Study on the disease burden and changing trends of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021

DING Lei; WANG Xinghua; LIANG Yali; ZHU Yu

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.008

Volume 29 Issue 8

Aug. 2025

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DING Lei, WANG Xinghua, LIANG Yali, ZHU Yu. Study on the disease burden and changing trends of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 913-921. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.008

Citation:

DING Lei, WANG Xinghua, LIANG Yali, ZHU Yu. Study on the disease burden and changing trends of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 913-921. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.008

Citation:

DING Lei, WANG Xinghua, LIANG Yali, ZHU Yu. Study on the disease burden and changing trends of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 913-921. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.008

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Study on the disease burden and changing trends of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.008

DING Lei¹,
WANG Xinghua^{2
,
,},
LIANG Yali¹,
ZHU Yu^{1
,
,}

1.
Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu 241002, China
2.
Department of Infectious Disease Control and Preventive, Jinghu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhu 241000, China

Funds:

The Natural Science Fund of the Education Department of Anhui Province 2024AH051939

The Scientific Research Fund of Wannan Medical College WK2024SZD10

The Scientific Research Fund of Wannan Medical College WK202113

The Scientific Research Fund of Wannan Medical College WYRCQD2023020

Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students of China 202010368001

Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students of Anhui Province S202210368014

Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students of Anhui Province S202210368019

More Information

Corresponding author: WANG Xinghua, E-mail: leo86wang@126.com; ZHU Yu, E-mail: kutuomonk@wnmc.edu.cn
Received Date: 2025-01-27
Rev Recd Date: 2025-05-13
Publish Date: 2025-08-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective This study aims to investigate the disease burden and temporal trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021, providing a scientific foundation for optimizing prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on TBL cancer-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by air pollution in China (1990-2021) were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database (GBD 2021). Joinpoint 5.0.2 regression analysis was applied to assess trends in the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to explore age, period, and cohort effects on mortality risk, while a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was developed to project ASMR and ASDR trends from 2022 to 2036. Results The annual death toll increased from 108.470 thousand in 1990 to 211.370 thousand in 2021 [average annual percent change (AAPC)=2.140%, P < 0.001]. However, ASMR declined from 13.558 to 10.106 per 100 000 (AAPC=-0.972%, P<0.001), and ASDR decreased from 336.299 to 226.502 per 100 000 (AAPC=-1.299%, P<0.001). APC analysis demonstrated statistically significant variations in mortality outcomes across age groups, periods, and birth cohorts (P < 0.001). The BAPC model projected a sustained decline in ASMR and ASDR for the total population and males from 2022 to 2036, whereas an upward trend was predicted for females. Conclusions Analysis reveals that after 2004, China′s ASMR and ASDR for TBL cancer attributable to air pollution among the entire population show a continuous downward trend. However, predictive models indicate that these indicators for women may begin to rise. Enhanced air pollution mitigation and health interventions are imperative, with prioritized attention to female populations.
- Tracheal cancer,
- Bronchus cancer,
- Lung cancer,
- Burden of disease,
- Disability-adjusted life years

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References(22)

References

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