应用SaTScan与FleXScan识别丙型肝炎发病的高风险区域

李思; 朱渭萍; 陆一涵; 夏聪聪; 胡艺; 吴红岩; 张志杰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.08.013

应用SaTScan与FleXScan识别丙型肝炎发病的高风险区域

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.08.013

李思^1,2,
朱渭萍^2,3,
陆一涵^1,2,
夏聪聪^1,2,
胡艺^1,2,
吴红岩^2,3, ,,
张志杰^1,2, ,

1. 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室, 复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室, 上海 200032;
2. 复旦大学浦东预防研究院微生物检测平台, 上海 200136;
3. 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心传染病防治与消毒管理科, 上海 200136

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金（81673239）；上海市卫生局局级课题（20134241）

详细信息

作者简介:
李思(1991-),女,广西桂林人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:空间流行病学。

中图分类号: R512.63
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-01-13
- 修回日期: 2017-04-12

Identifying the high-risk areas of the incidence of hepatitis C by using SaTScan and FleXScan

LI Si^1,2,
ZHU Wei-ping^2,3,
LU Yi-han^1,2,
XIA Cong-cong^1,2,
HU Yi^1,2,
WU Hong-yan^{2,3
, ,},
ZHANG Zhi-jie^{1,2
, ,}

1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and the Key Laboratory of Public Safety, Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China;
2. Platform of Microbiological Testing, Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine, Shanghai 200136, China;
3. Department of Infection Disease Control and Prevention and Disinfection Management, Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200136, China

摘要

摘要: 目的探测2015年上海市浦东新区丙型肝炎（简称"丙肝"）发病的空间聚集性，识别丙肝发病的高风险区域；比较SaTScan与FleXScan在疾病空间聚集性探测方面的应用效果。方法收集2015年浦东新区丙肝的发病数据，以街道和镇为分析单位，分别采用SaTScan 9.4.4与FleXScan 3中的Poisson模型探测丙肝发病空间聚集区域；并通过调整参数比较两个软件在不同参数设置下所探测到的聚集区域的位置和范围的变化情况。结果上海浦东2015年丙肝发病率为12.72/10万；SaTScan和FleXScan均只扫描到一个具有统计学意义（P<0.05）的空间聚集区域，分别包含10个镇（川沙新镇、大团、合庆、惠南、祝桥、宣桥、周浦、新场、老港和万祥）和4个镇（川沙新镇、张江、曹路和合庆），两种方法的扫描结果均覆盖了川沙新镇和合庆镇；SaTScan的窗口比例从50%变化到25%，聚集区域范围减少了一个镇，FleXScan设定不同K值所探测到的聚集区域变化范围较大。结论上海浦东新区2015年丙肝发病存在空间聚集性，结合SaTScan的和FleXScan的扫描结果认为川沙新镇和合庆镇是浦东丙肝发病的高风险区域和重点防控区域。
- 肝炎,丙型 /
- 高风险 /
- 聚集分析 /
- 空间扫描统计量
Abstract: Objective To detect the spatial clusters and identify the high-risk areas of the incidence of Hepatitis C (HC) in Pudong New Area of Shanghai in 2015, as well as to compare the effects of applying SaTScan and FleXScan to detect the disease spatial clusters. Methods By means of collecting the incidence data of HC from the surveillance system in the unit of subdistrict or town, and then conducting the Poisson model in SaTScan 9.4.4 and FleXScan 3 for detecting HC spatial clustering areas of Pudong New Area in 2015. The changes of clusters locations and scopes in the two scanning methods under different parameter settings was compared. Results The incidence rate of HC in Pudong new district was 12.72 per 100 000 in 2015. Both SaTScan and FleXScan detected only one cluster significantly (P<0.05) in Pudong New Area, covering 10 towns (Chuansha new town, Datuan, Heqing, Huinan, Zhuqiao, Xuanqiao, Zhoupu, Xinchang, Laogang and Wanxiang) and 4 towns (Chuansha new town, Zhangjiang, Caolu and Heqing) in each cluster respectively. Both of the scanning results provided by the two methods included Chuansha new town and Heqing town. Only one town was reduced, a result from the change of window proportion ranging from 50% to 25% in SaTScan, while the clustering scope detected by FleXScan was a bit larger when different K values were set. Conclusions The spatial clustering of HC existed in Pudong New Area of Shanghai in 2015, and the results provided by SaTScan and FleXScan displayed that Chuansha new town and Heqing town are the high-risk regionsand key areas for theprevention and control of HC.
- Hepatitis C /
- High-risk /
- Cluster analysis /
- Spatial scan statistic