The predictive model of birth defect risk based on evidence-based medicine

ZHAO Jing-hua; LI Lu; CAO Hong-yan; SONG Chun-ying; GUO Xing-ping; ZHANG Yan-bo

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.024

Volume 23 Issue 9

Sep. 2019

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2019 > 23(9): 1143-1147

ZHAO Jing-hua, LI Lu, CAO Hong-yan, SONG Chun-ying, GUO Xing-ping, ZHANG Yan-bo. The predictive model of birth defect risk based on evidence-based medicine[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(9): 1143-1147. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.024

Citation:

ZHAO Jing-hua, LI Lu, CAO Hong-yan, SONG Chun-ying, GUO Xing-ping, ZHANG Yan-bo. The predictive model of birth defect risk based on evidence-based medicine[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(9): 1143-1147. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.024

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The predictive model of birth defect risk based on evidence-based medicine

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.024

1.
Department of Health Statistics, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China
2.
Research Institute of Population and Family Planning Commission of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030006, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foudation of China 71403156

More Information

Corresponding author: SONG Chun-ying, E-mail: 16398656@qq.com; GUO Xing-ping, E-mail: 13934527993@163.com; ZHANG Yan-bo, E-mail: yanbozh@126.com
Received Date: 2019-03-08
Rev Recd Date: 2019-06-25
Publish Date: 2019-09-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective The Rothman-Keller model was used to establish a predictive model for the risk of birth defects on the basis of evidence-based medicine, which so as to provide the basis for pertinent interventions in China. Methods First, the odds ratio (OR) value of risk factors for birth defects was obtained by evaluating the literature of meta-analysis, and the risk score table of the Rothman-Keller model was constructed. Then the simulation data was used to build the model, the risk boundary value of risk prediction, and finally the actual data to was used for verification. Results The main risk factors for 20 birth defects were collected through 17 articles. In the actual data of Shanxi Province, the actual incidence rate of high-risk populations screened by Rothman-Keller model was 10.9%, and it was statistically different from other groups (χ²=147.58, P < 0.001). In addition, the rothman-keller model identified all patients with a family history of birth defects as high-risk. Conclusions Through the meta-analysis literature on birth defects in China, the study find the main risk factors and construct a risk prediction model. It can be used to predict the risk of birth defects and help screen high-risk groups. At the same time, it provides ideas for predicting the risk of other diseases.
- Birth defects,
- Evidence-based medicine,
- Risk factors,
- Risk prediction model

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References(20)

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