Epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
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摘要:
目的 分析2011―2020年山东省发热伴血小板减少综合征(severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome, SFTS)流行特征及空间聚集情况，为SFTS科学防控提供依据。 方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集数据资料，采用描述性分析、Joinpoint回归模型分析及空间自相关分析方法分析SFTS流行特征及空间聚集性。 结果 2011―2020年山东省累计报告SFTS病例4 642例，年均发病率为0.46/10万，累计报告死亡451例，平均病死率为9.72%。每年5―9月为发病高峰，中老年农民为发病的主要人群。Joinpoint回归分析显示，2011―2015年山东省SFTS发病率呈上升趋势，年度变化百分比(annual percentage changes, APC)为38.93%(t=2.91，P=0.033)，2016―2020年趋于平稳，APC值为2.71%(t=0.53，P=0.620)。全局空间自相关分析显示，除2011年(Moran’ I=0.011，P=0.168)外，2012―2020年各年SFTS发病率均存在空间聚集性(均有P＜0.05)。局部空间自相关分析显示，“高-高”聚集区主要集中在济南市、淄博市等鲁中内陆和烟台市、威海市等鲁东沿海地区。 结论 山东省SFTS发病存在季节性和空间聚集性，应加大对高发季节和高危人群监测管理，加大对鲁中内陆和鲁东沿海地区的防控力度。 -
关键词:
- 发热伴血小板减少综合征 /
- 流行特征 /
- 空间聚集性 /
- 空间自相关
Abstract:Objective To analyze the prevalence and spatial clustering of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020, and to provide the basis for SFTS prevention and control. Methods Case data were obtained from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of SFTS were analyzed by descriptive analysis, Joinpoint regression analysis, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results From 2011 to 2020, a total of 4 642 cases of SFTS were reported in Shandong Province, with an average annual incidence of 0.46/100 000 and 451 deaths, with an average case fatality rate of 9.72%. The peak of the disease occurs from May to September each year, and middle-aged and elderly farmers were the main population. JoinPoint regression analysis showed that the incidence of SFTS in Shandong Province had an increasing trend from 2011 to 2015, with an APC value of 38.93% (t=2.91, P=0.033), and tended to be stable from 2016 to 2020, with an APC value of 2.71% (t=0.53, P=0.620). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that spatial aggregation existed in the incidence of SFTS from 2012 to 2020 (all P < 0.05) except for 2011 (Moran' I=0.011, P=0.168). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that "high-high" clustering areas were mainly concentrated in the inland areas of central Shandong such as Jinan and Zibo, and the coastal areas of eastern Shandong such as Yantai and Weihai. Conclusions The incidence of SFTS in Shandong Province is seasonal and spatially clustered, so it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and management of high incidence season and high-risk populations and intensify the prevention and control efforts in the inland and coastal areas of central and eastern Shandong Province. -
图 1 2011―2020年山东省SFTS报告发病数及发病率情况
Figure 1. Number and incidence of SFTS in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
图 2 2011―2020年山东省SFTS报告发病数月分布情况
Figure 2. Monthly distribution of reported incidence of SFTS in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
图 3 2011―2020年山东省SFTS报告发病数县(区)分布地图
Figure 3. County distribution map of reported cases of SFTS in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
图 4 2011―2020年山东省SFTS发病趋势情况
Figure 4. Prevalence trend of SFTS in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
图 5 2011―2020年山东省SFTS局部自相关分析LISA聚类地图
Figure 5. LISA cluster map of Local autocorrelation analysis of SFTS in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
表 1 2011―2020年山东省SFTS全局空间自相关分析结果
Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of SFTS in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020
年份(年) Moran’ I Z值 P值 是否聚集 2011 0.011 0.471 0.168 否 2012 0.172 3.368 0.005 是 2013 0.277 5.706 0.001 是 2014 0.306 5.991 0.001 是 2015 0.357 7.163 0.001 是 2016 0.376 7.088 0.001 是 2017 0.268 5.665 0.001 是 2018 0.422 8.032 0.001 是 2019 0.518 10.120 0.001 是 2020 0.529 10.087 0.001 是 
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