An ARIMA model of epidemiological features of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and its meteorological factors in Guangdong
-
摘要: 目的 了解广东肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)疫情流行特征与气象因素之间的关系。方法 采集广东2004-2014年肾综合征出血热疫情病例资料和相关气象资料, 采用SPSS 19.0分析其流行特征和自回归综合移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA), 评价气候因素对HFRS发病的影响。结果 广东2004-2014年HFRS病例数逐年上升, 确诊病例发病率在(0.069~0.328)/10万之间。广州、佛山、深圳、东莞、珠海市病例数占82.6%, 月发病高峰集中在3~6月和12月~次年1月。男女比例为2.95:1(χ2=427.22,P<0.001), 15~55岁组占85.0%;工人、家政服务和农民(18.7%、17.3%和13.1%)为主要职业人群占49.1%。相关性分析发现, 平均气温(-0.486)和最低气温(-0.493)与滞后2月的HFRS病例数存在负相关性;ARIMA模型(R2=0.747)中, 平均相对湿度(β=0.880, P=0.044)和日照时数(β=-0.024, P=0.033)与滞后4月的和滞后3个月的HFRS病例数比较差异有统计学意义(均有P<0.05)。结论 近年广东HFRS发病率逐年上升;多雨/阴云季节影响到啮齿动物生态, 继而导致下季节人群HFRS病例数增加;应加强人群和啮齿动物生态监测。Abstract: Objective To learn the relationship between epidemiological feature of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Guangdong and its meteorological factors. Methods The data of HFRS epidemic and meteorological data in Guangdong were collected and the descriptive epidemiology was conducted, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model using SPSS 19.0 were analyzed between the epidemiological feature of HFRS and meteorological factors.Results The incidence of HFRS in Guangdong increased year by year, with incidence rate (0.069-0.328)/100 000.Most cases occurred in Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai (totally accounted for 82.6%).The HFRS cases peaked monthly between March to June and lesser between December to January of next year.The ratio of male to female totally was 2.95:1(χ2=427.22,P<0.001) and the 15-55 years-old groups accounted for 85.0%.The workers, household workers and farmers(18.7%, 17.3% and 13.1%, respectively) accounted for 49.1%.There was a negative correlation between the monthly-cases and the average temperature with lags of 2-months (-0.486) and the minimum temperature with lags of 2-months (-0.493) by cross-correlation.In ARIMA (R2=0.747) model, HFRS cases monthly were statistically associated with the average relative humidity with lags of 4-months(β=0.880, P=0.044) and the sunshine duration with lags of 3-months(β=-0.024, P=0.033). Conclusions The HFRS incidence in Guangdong increased gradually past 11 years.More raining/cloud might result in increasing the HFRS cases next season as rodent habit changing.HFRS surveillance and rodent ecological monitoring should be strengthened.
-
Jonsson CB, Figueiredo LT, Vapalahti O.global perspective on hantavirus ecology, epidemiology and disease [J].Clin Microbiol Rev, 2010,23(2):412-441. Fang LZ, Zhao L, Wen HL, et al. Reservoir host expansion of hantavirus, China [J]. Emerg Infect Dis, 2015,21(1):170-171. Lee SH, Chung BH, Lee WC, et al. Epidemiology of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Korea, 2001-2010 [J]. J Korean Med Sci, 2013,28(10):1552-1554. 余平, 程慧健, 熊英,等. 江西省2008-2012年肾综合征出血热监测结果分析 [J]. 现代预防医学, 2014,41(13):2446-2449. Sun X, Shi Y, Huang P, et al.Rats (Rattusnorvegicus and Rattuslosea) harboring Seoul hantavirus in Qingyuan, southern China: a survey during 2011-2013 [J]. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health, 2014,45(5):1058-1064. 中华人民共和国卫生部.中华人民共和国卫生行业标准(WS278-2008):流行性出血热诊断标准 [M]. 北京:人民卫生出版社, 2009. 陈平雁, 黄浙明. IBM SPSS19统计软件应用教程 [M]. 北京:人民卫生出版社, 2012. 李宏, 洪荣涛, 黄文龙, 等. 2004-2007年福建省流行性出血热流行特征分析 [J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2009,25(1):59-62. 靳寿华, 张海林, 杨卫红,等. 云南省1976-2012年肾综合征出血热流行特征分析 [J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2013,24(6):498-502. 韩占英, 韩旭, 魏亚梅, 等. 2008-2012年河北省肾综合征出血热监测及流行特征研究 [J] . 国人兽共患病学报, 2014,30(9):947-950. 刘晓青, 张天琛, 谢昀, 等. 2009-2013年江西省宜春市肾综合症出血热流行病学研究 [J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2016,20(3):228-231. 田丽丽, 黎新宇, 张秀春, 等. 2005-2011年北京市肾综合征出血热病例的流行特征 [J].中华疾病控制杂志, 2013,17(5):407-409. 王敬磊, 赵亚双.1949-2012年佳木斯市肾综合征流行性出血热流行特征分析 [J].中华疾病控制杂志, 2015,19(2):211-212. 高景宏, 朱瑶, 熊黎黎, 等. 汕头市某三甲医院2002-2012年交通伤害病例的时间序列分析 [J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2014,18(10):917-921. 黄平, 俞守义, 陈清, 等. 广东地区SARS流行与气候因素变化的关系研究 [J]. 中国人兽共患病杂志, 2004,20(8):714-716. Hansen A, Cameron S, Liu Q, et al. Transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China and the role of climate factors: a review [J]. Int J Infect Dis, 2015,33:212-218.
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 397
- HTML全文浏览量: 70
- PDF下载量: 40
- 被引次数: 0