
    30~＜35 52.8 44.0 8.9 16.8 54.6 44.8 9.8 17.9 50.0 42.3 7.7 15.4
    35~＜40 47.9 39.5 8.4 17.6 49.6 40.3 9.3 18.8 45.1 37.8 7.3 16.2
    40~＜45 43.0 35.1 8.0 18.5 44.7 35.9 8.8 19.7 40.3 33.4 6.8 17.0
    45~＜50 38.3 30.8 7.4 19.4 39.9 31.7 8.2 20.6 35.6 29.2 6.4 17.9
    50~＜55 33.6 26.7 6.9 20.5 35.1 27.5 7.6 21.6 31.1 25.2 5.9 19.0
    55~＜60 29.0 22.8 6.3 21.6 30.3 23.5 6.9 22.6 26.7 21.3 5.4 20.3
    60~＜65 24.6 19.0 5.7 23.0 25.7 19.5 6.2 24.0 22.5 17.6 4.9 21.7
    65~＜70 20.3 15.3 5.0 24.6 21.2 15.8 5.4 25.5 18.5 14.2 4.3 23.3
    70~＜75 16.3 12.0 4.3 26.3 16.9 12.3 4.6 27.1 14.8 11.1 3.7 25.1
    75~＜80 12.9 9.3 3.6 28.1 13.1 9.3 3.8 28.8 11.8 8.6 3.2 27.0
    ≥80 10.1 7.1 3.0 29.9 10.1 7.0 3.1 30.7 9.5 6.7 2.7 28.8
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-26
  • 修回日期:  2021-08-26
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-02-10
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