摘要:
目的 运用地理信息系统（geographic information system，GIS）探索长沙市2006-2013年手足口病的流行病学特征，为实施公共卫生资源的优化配置提供科学依据。方法 收集长沙市2006-2013年手足口病相关数据，采用SPSS 18.0和ArcGIS 10.2进行流行病学特征分析。结果 2006-2013年长沙市手足口病的平均发病率为181.55/10万，主要为5岁以下儿童（95.2%），尤以散居儿童居多（75.1%）；2006-2013年发病率总体呈现先升后降的趋势，发病月份主要集中在4~7月（69.8%）；从GIS专题地图来看，星沙街道、雨花亭街道、洞井街道、左家塘街道、黎托乡等属于手足口病高发地区；从自相关分析来看，2008-2013年长沙市手足口病发病存在空间聚集性（均有P<0.05），热点区域集中在中部地区；从趋势面分析来看，手足口病发病在空间上呈中间高，四周低的趋势。结论 2006-2013年长沙市手足口病的患者主要为5岁以下散居儿童，发病月份集中在4~7月，发病地点主要是长沙市中部地区，应以此为指导，确定长沙市手足口病的重点防疫人群、时间和区域，实施公共卫生资源的优化配置。
Abstract:
Objective To explore the epidemiologic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Changsha from 2006 to 2013 with geographic information system (GIS) and provide scientific evidence for optimizing the public health resources distribution. Methods The information about hand-foot-mouth disease in Changsha from 2006 to 2013 was collected, SPSS 18.0 and ArcGIS 10.2 were used to analyze its epidemiologic characteristics. Results The hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha was 181.55/100 000 from 2006 to 2013, 95.2% were under 5 and 75.1% were scattered children. The overall incidence of disease raised first and then falled in 2006-2013, mostly were concentrated from April to July (69.8%). The GIS map showed that Xingsha, Yuhua pavilion, Dongjing, Zuojiatong street, Lituo village of Changsha were the high-risk areas of hand-foot-mouth disease. The autocorrelation analysis showed that the hand-foot-mouth disease cases existed spatial autocorrelation in 2008-2013 (all P<0.05), the hot region were mainly in the central of Changsha. The trend surface analysis also showed that hand-foot-mouth disease incidence was the highest in the central region of Changsha. Conclusions Most hand-foot-mouth disease patients in Changsha were children under age 5, the highest prevalence month were from April to July, and the highest prevalence region was in the central of Changsha. The key prevention people, time, areas of hand-foot-mouth disease should be confirmed according to the findings, in order to carry out the optimal allocation of public health resources.
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