Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clusters of bacillary dysentery incidence in Chongqing from 2005 to 2015
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摘要: 目的 探讨重庆市2005-2015年细菌性痢疾发病的流行病学特征和时空聚集情况,为疾病控制提供依据。方法 收集重庆市2005-2015年38个区县的细菌性痢疾监测数据,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件绘制其发病率等级地图,OpenGeoda 1.2.0软件分析细菌性痢疾发病的空间相关性,SaTScan 9.4.2探索其时空聚集性。结果 2005-2015年重庆市细菌性痢疾年均报告发病率为31.84/10万,0~5岁儿童发病例数最多,占43.70%;散居儿童占比最大,占41.75%;疫情有明显的季节性,5~10月为发病高峰。2005-2015年重庆市细菌性痢疾发病率均呈现空间正相关,高-高聚集区域主要位于主城区,低-低聚集区域主要位于一小时经济圈和渝东北地区。时空扫描近一步发现细菌性痢疾发病一类聚集区主要分布在主城区,主要在6~10月份存在聚集现象。结论 重庆市细菌性痢疾发病存在时空聚集特点,经济较发达的主城区是细菌性痢疾防控的重点区域,每年的夏秋季应为细菌性痢疾的重点防控时段。应对儿童、农民和外来务工人员进行有针对性防控措施,从而控制其传播和扩散。Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiology and temporal-spatial clusters of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing from 2005 to 2015. Methods The monitoring data of bacillary dysentery in 38 regions were collected from 2005 to 2015, ArcGIS 10.2 software was employed to draw the spatial distribution map of bacillary dysentery incidence, OpenGeoda 1.2.0 was used to analyze the spatial correlation of bacillary dysentery incidence. Temporal-spatial clustering was employed by SaTScan 9.4.2. Results The annual incidence rate was 31.84/100 000 population from 2005 to 2015,with higher prevalence (43.7%) among people aged 1 to 5 years, the majority of bacillary dysentery cases were scattered children(41.75%). The peak season was between May and October. The bacillary dysentery incidence showed a spatial autocorrelation during study period, high-high clusters distributed in main urban districts, low-low clusters presented in the one-hour economic circle and Northeast Area. The temporal-spatial clustering analysis revealed that bacillary dysentery clusters most likely occurred in main urban districts from June to October. Conclusions The bacillary dysentery incidence present temporal-spatial clusters feature, and the prevention and control measures should be implemented in summer and fall and focused on main urban districts. Children, farmer and migrant workers are the key population to control the spread of bacillary dysentery.
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