The dynamic response relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and qitameteorological factors in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2018

WANG Li-juan; LI Juan-sheng; LIU Xin-feng; YUAN Yan; ZHOU Jian-hun; JIANG Xiao-juan; MENG Lei

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.021

Volume 25 Issue 11

Nov. 2021

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2021 > 25(11): 1354-1359

WANG Li-juan, LI Juan-sheng, LIU Xin-feng, YUAN Yan, ZHOU Jian-hun, JIANG Xiao-juan, MENG Lei. The dynamic response relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and qitameteorological factors in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(11): 1354-1359. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.021

Citation:

WANG Li-juan, LI Juan-sheng, LIU Xin-feng, YUAN Yan, ZHOU Jian-hun, JIANG Xiao-juan, MENG Lei. The dynamic response relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and qitameteorological factors in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(11): 1354-1359. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.021

Citation:

WANG Li-juan, LI Juan-sheng, LIU Xin-feng, YUAN Yan, ZHOU Jian-hun, JIANG Xiao-juan, MENG Lei. The dynamic response relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and qitameteorological factors in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(11): 1354-1359. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.021

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The dynamic response relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and qitameteorological factors in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2018

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.021

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China

Funds:

Science Foundation Project Gansu Province 18JR3RA040

National Science and Technology Major Project of China 2017ZX10103006

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Juan-sheng, E-mail: lijsh@lzu.edu.cn; MENG Lei, E-mail: mleicdc@163.com
Received Date: 2021-01-21
Rev Recd Date: 2021-05-01

Available Online: 2021-12-04

Publish Date: 2021-11-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To use a vector autoregressive(VAR) model to analyze the dynamic response relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis(JE) and meteorological factors in Gansu Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of JE in different weather conditions. Methods The incidence of JE from January 2014 to December 2018 and the meteorological data of the same period were used to establish a multivariate VAR model, and impulse response and variance decomposition were used to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of JE quantitatively. Results The goodness of fit of the VAR(2) model was 0.95, the adjusted goodness of fit was 0.95, and the theil inequality coefficient was 0.06. The contribution of average temperature, hours of sunshine and rainfall to the change of JE incidence was 9.52%、2.13% and 38.62%, respectively, to the six period. Conclusions The VAR(2) model can be used to analyze the dynamic relationship between the incidence of JE and meteorological factors. The prevention and control of JE, the prediction and early warning can be combined with local meteorological factors.
- Japanese encephalitis,
- Incidence,
- Meteorological factors,
- Vector autoregressive model

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References(13)

References

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