广东地区肾综合征出血热流行特征与气象因素的ARIMA模型分析

余靓; 梁丽君; 黄平; 郝元涛

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.08.024

广东地区肾综合征出血热流行特征与气象因素的ARIMA模型分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.08.024

余靓^1,2,
梁丽君¹,
黄平^1,2, ,,
郝元涛²

1. 广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省应急病原学检测重点实验室, 广东广州 511430;
2. 中山大学公共卫生学院, 广东广州 510080

基金项目:

全军医学科技“十二五”科研重大项目（AWSllL009）

详细信息

作者简介:
余靓(1990-),女,安徽黄山人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:传染病流行病学。

中图分类号: R512.8;R181.2
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-01-06
- 修回日期: 2016-04-29

An ARIMA model of epidemiological features of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and its meteorological factors in Guangdong

1. Guangdong Key Laboratory for Emergency Pathogen Detection, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China;
2. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China

摘要

摘要: 目的了解广东肾综合征出血热（hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome，HFRS）疫情流行特征与气象因素之间的关系。方法采集广东2004-2014年肾综合征出血热疫情病例资料和相关气象资料, 采用SPSS 19.0分析其流行特征和自回归综合移动平均模型（autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA）, 评价气候因素对HFRS发病的影响。结果广东2004-2014年HFRS病例数逐年上升, 确诊病例发病率在（0.069～0.328）/10万之间。广州、佛山、深圳、东莞、珠海市病例数占82.6%, 月发病高峰集中在3～6月和12月～次年1月。男女比例为2.95：1（χ²=427.22,P<0.001）, 15～55岁组占85.0%；工人、家政服务和农民（18.7%、17.3%和13.1%）为主要职业人群占49.1%。相关性分析发现, 平均气温（-0.486）和最低气温（-0.493）与滞后2月的HFRS病例数存在负相关性；ARIMA模型（R²=0.747）中, 平均相对湿度（β=0.880, P=0.044）和日照时数（β=-0.024, P=0.033）与滞后4月的和滞后3个月的HFRS病例数比较差异有统计学意义（均有P<0.05）。结论近年广东HFRS发病率逐年上升；多雨/阴云季节影响到啮齿动物生态, 继而导致下季节人群HFRS病例数增加；应加强人群和啮齿动物生态监测。
- 肾综合征出血热 /
- 气象因素 /
- 流行病学方法
Abstract: Objective To learn the relationship between epidemiological feature of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Guangdong and its meteorological factors. Methods The data of HFRS epidemic and meteorological data in Guangdong were collected and the descriptive epidemiology was conducted, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model using SPSS 19.0 were analyzed between the epidemiological feature of HFRS and meteorological factors.Results The incidence of HFRS in Guangdong increased year by year, with incidence rate (0.069-0.328)/100 000.Most cases occurred in Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai (totally accounted for 82.6%).The HFRS cases peaked monthly between March to June and lesser between December to January of next year.The ratio of male to female totally was 2.95:1(χ²=427.22,P<0.001) and the 15-55 years-old groups accounted for 85.0%.The workers, household workers and farmers(18.7%, 17.3% and 13.1%, respectively) accounted for 49.1%.There was a negative correlation between the monthly-cases and the average temperature with lags of 2-months (-0.486) and the minimum temperature with lags of 2-months (-0.493) by cross-correlation.In ARIMA (R²=0.747) model, HFRS cases monthly were statistically associated with the average relative humidity with lags of 4-months(β=0.880, P=0.044) and the sunshine duration with lags of 3-months(β=-0.024, P=0.033). Conclusions The HFRS incidence in Guangdong increased gradually past 11 years.More raining/cloud might result in increasing the HFRS cases next season as rodent habit changing.HFRS surveillance and rodent ecological monitoring should be strengthened.
- Hemorrhagic fever with renalsyndrome (HFRS) /
- Meteorological factors /
- Epidemiologic methods

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