Epidemiological characteristics analysis of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021 and prediction

HE Yaping; WU Guohui; ZHANG Wei; LIN Jing; ZHOU Chao

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.002

Volume 27 Issue 7

Jul. 2023

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HE Yaping, WU Guohui, ZHANG Wei, LIN Jing, ZHOU Chao. Epidemiological characteristics analysis of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021 and prediction[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(7): 751-755. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.002

Citation:

HE Yaping, WU Guohui, ZHANG Wei, LIN Jing, ZHOU Chao. Epidemiological characteristics analysis of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021 and prediction[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(7): 751-755. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.002

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Epidemiological characteristics analysis of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021 and prediction

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.002

Institute for Prevention and Control of STD/AIDS, Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China

Funds:

Chongqing Natural Science Foundation Project cstc2021jcyj-msxmX1171

Medical Research of Chongqing Science and Health Joint Project 2022GDRC017

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHOU Chao, E-mail: 12818085@qq.com
Received Date: 2022-12-08
Rev Recd Date: 2023-04-19

Available Online: 2023-08-08

Publish Date: 2023-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Chongqing, predict its incidence, and provide scientific reference for prevention and control. Methods Data of hepatitis C cases was collected from the Direct Reporting System of Infectious Disease Information Network in China. We then analyzed the time, groups, and regional distributions, and predicted the incidence rate for 2025. Results From 2004 to 2021, 59 663 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Chongqing, with the reported incidence rising from 1.64/100 000 in 2004 to 19.10/100 000 in 2021, exhibiting an average annual percent change rate of 15.50% (95% CI: 12.90%-18.20%). The majority of cases were within the 25- < 65 age range (85.59%), with the primary age group shifting from 25- < 35 years (34.89%) in 2004 to 45- < 55 years (39.04%) in 2021. Farmers (31.23%) and the unemployed (30.72%) constituted the major occupational categories. Most cases were reported from the central urban area and western Chongqing, with the top five districts in terms of case numbers being Dazu (3 881 cases), Jiangbei (3 771 cases), Yuzhong (3 646 cases), Jiangjin (3 207 cases), and Shapingba (3 113 cases). If no effective interventions are implemented, the projected incidence rate would rise to 24.45/100 000 (95% CI: 22.24/100 000-26.66/100 000) by 2025. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing is rising, with the majority of cases being middle-aged and elderly farmers mostly residing in the central urban and western areas. The incidence is projected to continue rising in the absence of effective measures. Therefore, future intervention efforts should target middle-aged and elderly farmers residing in these areas.
- Hepatitis C,
- Epidemiologic characteristics,
- Autoregressive integrated moving average model

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References(11)

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