Epidemiologic characteristics and temporal-spatial analysis of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and neighboring provinces, 2010-2014
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摘要: 目的 掌握2010-2014年内蒙古自治区及相邻8省人布鲁氏菌病流行特征和热点地区,为探索区域布鲁氏菌病防控策略、调整资源提供依据。方法 依据全国法定传染病报告系统(national notifiable infectious disease reporting system,NNIDS)所获监测数据,对2010-2014年内蒙古及相邻省份布鲁氏菌病的流行病学特征进行分析,通过ArcGIS 10.3软件绘制疾病地图,通过时空扫描统计量分析时空聚集性特征。结果 5年间此区域有布鲁氏菌病病例报告的区、县比例由66.56%(611/918)上升至90.63%(832/918)。2010年此区域报告发病率为10.28/10万,2014年为12.62/10万,年均增长率为5.27%。发病呈季节性,流行高峰期为3~7月。91.90%的报告病例处于25~64岁年龄段。报告病例的性别比为2.91:1,农、牧民共占89.60%。5年间共探测到43个时空聚集群,集中发生在1~8月,集中在高发区、县,位置相对稳定,由内蒙古中部逐渐向外扩散。结论 2010-2014年间内蒙古及相邻8省布鲁氏菌病疫情整体呈加重态势,存在时空聚集群,热点地区相对稳定并由内蒙古中部向外扩散,应考虑建立布鲁氏菌病暴发事件预警机制,并在热点地区增加防控资源。Abstract: Objective To investigate the epidemiologic characteristics and hot-spot areas of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) and neighboring provinces from 2010 to 2014, and to provide evidence for exploring the policy for human brucellosis prevention and control as well as resource allocation at regional level. Methods The epidemiologic characteristics of human brucellosis were analyzed based on the data originated from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System(NNIDS). The spatial distribution was described by disease mapping using ArcGIS 10.3. Space-time scan statistic was used to explore the temporal-spatial clusters. Results From 2010 to 2014, the percentage of affected counties in the nine neighboring provinces rose from 66.56%(611/918)to 90.63%(832/918). There was an apparent increase in the incidence rate from 10.28/100 000 in 2010 to 12.62/100 000 in 2014, with an average annual increase of 5.27%. A seasonal incidence presents with the epidemic period from March to July. The major infected population was aged between 25 to 64 with a percentage of 91.90%. The gender ratio was 2.91:1. Farmers and herdsmen occupied 89.60% of all the cases. During the past five years, a total of 43 space-time clusters were detected, the majority of which took place from January to August and located in counties with high incidence. These clusters laid relatively steadily and expanded from the central of IMAR to more areas. Conclusions During this half decade the human brucellosis was aggravated in this region. The temporal-spatial clusters existed and laid steadily with a trend of expanding from the central of IMAR to more areas. It is necessary to consider establishment of routine surveillance and detection system for early warning of human brucellosis outbreaks. More resource should be allocated to hot-spot areas for enhancing control efforts.
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Key words:
- Communicable diseases /
- Space-time clustering /
- Epidemiologic studies
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