WANG Chaoyi, ZHANG Chunhui, ZHANG Yiyu, YANG Jinghan, KONG Yujia, SHI Fuyan, WANG Suzhen. A study on the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and aggregation of acquired immune deficiency syndrome in China from 2012 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 982-987. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.018
Citation:
WANG Chaoyi, ZHANG Chunhui, ZHANG Yiyu, YANG Jinghan, KONG Yujia, SHI Fuyan, WANG Suzhen. A study on the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and aggregation of acquired immune deficiency syndrome in China from 2012 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 982-987. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.018
WANG Chaoyi, ZHANG Chunhui, ZHANG Yiyu, YANG Jinghan, KONG Yujia, SHI Fuyan, WANG Suzhen. A study on the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and aggregation of acquired immune deficiency syndrome in China from 2012 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 982-987. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.018
Citation:
WANG Chaoyi, ZHANG Chunhui, ZHANG Yiyu, YANG Jinghan, KONG Yujia, SHI Fuyan, WANG Suzhen. A study on the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and aggregation of acquired immune deficiency syndrome in China from 2012 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 982-987. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.018
Objective The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of acquired immune deficiency syndrome(AIDS) incidence and areas of concentration in China from 2012 to 2021, and to provide an evidence for prevention and control.Methods Data on AIDS incidence and demographic information in China from 2012 to 2021 were obtained from the Public Health Science Data Centre, the China Health and Health Statistics Yearbook, and the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatiotemporal scan statistics, and standard deviation ellipse (SDE) methods were used to analyze trends in disease prevalence, spatiotemporal characteristics, and characteristics of affected regions, respectively.Results From 2012 to 2019, the incidence of AIDS in China was on the rise annual percentage change(APC)(APC=7.62%, 95% CI: 6.52%-9.92%, P < 0.001), and from 2019 to 2021, there was a decline in the incidence rate(APC=-7.64%, 95% CI: -14.12%-0.74%, P=0.030). Global autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I value increased from 0.240 in 2012 to 0.414 in 2021, indicating an increase in positive spatial autocorrelation. In the local spatial autocorrelation analysis, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region remained in a "high-high" cluster pattern, whereas Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Liaoning Province were consistently in a "low-low" cluster pattern; Henan Province and Sichuan Province changed patterns over time. Hotspot analysis showed that hotspot clusters had formed in Guizhou and other provinces, indicating a spreading trend. The spatio-temporal scan revealed that Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Sichuan Province, Chongqing City and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region were the key areas of the epidemic, and the SDE method suggested that the focus of the disease shifted from Sichuan Province and Chongqing City to the southeast.Conclusions This study reveals the spatio-temporal characteristics of the AIDS epidemic in China; Prevention and control should be based on these patterns to allocate resources accurately and strengthen interventions in key regions.
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