Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of bacillary dysentery disease in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021

WANG Shuzi; ZHANG Jiyu; DAI Bingqin; HAN Yang; ZHANG Yixin; SUN Chengxi

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.011

Volume 29 Issue 8

Aug. 2025

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WANG Shuzi, ZHANG Jiyu, DAI Bingqin, HAN Yang, ZHANG Yixin, SUN Chengxi. Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of bacillary dysentery disease in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 937-942. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.011

Citation:

WANG Shuzi, ZHANG Jiyu, DAI Bingqin, HAN Yang, ZHANG Yixin, SUN Chengxi. Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of bacillary dysentery disease in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 937-942. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.011

Citation:

WANG Shuzi, ZHANG Jiyu, DAI Bingqin, HAN Yang, ZHANG Yixin, SUN Chengxi. Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of bacillary dysentery disease in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 937-942. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.011

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Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of bacillary dysentery disease in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.011

Business Management Department (Emergency Office), Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China

Funds:

The Youth Innovation Fund of Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention QC-202304

Shandong Provincial Public Health Key Specialties Construction Project Lu Wei Han〔2023〕NO.621

More Information

Corresponding author: SUN Chengxi, E-mail: sunchengxi-1@163.com
Received Date: 2025-02-26
Rev Recd Date: 2025-05-30
Publish Date: 2025-08-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To investigate spatio-temporal trends of bacillary dysentery in Shandong Province and explore the association between bacillary dysentery and meteorological, population, economic, hygiene and environmental factors. Methods A Bayesian space-time model was employed to identify the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of bacillary dysentery cases and quantify the potential association between bacillary dysentery cases and meteorological and social environmental variables in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021. Results During 2005-2021, 145 644 bacillary dysentery cases were reported in Shandong Province. Temporally, the risk of bacillary dysentery showed a decreasing trend, and peaked from June to September. Geographically, hot-spot areas were distributed in Weihai, Zibo, Yantai, Jinan, and Weifang cities. The incidence risk for bacillary dysentery was associated with the monthly average temperature (RR=1.030, 95% CI: 1.025-1.034), monthly rainfall (RR=1.001, 95% CI: 1.001-1.001), natural population growth rate (RR=1.005, 95% CI: 1.002-1.007), gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RR=0.999, 95% CI: 0.999-0.999), GDP per capita growth rate (RR=0.987, 95% CI: 0.980-0.994), number of health technicians (RR=0.999, 95% CI: 0.999-0.999), and green coverage (RR=0.993, 95% CI: 0.992-0.995). Conclusions The incidence risk for bacillary dysentery was associated with meteorological and social environmental factors. It is necessary to pay attention to high-risk areas, provide health advisories, and make preparations for epidemic response during epidemic periods.
- Bacillary dysentery,
- Meteorological factors,
- Social environmental variables,
- Bayesian space-time model

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References(21)

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