Trends and predictions of Parkinson′s disease burden in China

WANG Zihao; XIA Huan; WANG Xiaobei; LI Peishan; GAO Meirong; DU Xinyu; YANG Xinling

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.06.003

Volume 29 Issue 6

Jun. 2025

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WANG Zihao, XIA Huan, WANG Xiaobei, LI Peishan, GAO Meirong, DU Xinyu, YANG Xinling. Trends and predictions of Parkinson′s disease burden in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(6): 636-640. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.06.003

Citation:

WANG Zihao, XIA Huan, WANG Xiaobei, LI Peishan, GAO Meirong, DU Xinyu, YANG Xinling. Trends and predictions of Parkinson′s disease burden in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(6): 636-640. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.06.003

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Trends and predictions of Parkinson′s disease burden in China

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.06.003

WANG Zihao^{1, 2},
XIA Huan^{1, 2},
WANG Xiaobei¹,
LI Peishan^{1, 2},
GAO Meirong³,
DU Xinyu⁴,
YANG Xinling^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Urumqi 830054, China
2.
Department of Neurology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830063, China
3.
The Second Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
4.
Department of Neurology, Jiangsu Province Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82371258

Key Research and Development Program of Xinjiang Autonomous Region 2023B03003

Science and Technology Innovation Leading Talent Project 2022TSYCLJ0066

Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia SKL-HIDCA-2022-NKX3

More Information

Corresponding author: YANG Xinling, E-mail: yangxinling2014@163.com
Received Date: 2024-11-13
Rev Recd Date: 2025-01-29

Available Online: 2025-07-07

Publish Date: 2025-06-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective This study aims to investigate the prevalence and incidence trends of Parkinson′s disease (PD) in China to provide scientific evidence for developing PD prevention and control policies. Methods The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the prevalence and incidence of PD in China from 1990 to 2021, assessing the impact of different age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts on the trends of PD. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the PD incidence from 2024 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate of PD in China increased from 12.8 per 100 000 to 24.3 per 100 000 (P < 0.001), while the mortality rate decreased from 6.80 per 100 000 to 5.03 per 100 000 (P < 0.001). The incidence rate of PD rapidly increased among individuals aged 30 and above, with the highest number of cases observed in the 70- < 75 age group, reaching 81 945 cases. Based on the ARIMA model, it is predicted that by 2030, the national incidence rate of PD will rise to 26.52 per 100 000 (95% CI: 24.73/100 000-28.31/100 000), with the rate for men at 35.20 per 100 000 (95% CI: 33.20/100 000-37.21/100 000) and for women at 20.96 per 100 000 (95% CI: 20.27/100 000-21.65/100 000). Conclusions China′s PD burden is worsening, predominantly affecting the elderly, with observed gender differences. The incidence of PD is expected to continue rising in the future, necessitating further strengthening of early diagnosis, prevention, and management of PD to reduce its public health burden.
- Parkinson′s disease,
- Disease burden,
- Epidemiological trends,
- Age-period-cohort model

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References(15)

References

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