Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand, foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model

ZHANG Hao-dan; GUI Guo-ping; GUO Feng; ZHA Ri-sheng; SUN Hong-peng; ZHANG Min

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.017

Volume 27 Issue 3

Mar. 2023

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ZHANG Hao-dan, GUI Guo-ping, GUO Feng, ZHA Ri-sheng, SUN Hong-peng, ZHANG Min. Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand, foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(3): 339-344. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.017

Citation:

ZHANG Hao-dan, GUI Guo-ping, GUO Feng, ZHA Ri-sheng, SUN Hong-peng, ZHANG Min. Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand, foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(3): 339-344. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.017

Citation:

ZHANG Hao-dan, GUI Guo-ping, GUO Feng, ZHA Ri-sheng, SUN Hong-peng, ZHANG Min. Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand, foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(3): 339-344. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.017

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Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand, foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.017

1.
Department of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, Suzhou National Hi-tech District for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215011, China
2.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China

Funds:

Youth Program of Science and Technology for Invigorating Health Through Science and Education in Suzhou KJXW2020084

Gusu Doctor Stars Youth Talent Health Promotion Project in Suzhou 202110

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Min, E-mail: zmsndcdc@126.com
Received Date: 2021-12-02
Rev Recd Date: 2022-02-15

Available Online: 2023-04-04

Publish Date: 2023-03-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To establish a prediction model based on the incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in a district of Suzhou in recent years, to judge the trend of HFMD incidence, and to predict the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on HFMD. Methods Based on the HFMD surveillance database from January 2009 to December 2019, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was selected to establish the HFMD data prediction model to predict the number of HFMD cases from January to October 2020. The differentials between the actual values and the predicted values were compared to confirm the change of HFMD incidence. Intervention variables were added in the optimal SARIMA model to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence of HFMD in children. Results Compared with the incidence of HFMD in the same period of 2019, the incidence of HFMD in children decreased from January to October in 2020. The actual and predicted incidence trends of HFMD in children from January to October in 2020 were significantly different, and the actual case numbers were all lower than those in the prediction, and the deviation degrees from February to September in 2020 were all more than 100%. After adding intervention variables in the SARIMA model, the coefficient of intervention variables was -135.4 (P=0.010), suggesting that the incidence of HFMD in children decreased by about 135 cases per month on average. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in children in a district of Suzhou from January to October in 2020 was lower than that in the historical period. It is inferred that strict and normalized prevention and control measures have not only effectively controlled the outbreak of COVID-19, but also affected the incidence of HFMD in children.
- COVID-19,
- Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model,
- Hand, foot and mouth disease

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References(11)

References

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