昭阳区1997-2014年HIV感染者和患者空间自相关分析

郑尔达; 康家荣; 刘红艳; 史昌雄; 黎兴颐; 曾博; 虎恩辉; 牛梦霞; 刘红英; 熊安华; 罗吉凯; 陆林; 李洪

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.03.002

昭阳区1997-2014年HIV感染者和患者空间自相关分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.03.002

1. 昆明医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计系, 云南昆明 650500;
2. 昭阳区疾病预防控制中心艾滋病防制科, 云南昭通 653100;
3. 云南省疾病预防控制中心科研教育服务部, 云南昆明 650022;
4. 云南省疾病预防控制中心, 云南昆明 650022

基金项目:

“十二五”国家科技重大专项（2013ZX10004-906）

详细信息

作者简介:
郑尔达(1990-),男,云南昆明人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:艾滋病预防与控制。

中图分类号: R512.91;R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-08-15
- 修回日期: 2016-01-26

Analysis of spatial autocorrelation of HIV infections and patients in Zhaoyang District from 1997 to 2014

1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming 650500, China;
2. Department of HIV/AIDS Control and Prevention, Zhaoyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhaotong 653100, China;
3. Department of Science Research and Education, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China;
4. Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨和分析云南省昭通市昭阳区人类免疫缺陷病毒（human immunodeficiency virus，HIV）感染者和患病者空间自相关及空间分布特征，并分析报告病例热点区域随时间的变化趋势。方法对昭阳区1997-2014年报告的HIV感染者和患者进行全局空间自相关分析和局部空间自相关分析。结果 2002年以后，历年全局Moran's I值均>0，均有统计学意义（均有P<0.05），提示昭阳区HIV感染者和患者空间自相关为正相关，存在聚集性。局部空间自相关分析显示，昭阳区HIV感染者和患者聚集性逐年增大，热点区域逐年增加。双变量全局自相关分析显示，2003年以来昭阳区历年新报告HIV感染者空间聚集性与经异性性接触HIV感染者呈正相关。结论昭阳区HIV感染者和患者分布以城区和城乡结合部为热点，并且以异性性接触传播为主要传播方式逐年向周边乡村蔓延。今后应加强对城区和城乡结合部等热点区域进行艾滋病监测和干预，防止热点区域的扩大和HIV/AIDS的蔓延，同时应加强对农村地区艾滋病的宣传教育。
- HIV /
- 感染 /
- 流行病学研究
Abstract: Objective To explore and analyze spatial autocorrelation and the spatial distribution features of HIV/AIDS in Zhaoyang District, Yunnan province, and discuss the trend of variation with time for the HIV/AIDS cases clustering areas. Methods The reported cases of HIV/AIDS of Zhaoyang District from 1997 to 2014 were collected, and the global spatial autocorrelation analysis and the local spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted by the method from spatial statistics. Results The annual global Moran's I indexes from 2002 to 2014 were higher than 0 (all P<0.05), which indicated that positive spatial autocorrelation existed in HIV/AIDS in Zhaoyang District and there were clusters of HIV/AIDS in Zhaoyang District. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the hot-spot regions expanded with time. Bivariate global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the cluster of annual reported HIV infetions correlated with the increased numbers of annual reported HIV infections via heterosexual transmission. Conclusions The hot-spot regions were in the urban and sub-urban areas of Zhaoyang District that had been expanding to surrounding neighbored villages and towns by heterosexual transmission gradually. For the further prevention and control of the hot-spot regions expanding, it is necessary for us to reinforce the surveillance and propaganda in both hot-spot regions and other towns, while strengthen the awareness and education of HIV in rural areas.
- HIV /
- Epidemiologic studies /
- Infection

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