宁波市O<sub>3</sub>与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用

张丽; 张晓飞; 石国秀; 吕康; 豆倩; 李永红; 姚孝元; 郑山

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.05.005

宁波市O₃与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.05.005

张丽¹,
张晓飞¹,
石国秀¹,
吕康¹,
豆倩¹,
李永红²,
姚孝元²,
郑山^1, ,

1.
730000 兰州，兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所
2.
100021 北京，中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所

基金项目:

国家科技基础资源调查专项 2017FY101200

国家自然科学基金 41705122

甘肃省生态环境科学设计研究院委托项目 R20210005

详细信息

通讯作者:
郑山，E-mail：zhengsh@lzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181;X503.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-03-24
- 修回日期: 2022-11-21
- 刊出日期: 2023-05-10

Effects and interactions of short-term exposure to O₃ and meteorological factors on the number of deaths in Ningbo City

1.
Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
Environmental and Health-Related Product Safety Institute, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China

Funds:

Science and Technology Fundamental Resource Investigation Program 2017FY101200

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41705122

Project Commissioned by Gansu; Ecological Environment Science Design Institute R20210005

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHENG Shan, E-mail: zhengsh@lzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的探索O₃与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用。方法基于宁波市2014―2018年死因、气象及环境监测数据，利用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag nonlinear model, DLNM)分析宁波市O₃与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用。结果低温、低温湿指数(temperature-humidity index, THI)、低风寒指数(wind chill index, WCI)能够增加全因死亡、呼吸系统及循环系统疾病人群的死亡风险；O₃短期暴露对全因死亡、呼吸系统及循环系统疾病死亡风险的影响均有统计学意义(均有P＜0.05)，其效应最大值分别出现在累积滞后06、07和06 d，RR值分别为1.008(95% CI: 1.004~1.011)、1.015(95% CI: 1.007~1.022)和1.009 (95% CI: 1.004~1.014)；短期O₃暴露与高温、高THI、高WCI对全因死亡、呼吸系统及循环系统疾病人群死亡风险具有协同增强作用，且该效应在≥65岁人群中最为显著。结论宁波市O₃与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数存在一定的影响，且存在交互作用，其中≥65岁人群可能为潜在高危人群。
- O₃ /
- 气象因素 /
- 交互作用 /
- 死亡风险 /
- 分布滞后非线性模型
Abstract: Objective To explore the impact and interactions of short-term exposure to O₃ and meteorological factors on the number of deaths in Ningbo City. Methods Using cause of death, meteorological, and environmental monitoring data from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was employed to analyze the effects and interactions of short-term exposure to O₃ and meteorological factors on the number of deaths. Results Low temperature, low temperature-humidity index (THI), and low wind chill index (WCI) increased the risk of death from all causes, respiratory diseases, and circulatory diseases. Short-term exposure to O₃ has a significant effect on the risk of all-cause mortality, respiratory and circulatory mortality (all P < 0.05), with the maximum effect observed at cumulative lag of 06, 07 and 06 days, which were 1.008(95% CI: 1.004-1.011), 1.015(95% CI: 1.007-1.022) and 1.009(95% CI: 1.004-1.014), respectively. Short-term exposure of O₃ and high temperature, high THI, and high WCI showed a significant synergistic enhancement effect on the risk of all-cause mortality, respiratory and circulatory diseases, with the most pronounced effect observed in individuals aged ≥65 years. Conclusions Short-term exposure to O₃ and meteorological factors in Ningbo has a certain impact on the number of deaths, with significant interactions observed. The population aged ≥65 years may represent a potential high-risk group.
- O₃ /
- Meteorological factors /
- Interaction /
- Death risk /
- Distributed lag nonlinear model

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图 1 O₃与气象因素短期暴露对于疾病死亡人数影响的交互作用

Figure 1. The interaction between short-term exposure to O₃ and meteorological factors on the death toll of diseases

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图 2 O₃与气象因素短期暴露对各亚组人群总死亡人数影响的交互作用

注：T1~3为气温＜12.68 ℃，12.68~27.30 ℃和＞27.30 ℃；THI1~3为温湿指数＜55、55~70和>70；WCI1~3为风寒指数＜-300、-300~-200和>-200；^a为组间差异有统计学意义。

Figure 2. Interactions between O₃ and meteorological factors on the total number of deaths in each subgroup

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表 1 2014―2018年研究人群的死亡人数、污染物及气象要素的一般情况

Table 1. The general situation of deaths, pollutants and meteorological elements of study population from 2014 to 2018

	x±s	IQR	min	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	max
日均死亡数
全因死亡	102.98±22.08	26.00	15.00	89.00	100.00	115.00	185.00
呼吸系统疾病	14.22±6.20	7.25	0.00	10.00	13.00	17.25	44.00
循环系统疾病	31.05±9.34	12.00	4.00	25.00	30.00	37.00	75.00
污染物浓度(μg/m³)
O₃(8 h)	94.83±41.29	56.00	6.00	65.00	90.00	121.00	249.00
SO₂	12.94±7.03	7.00	4.00	8.00	11.00	15.00	73.00
NO₂	39.19±17.66	25.00	6.00	26.00	36.00	51.00	122.00
PM_2.5	39.74±25.13	26.00	4.00	23.00	34.00	49.00	219.00
气象条件
日平均气温(℃)	20.14±8.82	14.26	-2.30	12.68	21.30	27.30	38.20
平均相对湿度(%)	79.94±11.36	15.00	23.00	73.00	81.00	88.00	100.00
平均风速(m/s)	1.98±0.94	1.00	0.10	1.40	1.80	2.40	12.00
日照时数(h/d)	2.70±3.61	5.10	0.00	0.00	0.81	5.10	12.70
THI	67.18±14.02	23.60	33.65	55.26	68.85	78.86	95.32
WCI	-262.45±212.97	314.03	-946.51	-413.13	-238.26	-99.10	211.71

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表 2 不同气象因素水平下O₃对疾病死亡人数的影响

Table 2. Effects of O₃ on the number of deaths of diseases under different meteorological factors

气象指标	全因死亡RR值(95% CI)	呼吸系统疾病RR值(95% CI)	循环系统疾病RR值(95% CI)
T分级(℃)
＜12.68	0.994(0.983~1.005)	0.989(0.971~1.007) ^a	0.988(0.975~1.002) ^a
12.68~27.30	0.994(0.989~0.999) ^b	0.989(0.979~0.999) ^b	0.989(0.982~0.996) ^b
>27.30	1.001(1.004~1.015) ^b、c	1.020(1.006~1.033) ^b、c	1.019(1.010~1.028) ^b、c
THI分级
＜55	1.008(0.996~1.020)	1.005(0.987~1.024) ^a	1.007(0.993~1.021) ^a
55~70	0.984(0.979~0.990) ^b	0.980(0.969~0.992) ^b	0.975(0.967~0.982) ^b
>70	1.003(0.999~1.007) ^c	1.008(0.999~1.018) ^c	1.007(1.001~1.013) ^b、c
WCI分级
＜-300	0.991(0.985~0.998) ^b	1.004(0.999~1.014) ^a	0.983(0.975~0.992) ^a、b
-300~-200	0.978(0.972~0.985) ^b	0.972(0.956~0.988) ^b	0.969(0.959~0.980) ^b
>-200	1.002(0.998~1.007) ^c	1.004(0.994~1.014) ^c	1.008(1.001~1.015) ^b、c
^a注：表示偏冷和适宜气象因素层间存在差异；^b P＜0.05；^c表示偏热和适宜气象因素层间存在差异。

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表 3 调整空气污染物后交互作用对死亡人数的影响

Table 3. Influence of interaction on death toll after adjusting for air pollutants

气象指标	全因死亡RR值(95% CI)	呼吸系统疾病RR值(95% CI)	循环系统疾病RR值(95% CI)
T分级(℃)
＜12.68	0.987(0.975~0.999) ^a	0.981(0.961~1.001)	0.980(0.965~0.995) ^a
12.68~27.30	0.995(0.990~1.000) ^a	0.993(0.983~1.004)	0.992(0.985~0.999) ^a
>27.30	1.009(1.003~1.015) ^a	1.016(1.001~1.031) ^a	1.018(1.007~1.028) ^a
THI分级
＜55	1.000(0.987~1.013)	0.991(0.971~1.011)	1.000(0.985~1.016)
55~70	0.984(0.978~0.989) ^a	0.981(0.968~0.994) ^a	0.975(0.967~0.986) ^a
>70	1.002(0.999~1.007)	1.009(0.999~1.019)	1.008(1.002~1.015) ^a
WCI分级
＜-300	0.988(0.981~0.995) ^a	0.973(0.960~0.986) ^a	0.980(0.971~0.989) ^a
-300~-200	0.983(0.975~0.990) ^a	0.986(0.968~1.004)	0.975(0.964~0.987) ^a
>-200	1.001(0.997~1.005)	1.002(0.992~1.012)	1.006(0.999~1.313)
注：^a P＜0.05；模型调整的空气污染物，SO₂+NO₂+PM_2.5。

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