Epidemiologic characteristics and trends of pertussis in Qinghai Province, 2009-2023
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摘要:
目的 分析2009―2023年青海省百日咳流行病学特征与发病趋势，为百日咳防控工作提供可行性依据。 方法 从中国疾病控制预防控制信息系统中收集整理2009―2023年青海省百日咳病例信息，采用描述性流行病学方法分析青海省百日咳病例分布特征。使用R 4.3.1软件进行统计分析，运用Origin 2024软件对疾病分布进行可视化，采用Joinpoint 5.0.2软件分析发病率时间变化趋势。 结果 2009―2023年青海省共报告百日咳病例97例，无死亡病例，年均发病率为0.11/10万。各月均有百日咳病例报告，10月份为发病高峰，累计报告20例。果洛藏族自治州年均发病率最高，为0.39/10万。病例主要集中在＜10岁人群，占发病总数的91.75%(89/97)。2009―2023年青海省百日咳发病率整体呈上升趋势(AAPC=10.10%, P＜0.001)，其中2009―2012年百日咳发病率降低(APC=-37.79%, P=0.006)，2012―2023年百日咳发病率呈上升趋势(APC=28.64%, P＜0.001)。 结论 2009―2023年青海省百日咳报告处于低流行水平，但整体仍呈逐年上升趋势，且以＜10岁人群为主，存在明显的地区差异。建议加强百日咳监测，进一步提高儿童和成年人疫苗接种覆盖率。 -
关键词:
- 百日咳 /
- 流行特征 /
- Joinpoint回归模型 /
- 发病趋势
Abstract:Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of pertussis in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023, to provide a feasible basis for pertussis prevention and control. Methods Pertussis case information from Qinghai Province during 2009-2023 was collected from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of pertussis cases. Statistical analysis was performed using R 4.3.1 software, disease distribution was visualized using Origin 2024 software, and Joinpoint 5.0.2 software was used to analyze temporal trends in incidence rates. Results A total of 97 pertussis cases were reported in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023, with no fatalities and an average annual incidence rate of 0.11/100 000. Cases were reported in all months, with October showing the highest peak at 20 cumulative cases. Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had the highest average annual incidence rate at 0.39/100 000. Cases were predominantly concentrated in the population under 10 years of age, accounting for 91.75% (89/97) of total cases. The overall pertussis incidence rate in Qinghai Province showed an increasing trend from 2009 to 2023 (AAPC=10.10%, P < 0.001), with a significant decrease during 2009-2012 (APC=-37.79%, P=0.006) and an increasing trend during 2012-2023 (APC=28.64%, P < 0.001). Conclusions While pertussis reporting in Qinghai Province remains at relatively low levels from 2009 to 2023, there is an overall yearly increasing trend, primarily affecting young children, with notable regional variations. It is recommended to improve pertussis surveillance and further increase vaccination coverage among both children and adults. -
Key words:
- Pertussis /
- Epidemic characteristics /
- Joinpoint regression model /
- Incidence trend
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图 1 2009―2023年青海省百日咳时间分布变化
A: 青海省百日咳年份分布; B: 青海省百日咳月份分布。
Figure 1. Temporal distribution of pertussis in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023
A: annual distribution of whooping cough in Qinghai Province; B: monthly distribution of whooping cough in Qinghai Province.
图 2 2009―2023年青海省百日咳发病率变化
Figure 2. Heat map of incidence rate of pertussis in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023
表 1 2009―2023年青海省百日咳人群分布情况
Table 1. Distribution of pertussis population in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023
变量
Variable2009―2013年 2014―2018年 2019―2023年 合计 病例数
Number of cases构成比
Proportion/%病例数
Number of cases构成比
Proportion/%病例数
Number of cases构成比
Proportion/%病例数
Number of cases构成比
Proportion/%年龄/岁Age/years 0~＜1 6 46.15 15 75.00 32 50.00 53 54.64 1~＜2 4 30.77 2 10.00 9 14.06 15 15.46 2~＜5 2 15.38 2 10.00 4 6.25 8 8.25 5~＜10 1 7.69 0 0 12 18.25 13 13.40 10~＜20 0 0 0 0 4 6.25 4 4.12 ≥20 0 0 1 5.00 3 4.69 4 4.12 人群类别Papulation category 幼托儿童Preschool children 1 7.69 0 0 3 4.68 4 4.12 散居儿童Scattered children 12 92.31 19 95.00 51 79.69 82 84.54 学生Student 0 0 0 0 7 10.94 7 7.22 其他Other 0 0 1 5.00 3 4.79 4 4.12 
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表 2 2009―2023年青海省百日咳Joinpoint回归分析
Table 2. Joinpoint analysis results of pertussis in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023
变量Variable 年度year APC值value(95% CI)/% AAPC值/% value t值value P值value 男性Male 2009―2011 -53.88(-87.33~67.93) 6.789 -1.334 0.212 2011―2023 22.83(13.45~33.10) 5.703 ＜0.001 女性Female 2009―2014 -9.70(-40.20~36.33) 13.619 -0.552 0.593 2014―2023 29.09(17.98~41.25) 6.320 ＜0.001 合计Total 2009―2012 -37.79(-65.17~-11.36) 10.098① 1.581 0.006 2012―2023 28.64(24.38~37.24) 0.743 ＜0.001 注：① 2009―2023年AAPC值有统计学意义。
Note: ① AAPC value from 2009 to 2023 is statistically significant.
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