2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性

刘爱聪; 吴波青; 宋艾婧; 卢佳杰; 杨波; 孔佑速; 屈在东; 蔡勇; 冯凯; 岳太科; 宋肖肖

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.010

2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.010

刘爱聪¹,
吴波青¹,
宋艾婧²,
卢佳杰³,
杨波⁴,
孔佑速⁵,
屈在东⁶,
蔡勇⁷,
冯凯¹,
岳太科^1, ,,
宋肖肖^8, ,

1.
云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州疾病预防控制中心传染病控制科，芒市 678400
2.
广东医科大学公共卫生学院，东莞 523808
3.
芒市疾病预防控制中心传染病控制科，芒市 678400
4.
瑞丽市疾病预防控制中心传染病控制科，瑞丽 678600
5.
盈江县疾病预防控制中心传染病控制科，盈江 679300
6.
陇川县疾病预防控制中心传染病控制科，陇川 678700
7.
梁河县疾病预防控制中心传染病控制科，梁河 679200
8.
昆明医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，昆明 650500

基金项目:

云南省科技厅昆明医科大学应用基础研究联合专项 202301AY070001-259

云南省教育厅公共卫生与疾病防控重点实验室资助 2023ZD08

昆明医科大学教育教学研究 2023-JY-Y-042

详细信息

通讯作者:
宋肖肖，E-mail：ynsxx@126.com

岳太科，E-mail：dhcdcyq@126.com

中图分类号: R512.6+3;R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-09-09
- 修回日期: 2024-12-02
- 网络出版日期: 2025-04-11
- 刊出日期: 2025-03-10

Hepatitis C virus epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

1.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, China
2.
School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
3.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Mangshi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, China
4.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Ruili Center for Disease Control and Preventionm, Ruili 678600, China
5.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Yingjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yingjiang 679300, China
6.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Longchuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Longchuan 678700, China
7.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Lianghe Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lianghe 679200, China
8.
Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming 650500, China

Funds:

Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department-Kunming Medical University Joint Applied Basic Research Project 202301AY070001-259

Key Laboratory of Public Health & Disease Prevention and Control of Yunnan Provincial Education Department 2023ZD08

Kunming Medical University Education and Teaching Research 2023-JY-Y-042

More Information

Corresponding author: YUE Taike, E-mail: dhcdcyq@126.com; SONG Xiaoxiao, E-mail: ynsxx@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2005—2023年云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州(简称德宏州)51个乡(镇)丙型病毒性肝炎(简称丙肝)的流行特征、时间变化趋势及时空聚集性，为制定区域防控措施提供理论依据。方法对德宏州丙肝病例的时间、空间及人群分布进行描述性流行病学分析，采用Joinpoint回归分析丙肝的时间变化趋势，通过全局和局部莫兰指数(Moran's I)探讨其时空聚集性，识别时空变化特征。结果 2005—2023年德宏州丙肝报告发病率整体呈上升趋势，年均报告发病率变化的平均年度变化百分比为11.96%(P＜0.05)，其中2005—2009年和2010—2019年年度变化百分比分别为61.68%(P＜0.05)和4.33%(P＜0.05)，2020—2023年呈下降趋势(APC=-7.51%，P＜0.05)。全局和局部Moran's I提示丙肝病例存在时空聚集性。“高-高”聚集区主要集中在西部和南部地区，“低-低”聚集区主要分布在北部和中部地区。结论 2005—2023年德宏州丙肝报告发病数及报告发病率逐年上升，呈时空聚集性。2019—2023年，西部边境地区和南部主城区及周边临近乡(镇)成为热点区域，提示当地可能存在特定的传播途径或高危人群。
- 丙型病毒性肝炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 时空聚集性分析
Abstract: Objective To investigates the epidemiological characteristics, temporal trends, and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis C in 51 towns of Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, from 2005 to 2023. The findings aim to provide an evidence-based foundation for the formulation of targeted regional prevention and control strategies. Methods A comprehensive descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to evaluate the temporal, spatial, and demographic distribution of hepatitis C cases in Dehong Prefecture. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in incidence rates over time. Spatiotemporal clustering was examined using global and local Moran's I statistics to detect clustering patterns and identify high-risk areas. Results From 2005 to 2023, the reported incidence of hepatitis C exhibited a significant overall upward trend, with an average annual percentage change of 11.96% (P < 0.05). The annual percentage change showed a marked increase during 2005-2009 (61.68%, P < 0.05) and 2010-2019 (4.33%, P < 0.05), followed by a statistically significant decline from 2020 to 2023 (APC=-7.51%, P < 0.05). Spatiotemporal analyses identified significant clustering of hepatitis C cases, with high-high clustering predominantly located in the western border regions and southern urban centers, whereas low-low clustering was concentrated in northern and central areas. Conclusions The epidemiological analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in the incidence of hepatitis C in Dehong Prefecture, accompanied by clear spatiotemporal clustering patterns. Over the past five years, high-incidence areas have emerged in the western border regions and southern urban centers. These findings underscore the need for tailored intervention strategies, focusing on transmission pathways and high-risk populations in these hot spot regions, to effectively control hepatitis C transmission in the region.
- Hepatitis C /
- Epidemic characteristics /
- Spatiotemporal clustering analysis

HTML全文

图 1 2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率变化趋势和报告发病率的Jointpoint回归

Figure 1. Trends in hepatitis C reported incidence rates in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023 and Jointpoint regression of crude reported incidence

a: P＜0.05。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率时空分布

Figure 2. Spatiotemporal distribution of hepatitis C reported incidence rates in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率全局空间自相关分析

Figure 3. Global spatial autocorrelation of reported hepatitis C incidence in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率热点区域

Figure 4. Regional distribution of hot-spots of hepatitis C reported incidence rates in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎发病数的人口学特征

Table 1. Demographic characteristics of hepatitis C cases in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

年份 Year	发病数 Number of cases	报告发病率/10万^-1 Incidence rate of report/100 000^-1	标化发病率/10万^-1 Standardized morbidity/100 000^-1	年龄/岁 Age/years^①	性别Gender^②
年份 Year	发病数 Number of cases	报告发病率/10万^-1 Incidence rate of report/100 000^-1	标化发病率/10万^-1 Standardized morbidity/100 000^-1	年龄/岁 Age/years^①	男Male	女Female
2005	77	6.95	7.55	36.01±15.46	55(71.43)	22(28.57)
2006	200	17.36	20.87	40.45±14.82	139(69.49)	61(30.51)
2007	301	25.11	32.17	43.03±14.76	178(59.14)	123(40.86)
2008	347	31.28	33.27	40.37±13.70	227(65.42)	120(34.58)
2009	635	56.77	58.85	40.18±13.68	479(75.43)	156(24.57)
2010	881	74.32	77.36	39.05±12.94	699(79.34)	182(20.66)
2011	679	58.00	59.19	40.51±13.06	467(68.78)	212(31.22)
2012	937	75.76	74.78	38.40±12.54	749(79.94)	188(20.06)
2013	922	77.59	80.07	41.31±13.47	687(74.51)	235(25.49)
2014	891	74.00	73.66	41.37±12.61	695(77.99)	196(22.01)
2015	818	66.53	71.65	43.89±12.42	631(77.14)	187(22.86)
2016	1 076	89.30	87.08	42.89±11.90	872(81.04)	204(18.96)
2017	994	79.02	82.28	43.31±11.49	817(82.19)	177(17.81)
2018	1 263	99.24	97.85	43.62±11.35	1 044(82.66)	219(17.34)
2019	1 235	96.79	92.28	44.04±11.15	1 051(85.11)	184(14.89)
2020	1 083	84.08	78.93	43.81±11.01	896(82.73)	187(17.27)
2021	911	69.80	68.25	44.65±11.52	743(81.56)	168(18.44)
2022	1 041	75.95	78.21	45.80±10.07	840(80.69)	201(19.31)
2023	1 024	72.38	74.84	45.46±9.98	844(82.42)	180(17.58)
合计Total	15 315	65.75	65.74	42.67±12.22	12 113(79.09)	3 202(20.91)

年份 Year	职业Occupation^②
年份 Year	农民 Farmer	其他 Other	商业服务 Business services	家务及待业 Housework and unemployment	工人 Worker	干部职员 Cadres and staff
2005	34(44.16)	23(29.87)	6(7.79)	3(3.90)	5(6.49)	6(7.79)
2006	78(39.01)	35(17.49)	38(19.01)	27(13.49)	11(5.51)	11(5.49)
2007	119(39.53)	46(15.28)	92(30.57)	28(9.31)	11(3.65)	5(1.66)
2008	143(41.21)	35(10.09)	102(29.39)	42(12.11)	16(4.61)	9(2.59)
2009	405(63.78)	56(8.82)	108(17.01)	36(5.67)	23(3.61)	7(1.11)
2010	547(62.09)	108(12.26)	114(12.94)	88(9.99)	15(1.71)	9(1.01)
2011	443(65.24)	47(6.92)	104(15.32)	54(7.95)	15(2.21)	16(2.36)
2012	685(73.11)	98(10.45)	62(6.62)	62(6.62)	20(2.13)	10(1.07)
2013	696(75.49)	95(10.31)	44(4.76)	48(5.21)	22(2.39)	17(1.84)
2014	718(80.58)	75(8.42)	33(3.71)	37(4.14)	18(2.03)	10(1.12)
2015	637(77.87)	63(7.71)	48(5.86)	44(5.38)	16(1.96)	10(1.22)
2016	856(79.55)	113(10.51)	41(3.82)	40(3.71)	15(1.39)	11(1.02)
2017	823(82.81)	78(7.83)	32(3.22)	39(3.92)	9(0.91)	13(1.31)
2018	1 090(86.31)	87(6.88)	37(2.93)	30(2.38)	11(0.87)	8(0.63)
2019	1 055(85.43)	104(8.42)	15(1.21)	38(3.08)	11(0.89)	12(0.97)
2020	927(85.60)	80(7.38)	17(1.57)	41(3.79)	12(1.11)	6(0.55)
2021	767(84.19)	67(7.36)	30(3.29)	32(3.51)	7(0.77)	8(0.88)
2022	878(84.34)	85(8.17)	25(2.41)	35(3.35)	8(0.77)	10(0.96)
2023	844(82.42)	84(8.21)	20(1.94)	65(6.35)	6(0.59)	5(0.49)
合计Total	11 745(76.69)	1 379(9.02)	968(6.31)	789(5.15)	251(1.64)	183(1.19)
注：①以x±s表示；②以人数(占比/%)表示。 Note: ①x±s; ② Number of people (proportion/%).

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2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.010

通讯作者:
宋肖肖，E-mail：ynsxx@126.com

岳太科，E-mail：dhcdcyq@126.com

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Hepatitis C virus epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

Corresponding author: YUE Taike, E-mail: dhcdcyq@126.com; SONG Xiaoxiao, E-mail: ynsxx@126.com

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2005—2023年德宏傣族景颇族自治州丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.010

通讯作者: 宋肖肖，E-mail：ynsxx@126.com 岳太科，E-mail：dhcdcyq@126.com

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Hepatitis C virus epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering in Dehong Prefecture from 2005 to 2023

Corresponding author: YUE Taike, E-mail: dhcdcyq@126.com; SONG Xiaoxiao, E-mail: ynsxx@126.com

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通讯作者:
宋肖肖，E-mail：ynsxx@126.com

岳太科，E-mail：dhcdcyq@126.com