河南省2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹流行特征与时空聚集性分析

肖占沛; 路明霞; 张肖肖; 张延炀

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.009

河南省2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹流行特征与时空聚集性分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.009

450016 郑州，河南省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防规划所监测一室

基金项目:

河南省医学科技攻关计划联合共建项目 LHGJ20190693

详细信息

通讯作者:
张延炀，E-mail: henan_epi@163.com

中图分类号: R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-12-01
- 修回日期: 2021-01-22
- 网络出版日期: 2021-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2021-07-10

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clusters on measles of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

The First Department of Disease Surveillance, Immunization Planning Institute, Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China

Funds:

Henan Province Medical Science and Technology Research Project Joint Construction Project LHGJ20190693

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Yan-yang, E-mail: henan_epi@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析河南省2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹的时空分布特征，识别高危聚集区，为麻疹防控提供理论依据。方法基于中国传染病监测信息报告管理系统和麻疹监测信息报告管理系统，通过描述性流行病学方法分析河南省2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹三间分布特征。采用SaTScan 9.4软件和ArcGIS 10.7软件对2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病情况进行分析，探索其时空分布规律和高危聚集区。结果 2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹累计报告2 757例，年平均报告发病率为42.82/10万；病例主要集中在6~8月龄婴儿，占病例总数的49.40%；每年1-5月为发病高峰。三维趋势分析显示，河南省2015-2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病由南向北逐渐降低，由东向西先升高后降低，呈轻微的倒U型分布；时空扫描统计结果显示，共识别到3个时空聚集区，主要聚集区位于南部平顶山市和南阳市的县(区)，包含28个县(区)聚集，时间为2015年。结论 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病率整体呈逐年下降趋势，且高发年份存在明显季节性规律，6~8月龄为其主要发病人群，2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病存在时空聚集性，主要聚集区位于河南中南部，应重点关注。
- 麻疹 /
- 婴儿 /
- 时空聚集性 /
- 地理信息系统
Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics on measles of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province during 2015-2019, to provide evidence for the prevention and control of measles. Methods Data were collected from the Infection Disease Reporting Information System in China and the National Measles Surveillance System. The epidemiological characteristics on measles of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province during 2015-2019 were described. Spatiotemporal distribution and clustering were analyzed by using the ArcGIS 10.7 software and SaTScan 9.4 software. Results A total of 2 757 measles infants under 1 year old were found in Henan Province from 2015-2019 with an average annual incidence of 42.82/100 000. Most cases aged between 6-8 months old, accounting for 49.40% of the total number of cases. The epidemic peak was between January and May. The trend surface analysis found that the incidence of measles decreased gradually from the southern to northern parts, which showed an inverted U type curve. The spatiotemporal scan found three spatiotemporal aggregation areas, and the strongest areas were located in Pingdingshan and Nanyang Districts, which including 28 counties in 2015. Conclusion The incidence rate of measles infants under 1 year old was decreasing year by year and showing obviously seasonal rule in Henan Province, 2015-2019. Infants aged 6-8 months old are the main group of patients. The main clustering areas were located in the south central part of Henan Province, suggesting that the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened in these areas.
- Measles /
- Infant /
- Spatial-temporal clustering /
- Geographic information systems

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图 1 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹病例月分布图

Figure 1. Monthly Distribution of measles cases among infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

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图 2 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病率地区分布图

Figure 2. Regional distribution on measles incidence of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

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图 3 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹病例性别和年龄分布图

Figure 3. Distribution of measles cases among infants under 1 year old by gender and age in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

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图 4 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹年均报告发病率三维趋势分析图

注：X：经度; Y：纬度; Z：年平均报告发病率。

Figure 4. Three-dimensional trend analysis on measles incidence of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

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图 5 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹报告发病率时空扫描图

Figure 5. Spatiotemporal on measles incidence of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病情况

Table 1. Information on measles incidence of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

年份(年)	病例总数(例)	1岁以下婴儿病例数(例)	构成比(%)	发病率(/10万)
年份(年)	病例总数(例)	1岁以下婴儿病例数(例)	构成比(%)	全人群	1岁以下婴儿
2015	3 190	1 727	54.14	3.38	142.24
2016	1 130	564	49.91	1.19	39.99
2017	317	157	49.53	0.33	10.63
2018	616	282	45.78	0.64	18.85
2019	75	27	36.00	0.08	2.38
合计	5 328	2 757	51.75	1.13	42.82
χ²值					170.37
P值					＜0.001

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表 2 2015-2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹报告发病率时空扫描结果

Table 2. The result of spatiotemporal scan statistics for measles incidence of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

聚集区	年份(年)	中心点(经、纬度)	半径(km)	县区数(个)	病例数(例)	期望数	RR值	LLR值	P值
1	2015	33.00N, 112.54E	132.34	28	526	100.91	6.22	479.75	< 0.001
2	2015	34.55N, 114.78E	101.08	33	518	148.56	4.07	305.34	< 0.001
3	2015-2016	35.61N, 114.20E	39.04	10	212	52.66	4.28	140.74	< 0.001

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