Construction and comparative analysis of prognostic scoring system in patients with atrial fibrillation

HUANG Jia-qi; ZHONG Li; ZHANG Zhi-hui; WU Na; WU Long; XIANG Ying; LI Cheng-ying; LI Ya-fei

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.020

Volume 24 Issue 4

Jun. 2020

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HUANG Jia-qi, ZHONG Li, ZHANG Zhi-hui, WU Na, WU Long, XIANG Ying, LI Cheng-ying, LI Ya-fei. Construction and comparative analysis of prognostic scoring system in patients with atrial fibrillation[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(4): 473-479. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.020

Citation:

HUANG Jia-qi, ZHONG Li, ZHANG Zhi-hui, WU Na, WU Long, XIANG Ying, LI Cheng-ying, LI Ya-fei. Construction and comparative analysis of prognostic scoring system in patients with atrial fibrillation[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(4): 473-479. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.020

Citation:

HUANG Jia-qi, ZHONG Li, ZHANG Zhi-hui, WU Na, WU Long, XIANG Ying, LI Cheng-ying, LI Ya-fei. Construction and comparative analysis of prognostic scoring system in patients with atrial fibrillation[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(4): 473-479. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.020

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Construction and comparative analysis of prognostic scoring system in patients with atrial fibrillation

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.020

1.
Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing 400038, China
2.
Cardiovascular Disease Center, Third Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 401120, China
3.
Department of Cardiology, Southwest Hospital, Army Medical University, Chongqing 400038, China

Funds: Project of Youth Science Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China(81502883)

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Ya-fei, E-mail:liyafei2008@hotmail.com
Received Date: 2019-09-14
Rev Recd Date: 2020-01-09
Publish Date: 2020-04-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To construct a score system for predicting the prognosis of atrial fibrillation(AF) in China, and to compare its predictive ability. Methods A total of 275 patients with new-onset AF were continuously enrolled in the study. The outcome events of follow-up included stroke and all-cause mortality. Prognostic-related epidemiological and clinical information were collected. The blood concentration of N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T(hs-cTnT) and growth differentiation factor(GDF)-15 were detected. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to develop novel risk scoring system. C-statistics and calibration plots were used to estimate and compare the predictive ability of risk scores. Results Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that history of diabetes, history of transient ischemic attack, history of stroke and plasma level of NT-proBNP were independently associated with the risk of stroke. Age, history of heart failure, plasma level of hs-cTnT and GDF-15 were independent risk factors of all-cause mortality. The C-statistic of the stroke-risk score was similar to that of the CHA2 DS2-VASc score and ABC(age, biomarker, clinical history)-stroke score; the C-statistic of the death-risk score was similar to that of ABC-death score and significantly higher than that of the CHA2 DS2-VASc score. Conclusions The stroke and death risk scoring system of atrial fibrillation patients constructed in this study showed a good predictive performance. The nomograms of these scoring systems are expected to be auxiliary tools for clinical decision-making.
- Atrial fibrillation,
- ABC scores,
- Prognosis,
- Risk stratification,
- Nomogram

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References(22)

References

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