我国2002-2016年间急性心肌梗死死亡趋势分析

俞奇; 王斌; 王焱; 戴翠莲

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.01.002

我国2002-2016年间急性心肌梗死死亡趋势分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.01.002

俞奇¹,
王斌²,
王焱^2, ,,
戴翠莲²

1.
361102 厦门, 厦门大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学系
2.
361004 厦门, 厦门大学附属心血管病医院心血管内科

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 71303171

详细信息

通讯作者:
王焱, E-mail: wy@medmail.com.cn

中图分类号: R542.22
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-07-23
- 修回日期: 2018-10-02
- 刊出日期: 2019-01-10

Mortality of acute myocardial infarction in China from 2002 to 2016

YU Qi¹,
WANG Bin²,
WANG Yan^{2
, ,},
DAI Cui-lian²

1.
Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
2.
Department of Cardiology, the Affiliated Cardiovascular Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen 361004, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71303171

More Information

Corresponding author: WANG Yan, E-mail: wy@medmail.com.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的分析中国居民2002-2016年急性心肌梗死（acute myocardial infarction，AMI）死亡率水平及变化趋势。方法汇总分析中国居民2002-2016年AMI死亡率数据，应用Joinpoint模型分析各人群和各年龄组AMI死亡率变化的时间趋势。结果近15年间，我国AMI标化死亡率呈上升态势。2002-2007年AMI标化率城市大于农村，2007年后农村大于城市。城市男性、城市女性、农村男性和农村女性的AMI标化率在2002-2016年间均呈增长趋势，平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC）分别为5.6%、6.1%、9.4%和9.9%。青中年男性和高龄女性AMI死亡率增长较快。结论 2002-2016年间，我国居民AMI死亡率呈上升趋势，其中农村居民上升迅速。城乡地区青中年男性和高龄女性AMI死亡均呈增长趋势。
- 急性心肌梗死 /
- 死亡率 /
- 趋势 /
- 危险因素
Abstract: Objective To analyze epidemical features and time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) deaths in China from 2002 to 2016. Methods AMI mortality data for Chinese residents from 2002 to 2016 were collected and the Joinpoint model was used to analyze the time trends in AMI mortality of various populations and different age groups. Results In the past 15 years, the age standardized mortality rate of AMI in China increased rapidly. In 2002-2007, AMI mortality of urban population were higher than that in the rural, and rural rates exceeding urban rates after 2007.The age standardized rates of AMI in urban males, urban females, rural males, and rural females increased from 2002 to 2016. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was 5.6%, 6.1%, 9.4%, and 9.9%, respectively. The age-specific mortality rates increased rapidly among young middle-aged male and elder female. Conclusions The mortality rate of AMI increased from 2002 to 2016, among which the AMI mortality rate in rural residents was increasing rapidly. The death of AMI in urban and rural areas among young middle-aged male and elder female showed a significant growth trend.
- Acute myocardial infarction /
- Mortality /
- Trend /
- Risk factors

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图 1 中国居民2002-2016年AMI年龄标化死亡率(标化率)概况

Figure 1. Age-standardized rates of AMI mortality for Chinese from 2002 to 2016

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图 2 不同人群2002-2016年AMI年龄标化死亡率(标化率)及(35~64岁) 截缩死亡率

Figure 2. Age-standardized rates and truncated rates (35-64) of AMI mortality for different population from 2002 to 2016

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表 1 不同人群与各年龄段2002-2016年AMI标化率变化趋势分析(%)

Table 1. Annual changes in AMI mortality rates for different population and different age groups from 2002 to 2016(%)

年龄(岁)	城市男性			城市女性			农村男性			农村女性
年龄(岁)	年份	APC	AAPC	年份	APC	AAPC	年份	APC	AAPC	年份	APC	AAPC
标化率	2002-2007	2.1	5.6^b	2002-2007	0.5	6.1^b	2002-2005	-3.7	9.4^b	2002-2005	0.5	9.9^b
	2007-2016	7.7^a		2007-2016	9.4^a		2005-2008	44.2^a		2005-2009	28.1
							2008-2016	3.9^a		2009-2016	4.6
截缩率	2002-2007	2.7	5.1^b	2002-2007	-2.0	2.9	2002-2005	-7.3	7.6	2002-2005	-3.8	6.2
	2007-2016	6.4^a		2007-2016	5.8^a		2005-2008	31.3		2005-2008	26.5
							2008-2016	5.6		2008-2016	3.2
20~	2002-2004	82.2^a	8.7^b	2002-2006	14.9	3.2	2002-2008	29.9^a	11.9	2002-2005	-53.5^a	2.4
	2004-2011	7.1		2006-2016	-1.2		2008-2016	0		2005-2008	173.8
	2011-2016	-9.8					2008-2016	-4.7
25~	2002-2006	0.0	5.6^b	2002-2004	-36.2	-0.9	2002-2005	-16.4	9.8	2002-2005	-10.6	8.6
	2006-2016	7.9^a		2004-2016	6.7		2005-2016	18.3^a		2005-2016	14.5^a
30~	2002-2004	22.4	9.5^b	2002-2007	-14.1	-0.2	2002-2012	5.0	12.3^b	2000-2011	2.4	7.4
	2004-2016	7.5^a		2007-2010	34.2		2012-2016	32.8		2011-2016	17.0
				2010-2016	-2.4
35~	2002-2004	39.5	8.4^b	2002-2007	-5.6	-0.8	2002-2012	6.1	10.2	2002-2007	7.1	2.9
	2004-2016	3.9^a		2007-2016	2.0		2012-2016	21.1		2007-2011	-9.0
							2011-2014	26.5
										2014-2016	-12.4
40~	2002-2014	5.6^a	3.5	2002-2004	41.6	4.5	2002-2008	20.3	11.0^b	2002-2004	-31.2	4.6
	2014-2016	-7.9		2004-2007	-11.9		2008-2016	4.4		2004-2007	64.0
				2007-2010	13.3					2007-2016	-1.2
				2010-2016	-4.0
45~	2002-2007	-8.6^a	-0.2	2002-2004	32.1	2.3	2002-2005	-17.6	5.5	2002-2006	-1.1	5.3
	2007-2011	16.5^a		2004-2007	-23.6		2005-2008	23.1^a		2006-2009	23.0
	2011-2016	-3.6^a		2007-2010	18.7		2008-2016	4.9		2009-2016	2.1
				2010-2016	-2.2
50~	2002-2004	35.3	9.5^b	2002-2004	28.0	6.2	2002-2005	-8.7	10.1	2002-2004	-13.5	5.4
	2004-2007	-6.8		2004-2007	-15.0		2005-2008	42.5		2004-2016	8.9^a
	2007-2016	10.4^a		2007-2016	9.8^a		2008-2011	-10.4
							2011-2016	19.5
55~	2002-2011	6.5^a	4.4^b	2002-2004	20.7	4.1	2002-2005	0.0	7.4	2002-2009	13.3^a	6.8^b
	2011-2016	0.8		2004-2016	1.6		2005-2008	30.0		2009-2016	0.6
							2008-2016	2.7
60~	2002-2007	0.9	5.6^b	2002-2007	-4.7	3.5	2002-2005	-14.6	7.2	2002-2005	-8.7	7.9
	2007-2016	8.3^a		2007-2016	8.3^a		2005-2008	39.7		2005-2008	39.7
							2008-2016	5.6		2008-2016	4.2
65~	2002-2007	-2.2	4.2^b	2002-2007	-3.3	3.0	2002-2005	-7.6	9.2	2002-2009	13.9^a	11.6^b
	2007-2016	7.9^a		2007-2016	6.7^a		2005-2008	37.2		2009-2016	9.3^a
							2008-2016	6.8
70~	2002-2007	0.0	3.2^b	2002-2007	0.8	3.2	2002-2005	-5.6	8.1	2002-2009	14.1^a	11.4^b
	2007-2016	5.1^a		2007-2016	4.6^a		2005-2008	35.0		2009-2016	8.7^a
							2008-2016	4.7
75~	2002-2007	4.8^a	3.7	2002-2014	5.6^a	4.4	2002-2005	-4.0	8.9	2002-2005	1.5	10.0^b
	2007-2016	-2.4		2014-2016	-2.1		2005-2008	39.2		2005-2009	25.6
							2008-2016	4.1		2009-2016	5.6
80~	2002-2007	-1.5	4.3	2002-2007	0.8	6.4^b	2002-2005	-6.4	7.7	2002-2005	-1.3	9.3
	2007-2010	15.8		2007-2016	9.7^a		2005-2008	35.7		2005-2009	27.9
	2010-2016	3.9^a					2008-2016	0.2		2009-2016	4.4
≥85	2002-2007	4.0	8.7^b	2002-2007	-2.1	8.1^b	2002-2005	6.5	12.2^b	2002-2006	6.9	12.3^b
	2007-2016	11.3^a		2007-2010	26.3		2005-2009	44.2^a		2006-2009	44.7
				2010-2016	8.5^a		2009-2016	-0.7		2009-2016	3.4
注：^a代表计算得到的APC值有统计学意义，P<0.05；^b代表计算得到的AAPC值具有统计学意义，P<0.05。

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表 2 Joinpoint模型拟合效果评价

Table 2. Model fit evaluation in Joinpoint regression model

指标	平均绝对误差	平均相对误差	误差平方和
城市男性AMI标化率	3.27	0.08	250.61
城市女性AMI标化率	2.84	0.10	174.33
农村男性AMI标化率	4.16	0.08	430.13
农村女性AMI标化率	3.12	0.09	366.71
城市男性AMI截缩率	1.77	0.08	65.97
城市女性AMI截缩率	0.99	0.13	19.20
农村男性AMI截缩率	2.41	0.11	174.58
农村女性AMI截缩率	0.91	0.09	31.96

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