2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧对居民死亡的急性效应

陈瑞; 杨永宏; 魏巧珍; 樊玉芳

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.011

2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧对居民死亡的急性效应

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.011

甘肃省疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科，兰州 730000

基金项目:

甘肃省自然科学基金 24JRRA1153

甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目 2023YB061

详细信息

通讯作者:
樊玉芳，E-mail: 1511272655@qq.com

中图分类号: R122.7
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-18
- 修回日期: 2024-10-17
- 网络出版日期: 2025-04-11
- 刊出日期: 2025-03-10

Acute effects of atmospheric ozone on residential mortality in Lanzhou City, 2014-2023

Department of Environmental Sanitation, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China

Funds:

Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province 24JRRA1153

Project of Gansu Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning 2023YB061

More Information

Corresponding author: FAN Yufang, E-mail: 1511272655@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧(ozone, O₃)对居民死亡的急性影响。方法收集2014—2023年兰州市的环境空气质量、气象和居民死因监测数据，采用时间序列分析方法定量研究O₃暴露与居民死亡之间的关系，并进行疾病、性别和年龄的分层分析。结果 2014—2023年兰州市O₃的日最大8 h平均浓度为91.0 μg/m³。对于不同种类死亡，单污染物模型分析结果显示，lag 4 d时，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，居民非意外死亡风险增加0.408%(95% CI: 0.073%~0.744%); lag 2 d和lag 4 d时，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，循环系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.478%(95% CI: 0.025%~0.933%)和0.578%(95% CI: 0.139%~1.020%)。单污染物累积效应中，O₃在lag 0~4 d至lag 0~7 d时对非意外死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P＜0.05)，效应值在lag 0~5 d最大，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，居民非意外死亡风险增加0.831%(95% CI: 0.174%~1.490%); O₃在lag 0~2 d至lag 0~7 d时对循环系统疾病死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P＜0.05)，效应值在lag 0~5 d最大，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，居民非意外死亡风险增加1.420%(95% CI: 0.555%~2.290%)。对于不同性别和年龄死亡效应分析，单污染物模型中，O₃在lag 2~lag 4 d时对女性和≥65岁人群死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P＜0.05)，对于女性，效应值在lag 4 d最大，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，女性死亡风险增加0.636%(95% CI: 0.154%~1.120%); 对于≥65岁人群，效应值在lag 3 d最大，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，≥65岁人群死亡风险增加0.613%(95% CI: 0.198%~1.030%)。单污染物累积效应中，O₃在lag 0~3 d至lag 0~4 d时对男性死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P＜0.05)，效应值在lag 0~4 d最大，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，男性死亡风险增加0.775%(95% CI: 0.028%~1.530%); O₃在lag 0~2 d至lag 0~7 d时对女性和≥65岁人群死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P＜0.05)，效应值均在lag 0~4 d最大，O₃浓度每升高10 μg/m³，女性和≥65岁人群死亡风险分别增加1.640%(95% CI: 0.750%~2.540%)、1.580%(95% CI: 0.808%~2.360%)。结论 2014—2023年兰州市大气O₃对居民非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡存在急性效应，女性和≥65岁老年人对O₃暴露更为敏感。
- 臭氧 /
- 死亡 /
- 时间序列分析
Abstract: Objective To investigate the acute impact of atmospheric ozone (O₃) on resident mortality in Lanzhou City. Methods Ambient air quality, meteorological and residential cause of death monitoring data were collected from 2014 to 2023 in Lanzhou City, and time series analysis method was used to quantitatively study the relationship between O₃ exposure and residential deaths, with disease, gender and age stratification. Results The daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O₃ in Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023 was 91.0 μg/m³. For different types of mortality, in the single-pollutant model, at lag 4 d, for every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration, the risk of non-accidental death for the population increased by 0.408% (95% CI: 0.073%-0.744%). The risk of death from circulatory disease increased by 0.478% (95% CI: 0.025%-0.933%) and 0.578% (95% CI: 0.139%-1.020%) for every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration at lag 2 d and lag 4 d, respectively. Among the cumulative effects of single pollutants, the differences in the effects of O₃ on non-accidental deaths from lag 0-4 d to lag 0-7 d were all statistically significant (all P < 0.05). The effect value was largest at lag 0-5 d, with a 0.831% (95% CI: 0.174%-1.490%) increase in the risk of non-accidental death for the population for every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration. The differences in the effects of O₃ on death from circulatory diseases from lag 0-2 d to lag 0-7 d were all statistically significant (all P < 0.05), with the effect value being greatest at lag 0-5 d. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration, the risk of non-accidental death in the population increased by 1.420% (95% CI: 0.555%-2.290%). For the analyses of mortality effects by gender and age, the differences in the effects of O₃ from lag 2 d to lag 4 d on deaths in females and those ≥65 years old in the single-pollutant model were statistically significant (all P < 0.05), and for females, the effect value was largest at lag 4 d. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration, the risk of death in females increased by 0.636% (95% CI: 0.154%-1.120%). For people ≥65 years of age, the effect value was largest at lag 3 d. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration, the risk of death for people ≥65 years of age increased by 0.613% (95% CI: 0.198%-1.030%). Among the cumulative effects of single pollutants, the difference in the effect of O₃ on male mortality from lag 0-3 d to lag 0-4 d were all statistically significant (all P < 0.05), with the effect value being the largest at lag 0-4 d. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration, the risk of male mortality increased by 0.775% (95% CI: 0.028%-1.530%). The difference in the effect of O₃ on death in lag 0-2 d to lag 0-7 d was statistically significant for both females and those ≥65 years of age (all P < 0.05), the effect values were all largest at lag 0-4 d. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃ concentration, the risk of death increased by 1.640%(95% CI: 0.750%-2.540%) for women and 1.580% (95% CI: 0.808 %-2.360%) for people ≥65 years of age from 2014 to 2023. Conclusions There is an acute effect of atmospheric O₃ on non-accidental deaths and deaths from circulatory diseases in the population of Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023, with females and ≥65 year olds being more sensitive to O₃ exposure.
- Ozone /
- Death /
- Time series analysis

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图 1 大气O₃与居民死亡效应的敏感性分析

O₃: 臭氧; NO₂: 二氧化氮; PM_2.5: 细颗粒物; SO₂: 二氧化硫。

Figure 1. Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric O₃ and resident death effect

O₃: ozone; NO₂: nitrogen dioxide; PM_2.5: fine particulate matter; SO₂: sulfur dioxide.

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表 1 2014—2023年兰州市逐日大气污染物、气象因素及居民死亡基本情况

Table 1. Daily air pollutants, meteorological factors, and basic resident death statistics in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2023

变量 Variable	人数 Number of people	最小值 Min	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	最大值 Max	x±s
PM₁₀/(μg·m^-3)		17.0	62.0	89.0	125.0	3 620.0	106.5±108.3
PM_2.5/(μg·m^-3)		10.0	27.0	39.0	55.0	679.0	44.7±27.6
NO₂/(μg·m^-3)		10.0	33.0	45.0	59.0	150.0	47.5±20.2
O₃/(μg·m^-3)		14.0	64.0	91.0	122.0	219.0	94.3±37.7
SO₂/(μg·m^-3)		4.0	10.0	15.0	24.0	84.0	19.1±12.3
CO/(mg·m^-3)		0	0.7	1.0	1.3	4.8	1.1±0.6
平均温度Average temperature/℃		-12.3	2.2	12.6	20.2	30.8	11.4±10.0
平均湿度Average humidity/%		12.0	38.0	49.0	61.0	96.0	49.8±15.4
日均风速Average daily wind speed/(m·s^-1)		0.1	0.9	1.1	1.3	3.1	1.1±0.3
气压Pressure/hPa		833.0	844.1	848.1	852.3	866.3	848.3±5.5
非意外死亡Non-accidental death	172 431	1.0	38.0	46.0	55.0	231.0	47.3±17.7
循环系统疾病死亡Mortality due to circulatory diseases	76 574	0	15.0	20.0	25.0	113.0	21.0±9.5
呼吸系统疾病死亡Mortality due to respiratory diseases	22 464	0	4.0	5.0	8.0	69.0	6.2±5.0

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表 2 2014—2023年兰州市大气污染物和气象因素的相关性

Table 2. Correlation between air pollutants and meteorological factors in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2023

变量 Variable	PM₁₀/(μg·m^-3)	PM_2.5/(μg·m^-3)	NO₂/(μg·m^-3)	O₃/(μg·m^-3)	SO₂/(μg·m^-3)	CO/(mg·m^-3)	平均温度 Average temperature/℃	平均湿度 Average humidity/%	日均风速 Average daily wind speed/(m·s^-1)
非意外死亡Non-accidental death	-0.112^①	-0.141^①	-0.133^①	0.144^①	-0.092^①	-0.126^①	-0.102^①	-0.231^①	0.015
循环系统疾病死亡Mortality due to circulatory diseases	-0.092^①	-0.113^①	-0.121^①	0.110^①	-0.071	-0.115^①	-0.134^①	-0.231^①	-0.003
呼吸系统疾病死亡Mortality due to respiratory diseases	0.041^①	0.041^①	-0.016	0.004	0.074^①	0.058^①	-0.164^①	-0.171^①	-0.010
PM₁₀/(μg·m^-3)	1.000	0.880^①	0.624^①	-0.300^①	0.605^①	0.550^①	-0.452^①	-0.248^①	-0.101^①
PM_2.5/(μg·m^-3)		1.000	0.676^①	-0.479^①	0.682^①	0.706^①	-0.576^①	-0.078^①	-0.175^①
NO₂/(μg·m^-3)			1.000	-0.277^①	0.673^①	0.696^①	-0.461^①	0.009	-0.270^①
O₃/(μg·m^-3)				1.000	-0.466^①	-0.491^①	0.693^①	-0.199^①	0.236^①
SO₂/(μg·m^-3)					1.000	0.783^①	-0.643^①	-0.112^①	-0.233^①
CO/(mg·m^-3)						1.000	-0.576^①	0.024	-0.235^①
平均温度Average temperature/℃							1.000	-0.033^①	0.263^①
平均湿度Average humidity/%								1.000	-0.187^①
注：① P＜0.05。 Note: ① P＜0.05.

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表 3 2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧对居民死亡的单日效应和累积效应

Table 3. Single-day effect and cumulative effect of atmospheric O₃ on resident death in Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023

时间 Time/d	ER值value(95% CI)/%
时间 Time/d	非意外死亡 Non-accidental death	循环系统疾病死亡 Mortality due to circulatory diseases	呼吸系统疾病死亡 Mortality due to respiratory diseases
Lag 0	0.197(-0.172~0.567)	0.262(-0.221~0.748)	0.014(-0.787~0.821)
Lag 1	0.025(-0.342~0.393)	0.329(-0.153~0.813)	-0.196(-0.995~0.609)
Lag 2	0.334(-0.012~0.681)	0.478(0.025~0.933)^①	0.015(-0.739~0.774)
Lag 3	0.231(-0.105~0.569)	0.323(-0.118~0.767)	-0.042(-0.776~0.697)
Lag 4	0.408(0.073~0.744)^①	0.578(0.139~1.020)^①	0.222(-0.508~0.957)
Lag 5	0.157(-0.177~0.492)	0.362(-0.076~0.802)	0.044(-0.685~0.778)
Lag 6	0.001(-0.332~0.336)	0.090(-0.347~0.529)	-0.118(-0.845~0.615)
Lag 7	0.008(-0.324~0.342)	-0.074(-0.509~0.363)	0.331(-0.397~1.060)
Lag 0~1	0.182(-0.288~0.655)	0.484(-0.134~1.100)	-0.146(-1.160~0.882)
Lag 0~2	0.426(-0.110~0.964)	0.803(0.100~1.510)^①	-0.113(-1.270~1.060)
Lag 0~3	0.549(-0.032~1.130)	0.951(0.188~1.720)^①	-0.142(-1.400~1.130)
Lag 0~4	0.783(0.162~1.410)^①	1.260(0.449~2.090)^①	0.032(-1.310~1.390)
Lag 0~5	0.831(0.174~1.490)^①	1.420(0.555~2.290)^①	0.051(-1.370~1.500)
Lag 0~6	0.799(0.106~1.500)^①	1.410(0.503~2.330)^①	-0.010(-1.510~1.520)
Lag 0~7	0.775(0.049~1.510)^①	1.320(0.361~2.280)^①	0.204(-1.370~1.810)
注：① P＜0.05。 Note: ① P＜0.05.

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表 4 2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧对不同性别、年龄居民死亡的单日效应和累积效应

Table 4. Single-day effect and cumulative effect of atmospheric O₃ on death of residents of different sex and age in Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023

时间 Time/d	ER值value(95% CI)/%
时间 Time/d	男性Male	女性Female	15~＜65岁years	≥65岁years
Lag 0	0.226(-0.219~0.673)	0.387(-0.142~0.919)	0.105(-0.516~0.730)	0.343(-0.111~0.800)
Lag 1	0.146(-0.297~0.591)	0.546(0.020~1.080)^①	0.241(-0.373~0.860)	0.316(-0.133~0.767)
Lag 2	0.399(-0.018~0.819)	0.513(0.017~1.010)^①	-0.005(-0.582~0.576)	0.597(0.173~1.020)^①
Lag 3	0.307(-0.101~0.716)	0.518(0.033~1.000)^①	-0.303(-0.866~0.263)	0.613(0.198~1.030)^①
Lag 4	0.138(-0.266~0.544)	0.636(0.154~1.120)^①	-0.152(-0.712~0.410)	0.547(0.135~0.960)^①
Lag 5	0.050(-0.354~0.455)	0.069(-0.410~0.551)	-0.197(-0.755~0.365)	0.090(-0.319~0.502)
Lag 6	0.076(-0.328~0.482)	-0.274(-0.753~0.207)	-0.260(-0.819~0.303)	-0.054(-0.464~0.358)
Lag 7	-0.078(-0.480~0.327)	0.203(-0.275~0.684)	-0.020(-0.579~0.542)	0.021(-0.388~0.432)
Lag 0~1	0.306(-0.262~0.877)	0.766(0.091~1.450)^①	0.300(-0.498~1.100)	0.548(-0.034~1.130)
Lag 0~2	0.587(-0.060~1.240)	1.070(0.302~1.850)^①	0.263(-0.646~1.180)	0.965(0.300~1.630)^①
Lag 0~3	0.743(0.041~1.450)^①	1.330(0.494~2.170)^①	-0.003(-0.984~0.987)	1.310(0.591~2.040)^①
Lag 0~4	0.775(0.028~1.530)^①	1.640(0.750~2.540)^①	-0.095(-1.140~0.957)	1.580(0.808~2.360)^①
Lag 0~5	0.755(-0.035~1.550)	1.570(0.631~2.530)^①	-0.204(-1.300~0.906)	1.540(0.721~2.360)
Lag 0~6	0.769(-0.065~1.610)	1.350(0.355~2.350)^①	-0.349(-1.500~0.819)	1.430(0.568~2.290)^①
Lag 0~7	0.698(-0.175~1.580)	1.420(0.374~2.470)^①	-0.348(-1.560~0.876)	1.390(0.489~2.300)^①
注：① P＜0.05。 Note: ① P＜0.05.

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