Quantitative analysis of population aging on mortality disparities for major non-communicable diseases in China

Objective To estimate the impact of population aging on mortalities for major non-communicable diseases in China. Methods Mortality data from the National Diseases Surveillance System 2006-2013 were acquired to calculate the contribution of population aging to the increase of deaths for major non-communicable diseases, by decomposing the differences of death rates. Results Generally, the mortality rates showed increasing trends for coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lung cancer, liver cancer and traffic injury in China from 2006 to 2013. 76.9%, 178.5%, 51.2%, 105.3% and 22.7% of the increase of deaths caused by lung cancer, liver cancer, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and traffic injury, respectively, were attributed to population aging; furthermore, the contribution of population aging on increase of deaths for lung cancer, liver cancer and coronary heart disease were greater in men than in women, while those on cerebrovascular disease and traffic injury were more serious in women. In addition, population aging contributed more to the increase of deaths caused by lung cancer, liver cancer, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in urban population than their rural counterparts. Conclusions This study indicated that population aging in China will result in sizeable increases in mortalities for liver cancer, lung cancer and cardiovascular disease.These disparities may have implications for public health in both non-communicable chronic disease prevention and health service research.