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摘要: 大数据生态流行病学理论范式阐明了一个更全面的生态流行病学视角,承认和捕捉现实世界和虚拟世界中的众多健康决定因素具有等级镶嵌和交互博弈的复杂网络特征。在这种镶嵌分层相互作用及其网络博弈的复杂背景下,传统的基于独立随机假设的传统流行病学抽样调查方法、传统分析流行病学和实验流行病学设计策略及统计分析方法,均面临巨大挑战。取而代之的是,系统动力学模型、网络分析及网络动力学模型、多智能体系统模型以及未来需要发展的生态流行病学超图因果推断模型。从而,由新理论范式、新设计策略和新统计方法,构成了大数据生态流行病学理论方法体系。
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关键词:
- 生态流行病学 /
- 系统动力学模型 /
- 网络分析及网络动力学模型 /
- 多智能体系统模型 /
- 超图因果推断模型
Abstract: The theoretical paradigm of big data eco-epidemiology illustrates a more comprehensive perspective of eco-epidemiology, acknowledging and capturing the complex network characteristics of hierarchical mosaic and interactive games of many health determinants in the real and virtual worlds. Under the complex background of mosaic layered interaction and network-game, the traditional epidemiological sampling methods based on independent random assumptions, traditional analytical and experimental epidemiological design strategies and statistical analysis methods, all face huge challenges. Furthermore, they could be replaced by system dynamics models, network analysis and network dynamics models, multi-agent system models, and causal inference hypergraph models that need to be developed in the future. Thus, a new theoretical paradigm, new design strategy and new statistical method constitute a theoretical method system of big data eco-epidemiology. -
图 3 多智能体系统及其代理人基模型
注:主体为独立个体或共同群体,交互的对象为虚拟世界和现实世界中的因素(详见图 1)。
Figure 3. Multi-agent system and its agent-based model
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