Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiangsu Province, 2011-2016
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摘要: 目的 探讨2011-2016年江苏省肾综合征出血热流行特征。方法 对国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统中2011-2016年江苏省肾综合征出血热疫情资料进行描述性流行病学以及时空重排扫描统计方法分析。结果 2011-2016年江苏省累计报告肾综合征出血热1 733例。年均发病率为0.36/10万,男女性别比为1:0.30;40~岁和50~岁年龄组发病较多;职业分布以农民为主(78.71%),家务及待业构成比逐年上升(χ趋势2=4.446,P=0.035);全年疫情呈现双峰分布,最高峰出现在每年的10月至翌年1月,次高峰出现在每年的4~6月。时空扫描发现在区县尺度上有时空聚集性,根据总病例分布探测到5个时空聚类区域。结论 21世纪以来,江苏省肾综合征出血热疫情时有抬头,全省各地区地区流行强度不同,发病存在时空聚集性,在高发地区应持续做好控制工作,预防出现聚集性疫情。Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Jiangsu Province, 2011-2016. Methods Retrospective analysis was carried on surveillance data of HFRS in National Diseases Reporting Information System with descriptive epidemiological method and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics. Results A total of 1 733 cases were reported in Jiangsu Province, 2011-2016, with an average annual incidence of 0.36 per 100 000.The proportion of male to female was 1:0.30. 40-and 50-age groups were with higher incidence. Peasants accounted for 78.71% of the total cases and the proportion of household and unemployment were rising year by year(χtrend2=4.446, P=0.035). Northern area of Jiangsu was with the highest incidence and a bimodal seasonal case distribution,with first peak occurring from October to January of next year and the second occurring from April to June. The spatial-temporal distribution of HFRS showed a certain character of space-time clustering by county and 5 clusters were detected. Conclusions The incidence of HFRS has increased from time to time since the 21st century. The epidemic intensity and temporal-spatial cluster in northern Jiangsu were different from those in Southern. Specific control and prevention measures should be further conducted in high-risk areas.
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Key words:
- Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome /
- Demography /
- Space-time clustering
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