An ARIMA model of epidemiological features of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and its meteorological factors in Guangdong

Objective To learn the relationship between epidemiological feature of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Guangdong and its meteorological factors. Methods The data of HFRS epidemic and meteorological data in Guangdong were collected and the descriptive epidemiology was conducted, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model using SPSS 19.0 were analyzed between the epidemiological feature of HFRS and meteorological factors.Results The incidence of HFRS in Guangdong increased year by year, with incidence rate (0.069-0.328)/100 000.Most cases occurred in Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai (totally accounted for 82.6%).The HFRS cases peaked monthly between March to June and lesser between December to January of next year.The ratio of male to female totally was 2.95:1(χ²=427.22,P<0.001) and the 15-55 years-old groups accounted for 85.0%.The workers, household workers and farmers(18.7%, 17.3% and 13.1%, respectively) accounted for 49.1%.There was a negative correlation between the monthly-cases and the average temperature with lags of 2-months (-0.486) and the minimum temperature with lags of 2-months (-0.493) by cross-correlation.In ARIMA (R²=0.747) model, HFRS cases monthly were statistically associated with the average relative humidity with lags of 4-months(β=0.880, P=0.044) and the sunshine duration with lags of 3-months(β=-0.024, P=0.033). Conclusions The HFRS incidence in Guangdong increased gradually past 11 years.More raining/cloud might result in increasing the HFRS cases next season as rodent habit changing.HFRS surveillance and rodent ecological monitoring should be strengthened.