福建省2010―2023年流行性感冒的流行特征及时空特征

黄峥强; 蔡少健; 詹美蓉; 陈武; 欧剑鸣; 吴生根

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.011

福建省2010―2023年流行性感冒的流行特征及时空特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.011

福建省疾病预防控制中心应急处置与疫情管理所, 福建省人兽共患重点实验室, 福州 350012

基金项目:

福建省自然科学基金 2020J01094

详细信息

通讯作者:
吴生根, E-mail: lxbywstj@126.com

中图分类号: R181;R511.7
计量
- 文章访问数: 30
- HTML全文浏览量: 12
- PDF下载量: 10
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-04-29
- 修回日期: 2024-09-12
- 网络出版日期: 2025-03-08
- 刊出日期: 2025-02-10

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of influenza in Fujian Province, from 2010 to 2023

Emergency Response and Epidemic Management Institute, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fuzhou 350012, China

Funds:

Fujian Natural Science Foundation 2020J01094

More Information

Corresponding author: WU Shenggen, E-mail: lxbywstj@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2010―2023年福建省流行性感冒(简称流感)的流行特征及其时空变化趋势, 为流感科学防控提供依据。方法采用Joinpoint回归模型分析流感发病趋势, 采用描述性方法分析其流行特征, 采用ArcGIS 10.3制作报告发病率地图和空间自相关分析, 采用SaTScan 10.1.2软件对流感进行时空扫描分析。结果 2010―2023年福建省共报告流感343 909例, 年均发病率为63.38/10万, 发病率整体呈上升趋势, 平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)为38.56%(Z=6.86, P＜0.001), 多发于0~14岁人群。流感发病存在全局自相关和局部自相关, “高-高”聚集区主要分布在漳州市、厦门市等南部沿海的部分县(区)。时空扫描分析发现, 一类聚集区主要在漳州市和厦门市, 聚集时间多发生在每年的11月―次年1月, 偶尔发生在6―8月。结论 2010―2023年福建省流感发病呈上升趋势, 应加强重点地区及重点人群的监测和防控措施; 流感发病主要集中在闽南地区, 应深入分析影响当地高发流行的影响因素, 制定相应的防控政策。
- 流行性感冒 /
- 发病率 /
- Joinpoint回归 /
- 空间自相关 /
- 时空扫描
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of influenza incidence in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2023, and provide a reference for scientific prevention and control. Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend, the epidemiological characteristics of influenza were described by using the descriptive analysis methods. ArcGIS 10.3 software was used to draw the incidence map and perform spatial auto-correlation analysis. The retrospective spatiotemporal scanning analysis was conducted using the SaTScan 10.1.2 software. Results From 2010 to 2023, a total of 343 909 cases of influenza was reported in Fujian Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 63.38 per 100 000 people. The incidence rate generally showed an upward trend, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 38.56% (Z=6.86, P < 0.001). The disease mainly affected people aged 0-14 years old. There was both global and local autocorrelation in the incidence of influenza, with high-high clustering areas mainly located in some counties and districts along the southern coast of Zhangzhou and Xiamen. Spatial-temporal scan analysis has found that the main clustering areas were mainly in Zhangzhou and Xiamen, with clustering periods mostly occurring between November of each year and January of the next year, and occasionally occurring between June and August. Conclusions The incidence of influenza in Fujian has an upward trend from 2010 to 2023, and it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and prevention measures in key areas and populations, and more studies should be carried out to analyze the factors that affect the areas with high incidence of influenza and formulate corresponding prevention and control policies.
- Influenza /
- Incidence rate /
- Joinpoint regression /
- Spatial auto-correlation /
- Spatial-temporal scan

HTML全文

图 1 福建省2010―2023年流感报告发病率趋势分析情况

Figure 1. The trend analysis of reported incidence of influenza in Fujian generally showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2023, which divided into three stages, the first being a slow rise from 2010 to 2018, the second a decline from 2018 to 2021, and the third a rapid increase reaching a peak from 2021 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 福建省2010―2023年流感月报告率分布情况

Figure 2. The monthly distribution of reported influenza rates in Fujian from 2010 to 2023, indicates that influenza in Fujian is periodic and seasonal epidemics

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2010―2023年福建省流感报告发病率分级地图

Figure 3. Classification map of reported incidence of influenza in different stages in Fujian, 2010-2023, indicates that the influenza mainly occurs in the southeast coast, and gradually spreads to the northwest area during the three periods

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2010―2023年福建省流感报告发病率聚集图

Figure 4. Local spatial autocorrelation of reported influenza incidence in various stages in Fujian from 2010 to 2023 indicates that the reported incidence of influenza in the southern regions of Fujian was higher than in other areas during the three periods, such as Xiamen and Zhangzhou cities

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 福建省流感时空扫描分析情况

Table 1. The spatial-temporal scanning analysis of reported incidence in Fujian from 2010 to 2023 indicates that the influenza in Fujian is spreading from south to north and from coastal areas to mountainous regions

扫描时间/年	聚集类型	聚集中心	半径/km	聚集范围(县区)	聚集时间/年-月-日	实际发病数	预期发病数	RR值	LRR值
2010―2018	Ⅰ类	平和县	74.56	漳州市15个、厦门市1个、龙岩市1个	2014/12/1―2018/12/31	20 931	4 809.17	5.77	16 826.78^①
	Ⅱ类	延平区	285.32	福州市3个、莆田市2个、三明市3个、泉州市4个、宁德市1个	2018/1/1―2018/1/31	2 777	310.50	9.27	3 661.66^①
2019―2021	Ⅰ类	漳浦县	119.87	漳州市15个、厦门市6个	2019/1/1―2020/1/31	26 559	264.20	8.76	27 774.43^①
	Ⅱ类	柘荣县	29.90	宁德市2个	2019/1/1―2019/1/31	1 988	28.16	72.97	6 535.14^①
	Ⅲ类	尤溪县	67.35	三明市4个、福州市1个、南平市1个	2019/12/1―2020/1/31	1 287	170.63	7.69	1 494.55^①
2022―2023	Ⅰ类	湖里区	33.92	厦门市6个、漳州市1个	2023/11/1―2023/12/31	4 4735	2 459.21	22.76	92 053.58^①
	Ⅱ类	延平区	193.25	泉州市2个、莆田市3个、福州市10个、三明市12个、南平市10个、宁德市5个	2023/12/1―2023/12/31	1 2563	3 650.59	3.59	6 806.10^①
2010―2023	Ⅰ类	芗城区	61.15	漳州市11个、厦门市6个	2022/6/1―2023/12/31	12 7970	8 946.98	22.20	245 682.48^①
	Ⅱ类	松溪县	265.20	漳州市12个、莆田市6个、三明市12个、泉州市2个、南平市10个、宁德市9个	2023/11/1―2023/12/31	19 423	2 193.34	9.33	25 574.74^①
注：LRR, 对数似然比。 ① P < 0.001。

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(23)

[1]	Hay AJ, Gregory V, Douglas AR, et al. The evolution of human influenza viruses[J]. Philos Trans R Soc : Biol Sci, 2001, 356(1416): 1861-1870. DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2001.0999.
[2]	任瑞琦, 周蕾, 倪大新. 全球流感大流行概述[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2018, 39(8): 1021-1027. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.08.002. Ren RQ, Zhou L, Ni DX. Overview of global influenza pandemic[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2018, 39(8): 1021-1027. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.08.002.
[3]	World Health Organization. Global influenza strategy 2019-2030[EB/OL]. (2019)[2024-06 -09]. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/311184 .
[4]	刘云广, 黄茜, 张乐, 等. 2004-2018年中国流行性感冒发病率的时空分析及其预测模型研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2023, 27(2): 176-183. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.009. Liu YG, Huang Q, Zhang L, et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of influenza incidence in China from 2004 to 2018 and its prediction model[J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2023, 27(2): 176-183. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.009.
[5]	中国国家流感中心. 全国流感监测方案(2010年版)[EB/OL]. (2016-05-20)[2024-04-24]. https://ivdc.chinacdc.cn/cnic/zyzx/jcfa/201605/t20160520_129694.htm .
[6]	中国国家流感中心. 全国流感监测方案(2017年版)[EB/OL]. (2017-07-27)[2024-04-24]. https://ivdc.chinacdc.cn/cnic/zyzx/jcfa/201709/t20170927_153830.htm .
[7]	国家卫生健康委员会. 流行性感冒诊疗方案(2018版)[EB/OL]. (2018-01-09)[2024-04-28]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yzygj/s3594q/201801/5737c258bb0c4a0493cb4f65fcf11be1.shtml .
[8]	国家卫生健康委员会. 流行性感冒诊疗方案(2019版)[EB/OL]. (2019-11-13)[2024-04-28]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yzygj/s7653p/201911/a577415af4e5449cb30ecc6511e369c7.shtml .
[9]	国家卫生健康委员会. 流行性感冒诊疗方案(2020版)[EB/OL]. (2019-11-13)[2024-04-24]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yzygj/s7652m/202011/4669b15fd1f247b9bf977de7bad261eb.shtml .
[10]	史进梅, 赵俊琴, 李建国. 空间自相关方法及其在公共卫生领域的应用[J]. 中华劳动卫生职业病杂志, 2020, 38(5): 395-400. DOl: 10.3760/ema.j.cn121094-20190507-00183. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121094-20190507-00183 Shi JM, Zhao JO, Li JG. Spatial autocorrelation method and its application in public health field[J]. Chin J Ind Hyg Occup Dis, 2020, 38(5): 395-400. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121094-20190507-00183.
[11]	Kulldorff M. Prospective time periodic geographical disease surveillance using a scan statistic[J]. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc, 2001, 164(1): 61-72. DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00186.
[12]	Stelling J, Yih WK, Galas M, et al. Automated use of WHONET and SaTScan to detect outbreaks of Shigella spp. using antimicrobial resistance phenotypes[J]. Epidemiol Infect, 2010, 138(6): 873-883. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268809990884.
[13]	邓源, 任翔, 郭玉清, 等. 2008―2020年我国北方15个城市流感与气象因素的关联性研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2023, 44(5): 765-771. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221007-00862. Deng Y, Ren X, Guo YQ, et al. Study on the correlation between influenza and meteorological factors in 15 cities in Northern China from 2008 to 2020[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2023, 44(5): 765-771. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221007-00862.
[14]	Zhang ZL, Li SW, Zhu XL, et al. Increased genetic variation of a(H3N2) virus from influenza surveillance at the end of the 2016/2017 season for Shanghai Port, China[J]. Sci Rep, 2022, 12(1): 17089. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-19228-y.
[15]	郑建东, 彭质斌, 秦颖, 冯录召, 李中杰. 中国季节性流感防控现状与挑战[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2018, 39(8): 1041-1044. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.08.006. Zheng DJ, Peng ZB, Qin Y, et al. Current situation and challenges on the implementation of prevention and control programs regarding the seasonal influenza, in China[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2018, 39(8): 1041-1044. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.08.006.
[16]	Liu T, Wang P, Meng FY, et al. Incidence, circulation, and spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal influenza in Shandong, China, 2008 - 2019: a retrospective study[J]. Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 2022, 16(3): 594-603. DOI: 10.1111/irv.12959.
[17]	庄雅丽, 卢捷, 吴树凯, 等. 广东省2015―2022年流感暴发疫情特征分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2023, 44(6): 942-948. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221010-00867. Zhuang YL, Lu J, Wu SK, et al. Epidemiologic characteristics and influencing factors of influenza outbreaks in Guangdong Province, 2015-2022[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2023, 44(6): 942-948. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221010-00867.
[18]	马贵凤, 祝洁, 曹慧军, 等. 2013―2018年我国流感流行特征分析[J]. 中国病原生物学杂志, 2019, 14(1): 73-77. DOI: 10.13350/j.cjpb.190115. Ma GF, Zhu J, Cao HJ, et al. Analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in China from 2013 to 2018[J]. J Pathog Biol, 2019, 14(1): 73-77. DOI: 10.13350/j.cjpb.190115.
[19]	Geng MJ, Zhang HY, Yu LJ, et al. Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic[J]. Nat Commun, 2021, 12(1): 6923. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27292-7.
[20]	曾晓旭, 谢怡然, 陈涛, 等. 中国2019―2020监测年度流感暴发疫情特征分析[J]. 国际病毒学杂志, 2021, 28(5): 359-363. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-4092.2021.05.002. Zeng XX, Xie YR, Chen T, et al. Analysis on epidemiological characteristics of influenz a outbreaks in Chinese mainland from 2019 to 2020[J]. International Journal of Virology, 2021, 28(5): 359-363. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-4092.2021.05.002.
[21]	康敏, 谭小华, 杨宇威, 等. 广东省2017―2018年冬季流感流行特征研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2018, 39(8): 1071-1076. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.08.011. Kang M, Tan XH, Yang YW, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Guangdong province, during winter of 2017-2018[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2018, 39(8): 1071-1076. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.08.011.
[22]	韩雅俊, 杨静, 曾晓旭, 等. 我国2014―2019年季节性A(H3N2)流感的时空分布特征分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2023, 44(6): 937-941. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221212-01059. Han YJ, Yang J, Zeng XX, et al. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of seasonal A(H3N2) influenza in China, 2014-2019[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2023, 44(6): 937-941. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221212-01059.
[23]	栾桂杰, 周脉耕. 中国2004－2016年冬季低温与流感发病的相关性研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(3): 368-372. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.03.017. Ruan GJ, Zhou MG. Correlation between low air temperature and influenza incidence in winter in China, 2004-2016[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2020, 41(3): 368-372. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.03.017.