Analysis of transmission rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in different provinces in China

WANG Yan-fen; WANG Xu-feng; ZHAO Ji-jun

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.010

Volume 23 Issue 5

May 2019

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2019 > 23(5): 540-544

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WANG Yan-fen, WANG Xu-feng, ZHAO Ji-jun. Analysis of transmission rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in different provinces in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(5): 540-544. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.010

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Analysis of transmission rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in different provinces in China

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.010

Complexity Science Institute, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China

Funds:

Shandong Natural Science Foundation ZR2018MH037

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Corresponding author: ZHAO Ji-jun, E-mail: jjzhao@qdu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2018-12-21
Rev Recd Date: 2019-02-19
Publish Date: 2019-05-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To understand the periodicity of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in representative provinces from different climatic zones in China, and to analyze the seasonality and the factors influencing the HFMD transmission rate, to provide a scientific reference for the prevention and treatment of HFMD. Methods Five climate-representative provinces including Hainan, Hunan, Shandong, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia were selected as research objects. Wavelet analysis was used to analyze the cyclic pattern of HFMD incidence. Time series susceptible infected recovered (TSIR) model was established to examine the HFMD transmission rate of the five provinces and of the entire country. The parameters in the TSIR model were estimated by markov chain monte carlo (MCMC). Linear regression model was used to analyze the effects of climate factors, school terms and the Spring Festival travel rush on the transmission rate of HFMD. Results (1) HFMD incidence in the provinces and the entire country exhibited annual or semi-annual cycles and the transmission rates in all provinces showed obvious seasonality with similar patterns. February to May was the peak period of HFMD transmission rate. (2) The transmission rate of HFMD was affected by the climate or the contact rate, depending on which factor was dominant. Conclusions The transmission rate of HFMD had obvious seasonality, which had increased significantly in February, and it was necessary to strengthen its prevention and control during the Spring Festival.
- HFMD,
- Transmission rate,
- Seasonality,
- Climate,
- School terms,
- Spring Festival travel rush

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References

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