我国肺结核流行的时空动态分布特征及演变规律

孙克; 邓紫妍; 李丽清

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.010

我国肺结核流行的时空动态分布特征及演变规律

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.010

孙克^{1, 2},
邓紫妍¹,
李丽清^2, ,

1.
江西科技师范大学经济管理与法学院管理科学与工程系, 南昌 330038
2.
江西科技师范大学健康政策与发展研究中心, 南昌 330038

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 71964015

国家自然科学基金 72364016

国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目 18ZDA085

江西省社会科学基金 24YJ45D

详细信息

通讯作者:
李丽清, E-mail: liliqing_lily@163.com

中图分类号: R521;R183;R188
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- 文章访问数: 39
- HTML全文浏览量: 9
- PDF下载量: 14
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-26
- 修回日期: 2024-10-28
- 网络出版日期: 2025-03-08
- 刊出日期: 2025-02-10

The spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic and evolvement rule of the tuberculosis epidemic in China

SUN Ke^{1, 2},
DENG Ziyan¹,
LI Liqing^{2
, ,}

1.
Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang 330038, China
2.
Health Policy and Development Research Center, Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang 330038, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71964015

National Natural Science Foundation of China 72364016

National Philosophy and Social Science Major Project of China 18ZDA085

Social Science Foundation Project of Jiangxi 24YJ45D

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Liqing, E-mail: liliqing_lily@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的明确肺结核流行的时空动态分布特征及演变规律, 为肺结核空间流行预测和防控提供科学依据。方法采用Dagum基尼系数、重心-标准差椭圆、空间自相关及时空跃迁分析2006―2020年我国肺结核发病率的整体和局部时空动态分布特征及演变规律。结果我国肺结核发病率的地区差异主要来源于东、中、西部地区间差异(平均差异贡献率为53.78%); 标准差椭圆整体位于东、中部地区, 并不断向西北地区偏移, 分布重心主要集中在陕西省和甘肃省; 具有“西高东低”的空间关联格局(莫兰指数平均为0.36, P＜0.01), 且省域及其邻域随时间推移在空间分布上保持稳定的概率较大(Ⅳ型占比为85.9%)。结论我国肺结核发病率分布具有区域差异性、空间非均衡性、时空关联性及局域空间结构稳定性等特征。应针对肺结核流行的时空分布特征, 厘清区域差异来源; 聚焦重点方向和地区, 合理分配防控力量和资源; 明确肺结核流行的空间影响范围, 密切区域合作, 加强资源共享。
- 肺结核 /
- 时空动态分布 /
- 演变规律 /
- 空间统计
Abstract: Objective This study aims to explore the spatio-temporal dynamic distribution and evolution of tuberculosis epidemic in China, providing a scientific basis for predicting the spatial epidemic trend and conducting control of tuberculosis. Methods Dagum Gini coefficient, barycenter-standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal transition were used to analyze the global and local spatio-temporal dynamic distribution and evolution of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020. Results The regional variations of the incidence of tuberculosis mainly came from the differences among east, middle and west regions. The average difference contribution rate of regional variations was 53.78%. The standard deviation ellipse was in the east and middle regions, and continuously shifted to the northwest. The distribution barycenter was mainly distributed in Shaanxi and Gansu. With the spatial correlation pattern of "high in the west and low in the east" (the mean value of Moran′s I was 0.36, P < 0.01), It was probable that the provinces and their neighbors would not transition. The proportion of type Ⅳ was 85.9%. Conclusions There are the characteristics of regional difference, spatial disequilibrium, spatial relevance and local spatial structure stability of the incidence distribution of tuberculosis in China. It is necessary to clarify the sources of regional differences, aim at key directions and regions, make inter-regional cooperation closer, and strengthen resource sharing in order to scientifically prevent and control tuberculosis.
- Tuberculosis /
- Spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic /
- Evolvement rule /
- Spatial statistics

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图 1 2006―2020年我国肺结核发病率的标准差椭圆变化

Figure 1. Variation of standard deviation ellipse of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020: analyses based on standard deviation ellipse method revealing the directional and global characteristics of the spatial distribution of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020

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图 2 2006―2020年我国肺结核发病率的莫兰指数

Figure 2. Moran′s I index of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020: analyses based on Moran′s I method examining spatial autocorrelation characteristics and spatial clustering patterns of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020

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表 1 2006―2020年我国省域肺结核发病率和年均增长速度

Table 1. Incidence rate and average annual growth rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in 31 provinces of China (excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao) from 2006 to 2020: calculates based on amount of increase in incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in each province from 2006 to 2020 divided by 15 years

省份	发病率/10万^-1					年均增长速度/%
省份	2006年	2010年	2014年	2018年	2020年	年均增长速度/%
北京	51.3	45.7	34.4	30.4	26.3	-3.2
天津	36.5	25.5	21.3	21.4	22.4	-2.6
河北	62.5	59.1	48.1	39.3	34.5	-3.0
山西	71.1	69.6	46.3	35.0	31.0	-3.8
内蒙古	90.1	74.1	49.1	54.1	65.4	-1.8
辽宁	56.2	60.1	57.0	55.8	59.4	0.4
吉林	83.6	83.8	60.7	47.4	42.2	-3.3
黑龙江	109.3	95.8	89.4	65.2	52.5	-3.5
上海	32.4	34.3	28.7	26.1	25.3	-1.5
江苏	66.0	53.9	41.9	31.0	26.6	-4.0
浙江	88.7	63.9	54.1	45.3	41.0	-3.6
安徽	85.6	64.5	61.8	51.1	42.8	-3.3
福建	85.9	58.9	47.2	45.2	50.6	-2.7
江西	98.5	85.1	71.8	70.8	68.5	-2.0
山东	42.2	42.5	35.4	28.1	24.5	-2.8
河南	96.0	73.1	66.5	55.2	49.8	-3.2
湖北	108.2	84.8	79.6	63.5	54.8	-3.3
湖南	92.0	88.6	85.9	78.7	84.4	-0.6
广东	95.2	99.5	76.6	64.8	48.8	-3.2
广西	127.2	97.0	100.7	82.8	73.6	-2.8
海南	140.5	109.7	97.0	85.1	82.6	-2.7
重庆	124.7	89.9	76.6	73.4	66.3	-3.1
四川	99.2	81.7	69.7	57.3	47.3	-3.5
贵州	146.2	129.1	129.4	114.1	99.4	-2.1
云南	60.4	55.6	56.0	59.6	64.0	0.4
西藏	91.2	118.3	148.0	166.7	193.2	7.5
陕西	87.1	67.9	57.4	55.9	50.2	-2.8
甘肃	108.2	90.6	64.4	38.7	18.1	-5.5
青海	75.2	87.3	101.2	140.3	153.4	6.9
宁夏	76.9	57.4	50.8	36.7	26.8	-4.3
新疆	192.6	164.5	176.0	304.9	690.9	17.2
全国	86.2	74.3	65.6	59.3	47.8	-3.0

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表 2 2006―2020年我国肺结核发病率的Dagum基尼系数计算及分解结果

Table 2. Dagum Gini coefficient calculation and decomposition results of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020: calculates based on Dagum Gini coefficient calculation method and its decomposition formula

年份	总体	地区内差异			地区间差异			地区差异来源			差异贡献率/%
年份	总体	东	中	西	东-中	东-西	中-西	地区内差异	地区间差异	超变密度	地区内差异	地区间差异	超变密度
2006	0.20	0.24	0.07	0.18	0.22	0.27	0.14	0.06	0.10	0.04	29.65	48.69	21.66
2007	0.21	0.23	0.08	0.19	0.22	0.28	0.16	0.06	0.10	0.04	29.60	49.24	21.15
2008	0.22	0.23	0.06	0.22	0.20	0.29	0.18	0.07	0.10	0.05	30.33	46.69	22.98
2009	0.21	0.22	0.07	0.19	0.21	0.28	0.16	0.06	0.11	0.04	29.08	52.44	18.48
2010	0.20	0.22	0.07	0.18	0.21	0.27	0.14	0.06	0.10	0.04	28.90	50.65	20.45
2011	0.21	0.22	0.07	0.19	0.22	0.29	0.16	0.06	0.11	0.04	28.63	53.70	17.67
2012	0.23	0.23	0.08	0.22	0.22	0.31	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.04	29.07	54.36	16.57
2013	0.24	0.22	0.10	0.23	0.23	0.33	0.20	0.07	0.14	0.04	28.67	56.36	14.97
2014	0.25	0.23	0.11	0.24	0.23	0.33	0.22	0.07	0.13	0.04	29.38	53.89	16.73
2015	0.27	0.24	0.12	0.26	0.25	0.36	0.24	0.08	0.14	0.05	29.54	53.04	17.42
2016	0.28	0.22	0.12	0.27	0.23	0.38	0.26	0.08	0.16	0.04	29.13	57.23	13.65
2017	0.28	0.23	0.11	0.28	0.23	0.39	0.27	0.08	0.17	0.04	29.18	58.19	12.63
2018	0.33	0.23	0.13	0.36	0.23	0.43	0.33	0.10	0.19	0.04	30.88	57.50	11.62
2019	0.39	0.23	0.14	0.45	0.23	0.50	0.41	0.13	0.23	0.04	32.18	57.27	10.55
2020	0.47	0.24	0.16	0.53	0.24	0.57	0.50	0.16	0.27	0.04	33.10	57.45	9.45
平均	0.27	0.23	0.10	0.26	0.23	0.35	0.24	0.08	0.14	0.04	29.82	53.78	16.40

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表 3 2006―2020年我国肺结核发病率标准差椭圆计算结果

Table 3. Calculation results of standard deviation ellipse of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020: analyses based on standard deviation ellipse method characterizing spatial distribution features of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020 using shape index, turning angle, standard deviation of the major axis, and standard deviation of the minor axis parameters

年份	形状指数	转角/°	主轴标准差/km	辅轴标准差/km
2006	0.93	102.38	1 263.97	1 175.25
2010	0.89	91.51	1 315.95	1 177.76
2014	0.84	96.56	1 393.17	1 165.16
2018	0.71	107.56	1 559.06	1 111.62
2020	0.58	113.00	1 754.20	1 022.20

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表 4 2006―2020年我国肺结核发病率重心计算结果

Table 4. Calculation of the gravity center of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020: analyses based on barycenter method characterizing geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude), moving direction, and moving distance of centroid of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020

年份	经度/°	纬度/°	县域名称	移动方向	移动距离/km
2006	109°41′	33°22′	山阳县
2010	109°19′	33°36′	柞水县	西北	49.23
2014	108°17′	33°30′	宁陕县	西南	115.00
2018	106°05′	34°06′	徽县	西北	252.06
2020	102°30′	35°31′	夏河县	西北	429.28

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表 5 2006―2020年我国省域肺结核发病率的LISA时空跃迁概率矩阵

Table 5. LISA time-space transition probability matrix of provincial tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020: analises based on LISA space-time transition method revealing transition characteristics of local spatial association of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020

项目	HH_t+1	LH_t+1	LL_t+1	HL_t+1
HH_t	0.30(Ⅳ型)	0.01(Ⅰ型)	0.01(Ⅲ型)	0.02(Ⅱ型)
LH_t	0.01(Ⅰ型)	0.01(Ⅳ型)	0.05(Ⅱ型)	0.00(Ⅲ型)
LL_t	0.01(Ⅲ型)	0.00(Ⅱ型)	0.46(Ⅳ型)	0.01(Ⅰ型)
HL_t	0.01(Ⅱ型)	0.02(Ⅲ型)	0.00(Ⅰ型)	0.09(Ⅳ型)
注：1. Ⅰ型占比为2.3%、Ⅱ型占比为8.5%、Ⅲ型占比为3.3%、Ⅳ型占比为85.9%。 2. HH, “高-高”类型; HL, “高-低”类型; LH, “低-高”类型; LL“低-低”类型。

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