Epidemic analysis of serious traffic accidents and casualties in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015
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摘要: 目的 分析上海市2013-2015年重特大交通事故及其伤亡信息的流行特征,为开展道路交通伤害预防提供依据。方法 系统抽取上海市交警2013-2015年重特大道路交通事故信息,分析其主要事故原因、伤亡人员主要交通方式和临床特征。利用ArcMap 10.1软件分析交通事故面数据的全局和局部空间自相关,探索事故的空间聚集特征。结果 上海市2013-2015年重特大交通事故抽样数据共224起,伤亡人员258人,直接财产损失共计196.14万元。人员伤亡以上午时段(6:00~12:00)为主,占43.41%;事故认定原因以机动车违法为主,占56.98%;受伤人群以电动自行车骑乘人员为主,占33.33%;人群伤亡临床特征以头部损伤为主,总计占65.89%。交通事故空间分析显示,事故高发区域和人群伤亡区域主要聚集于本市西部地区与外省市交汇处国道附近,在本市东部地区人口相对较少的区域也呈现事故聚集。结论 道路交通事故的发生涉及到人、车、环境和道路;探测道路交通安全的重点区域和人群,开展有针对性的干预措施,有助于降低道路交通伤害的发生。Abstract: Objective To identify the epidemic characteristics of serious road traffic accidents and road traffic injuries in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015 and provide the evidence for road traffic injury intervention. Methods A representative sample of serious road traffic accidents was randomly obtained through a systematic sampling of data from the Shanghai municipal traffic police department to analyze the main cause of serious road traffic injury and clinic feature of injuries. ArcMap 10.1 was used to describe the global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering in a community scale. Results According to data road traffic in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015, there were a total 224 accidents, 258 casualties (injury and death), and 1.96 million dollars in direct property loss. Most injuries (43.41%) occurred between 6:00 to 12:00. The leading reason was motor vehicle illegal behavior, which accounted for 56.98% of all accidents. In addition, the largest group of victims(33.33%) were E-bike riders and passengers, with the most prevalent clinical characteristic in each age group being brain trauma, accounting for 65.89%. The Getis-OrdGi index of local spatial autocorrelation indicated that the clusters of serious accidents and casualties were detected in the relatively small populated districtsin the east along with the western districts of Shanghai where roads are overlapped with the main channels that connect other cities to Shanghai. Conclusions The influences of road traffic injury include people, vehicle, environment and road. To explorer hotspot, high risk population and develop appropriate intervention program would promote to decrease the serious traffic accidents and casualties.
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Key words:
- Accident,traffic /
- Epidemiological methods /
- Large-scale casualties
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