Analysis and forecasting of the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Zaozhuang City between 2010 and 2017
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摘要:
目的 分析2010-2017年枣庄市流行性腮腺炎流行病学特征，建立模型预测疾病发病趋势，为流行性腮腺炎的科学防控提供参考依据。 方法 运用描述流行病学方法对从《中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病报告信息管理系统》中筛选出来的2010-2017年流行性腮腺炎疫情资料进行分析，应用时间序列分析方法科学建模并预测疾病发病趋势。 结果 2010-2017年枣庄市累计报告流行性腮腺炎病例6 353例，年平均报告发病率为19.75/10万，发病率男性高于女性，4~7月、12~次年1月季节指数均大于1，峄城区和市中区发病率较高，3~14岁发病例数占发病总数的76.85%，学生、散居儿童、托幼儿童占发病总数的86.11%；建立时间序列模型为：求和自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型，即ARIMA（1，0，0）×（0，0，0）12，模型预测平均绝对百分误差为39.99%，模型预测2018年发病数为471例，发病率为11.13/10万。 结论 中小学生和散居儿童是流行性腮腺炎的主要防控人群，流行性腮腺炎模型预测效果良好，可用于流行性腮腺炎发病短期预测和动态分析。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Zaozhuang city from 2010 to 2017, and establish a predictive model to predict prevalence trend, so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of mumps. Methods Mumps cases between 2010 and 2017 screened from Infectious Diseases Report Information Management System of Chinese Information System of Disease Prevention and Control were analyzed by the descriptive epidemiologic method. The time series analysis method was applied to model and predict the trend of disease. Results A total of 6 353 mumps cases were reported in Zaozhuang city from 2010 to 2017. The average annual incidence was 19.75/100 000. The incidence of men was higher than that of women. The seasonal indices for December to next January and April to July were all above 1. The incidence rates of Shizhong and Yicheng were higher than in other areas. The incidences aged from 3 to 14 accounted for 76.85% of the total number of cases, while students, scattered children and childcare accounted for 86.11%. The established time series model was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) * (0, 0, 0)12. The mean absolute percentage error of the predictive values based on the model was 39.99% and the number of cases predicted by the model in 2018 was 471. The predictive incidence rate was 11.13/100 000. Conclusions Primary and secondary school students and scattered children are the main population for the prevention and control of mumps. The model obtains better forecasting results and can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of mumps. -
Key words:
- Mumps /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Analysis of time series /
- Prediction
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图 1 枣庄市2010-2017年流行性腮腺炎发病率情况
Figure 1. Incidence of mumps of Zaozhuang from 2010 to 2017
图 2 枣庄市2010-2017年流行性腮腺炎发病数时序图
Figure 2. Sequence chart of mumps incidence between 2010 and 2017 in Zaozhuang
图 3 12步差分后序列的ACF和PACF图
Figure 3. Graph of autocorrelation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient after 12 step difference made on the sequence
表 1 2010-2017年枣庄市流行性腮腺炎病例季节指数
Table 1. Seasonal indices of mumps between 2010 and 2017 in Zaozhuang
月份 年份 平均值 季节指数 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 95 71 76 159 62 86 65 81 86.88 1.31 2 83 52 43 135 32 45 32 40 57.75 0.87 3 55 47 77 105 58 27 35 53 57.13 0.86 4 73 48 147 147 27 29 57 79 75.88 1.15 5 110 58 187 205 48 52 49 106 101.88 1.54 6 91 57 208 205 51 44 52 79 98.38 1.49 7 75 54 178 193 42 45 42 53 85.25 1.29 8 35 50 111 70 39 28 71 56 57.50 0.87 9 26 23 42 40 20 17 40 30 29.75 0.45 10 24 47 74 43 21 18 36 15 34.75 0.53 11 34 69 66 45 40 23 45 17 42.38 0.64 12 60 133 108 58 48 55 56 15 66.63 1.01 
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表 2 2010-2017年枣庄市流行性腮腺炎发病地区分布[n(/10万)]
Table 2. Region distribution of mumps incidence from 2010 to 2017 in Zaozhuang [n(/100 000)]
地区 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 市中区 268(51.12) 133(25.12) 349(65.67) 246(45.86) 84(15.01) 77(13.53) 69(11.95) 132(22.61) 薛城区 78(15.47) 58(11.40) 118(23.18) 238(46.72) 52(10.06) 41(7.73) 45(8.24) 66(11.94) 峄城区 105(27.20) 101(25.84) 465(118.22) 151(38.14) 29(7.06) 42(9.93) 144(33.78) 158(36.64) 台儿庄 4(1.29) 98(31.29) 113(36.02) 44(14.01) 14(4.35) 15(4.54) 184(55.05) 162(47.91) 山亭区 102(20.21) 105(20.62) 68(13.34) 164(32.11) 235(45.98) 193(36.63) 35(6.56) 34(6.30) 滕州市 204(12.13) 214(12.66) 204(12.07) 562(33.20) 74(4.37) 101(5.95) 103(6.01) 72(4.15)
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表 3 2010-2017年枣庄市流行性腮腺炎发病年龄分布
Table 3. Age distribution of mumps from 2010 to 2017 in Zaozhuang
年龄分组(岁) 男 女 合计 发病数 构成比(%) 发病数 构成比(%) 发病数 构成比(%) 0~ 726 16.38 332 17.29 1 058 16.65 5~ 1 988 44.85 769 40.05 2 757 43.40 10~ 952 21.48 326 16.98 1 278 20.12 15~ 351 7.92 124 6.46 475 7.48 20~ 130 2.93 100 5.21 230 3.62 25~ 108 2.44 91 4.74 199 3.13 ≥30 178 4.02 178 9.27 356 5.60
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表 4 模型拟合效果比较
Table 4. Comparison between actual values and fitting values
月份 实际数 拟合值 相对误差(%) 1 36 48.14 33.73 2 9 13.67 51.84 3 28 31.89 13.91 4 44 62.09 41.10 5 62 92.44 49.10 6 47 68.14 44.97 合计 226 316.37 39.99
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