Diversity trend of sex differences in disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050

GUO Shuai; LUO Ya-nan; ZHENG Xiao-ying

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.013

Volume 27 Issue 2

Feb. 2023

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2023 > 27(2): 201-208

GUO Shuai, LUO Ya-nan, ZHENG Xiao-ying. Diversity trend of sex differences in disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(2): 201-208. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.013

Citation:

GUO Shuai, LUO Ya-nan, ZHENG Xiao-ying. Diversity trend of sex differences in disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(2): 201-208. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.013

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Diversity trend of sex differences in disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.013

GUO Shuai^{1, 4},
LUO Ya-nan²,
ZHENG Xiao-ying^{3, 4
,
,}

1.
Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2.
Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
3.
School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100073, China
4.
PUK-APEC Health Science Academy (HeSAY), Beijing 100871, China

Funds:

National Social Science Foundation of China (Major Program) 21ZD107

National Science and Technology Major Project SQ2022YFC3600291

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHENG Xiao-ying, E-mail: zhengxiaoying@sph.pumc.edu.cn
Received Date: 2022-05-04
Rev Recd Date: 2022-09-22

Available Online: 2023-02-20

Publish Date: 2023-02-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the trends in health expectancy and its gender differences among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050, and to provide evidence and clues for the relationship between longevity and health and its sex differences in the future. Methods Based on the 2010 Census, and the National Sample Surveys on Disability in 1987 and 2006, population-development environment model (PDE) and epidemiological methods (EPI) were used to predict mortality and disability rates. The Sullivan method was used to estimate age-sex-specific disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy with disability (LwD) for the population 50 years and older between 2020 and 2050. Results Life expectancy (LE) among older adults continues to increase. The rise in LE was primarily driven by the increase in LwD for women, while for men, the contribution of the increase in DFLE was higher. Expansion of morbidity was found in women under 75 years old and men under 65 years of age and was less pronounced in men. Women aged 80 years and older will spend more than half of their remaining life with disability, which is larger than men. Women had a higher DFLE presented than men, the absolute sex gaps in DFLE presented narrow over time but remain relatively stable among the oldest-old. By contrast, as for the relative terms, the DFLE was lower in women than in men, and the sex gaps will narrow after 2040 and become more pronounced among the oldest-old. Conclusions The functional status of older adults in China will deteriorate in the future. The relative sex differences in DFLE will narrow after 2040 under the scenario of the high proportions of LE with disability. It should establish a comprehensive long-term care system as soon as possible, and pay more attention to the functional ability of women female oldest old.
- Health expectancy,
- Sex difference,
- Multivariable trajectory

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References(18)

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