佳木斯市2004-2017年流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析及趋势预测

陈欣; 吴晓敏; 包名家; 李明春; 王艳旭; 王雷; 薛晓峰; 王鹏; 王凯燕; 冯丽影

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.02.013

佳木斯市2004-2017年流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析及趋势预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.02.013

154000 佳木斯, 佳木斯市疾病预防控制中心免疫规划科

详细信息

通讯作者:
包名家, E-mail: cmubmj@163.com

中图分类号: R512.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-08-19
- 修回日期: 2018-11-08
- 刊出日期: 2019-02-10

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of mumps in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017

Department of Immunization Programmes, Jiamusi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiamusi, HeiLong-jiang 154000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: BAO Ming-jia, E-mail: cmubmj@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析佳木斯市流行性腮腺炎的流行特点，并对其发病趋势进行预测，为黑龙江省高寒地区采取有针对性的防控方法提供一定依据。方法通过传染病报告信息管理系统，收集佳木斯市2004-2017年报告的腮腺炎病例。选用描述流行病学方法，对其流行病学特点进行系统分析，并用自回归移动平均模型（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）对2018年腮腺炎的发病趋势进行预测。结果 2004-2017年佳木斯市腮腺炎共报告1 586例，年均发病率达到4.52/10万，近三年腮腺炎发病率出现上升趋势；男女发病率比为1.67∶1；病例主要集中在3~19岁，占全部病例的86.32%，5~9岁，10~14岁儿童发病率较高；发病有明显的季节性，每年的4-7月和11-次年1月为发病高峰；城区年发病率高于外郊县市区；ARIMA（4，1，2）（2，0，0）₁₂模型为相对最佳模型，预测的2018年1~6月腮腺炎发病率和实际值相符，预测2018年7~12月发病率为0.30/10万、0.35/10万、0.38/10万、0.39/10万、0.35/10万、0.33/10万。结论 ARIMA模型可以较为准确地预测佳木斯市腮腺炎发病趋势，为有效降低儿童发病率，建议在儿童学龄前阶段（3~6岁）或小学阶段开展第二剂次的腮腺炎疫苗接种，同时应继续做好托幼机构等集体单位的疫情监测防控工作。
- 流行性腮腺炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 趋势预测
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiamusi city, and predict the incidence trend, so as to provide evidence for taking targeted prevention and control measures in the cold areas in Heilongjiang Province. Methods The mumps cases were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017.Descriptive epidemiologic method was used for analyzing the epidemic of mumps in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to forecast the incidence of mumps in 2018. Results A total of 1 586 cases of mumps were reported in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, the average annual incidence rate was 4.52/100 000. The incidence of mumps increased year by year from 2015 to 2017.The ratio of male to female was 1.67:1, those aged from 3 to 19 years accounted for 86.32% of the total cases, the higher incidence rates were found at the age of 5-9 and 10-14 years.The incidence of mumps presented obviously seasonal characteristics.Most cases concentrated from April to July and from November to January. The incidence of urban disease was higher than that of other counties; The established finally mode was ARIMA(4, 1, 2)(2, 0, 0)₁₂ and the predicted incidence from January 2018 to June 2018 was consistent with the actual one.From July 2018 to December 2018, predictive mumps incidence were: 0.30/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.38/100 000, 0.39/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.33/100 000. Conclusions ARIMA model could predict the trend of mumps in Jiamusi city.To reduce the incidence of children, it is recommended to develop a second dose of mumps vaccine at the preschool age (3-6 years) or primary school; At the same time, surveillance and control should be continually strengthened in kindergartens and schools.
- Mumps /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- trend prediction

HTML全文

图 1 2004-2017年佳木斯市流行性腮腺炎发病情况

Figure 1. Incidence of mumps in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2004-2017年佳木斯市流行性腮腺炎的发病时间分布

Figure 2. Time distribution of mumps epidemic in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2004-2017年佳木斯市流行性腮腺炎发病年龄分布情况

Figure 3. Age distribution of mumps in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2018年佳木斯市流行性腮腺炎发病率预测

Figure 4. Incidence prediction of mumps epidemic in Jiamusi city in 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 ARIMA模型组合结果

Table 1. Results of ARIMA model combination

组合结果	AIC
ARIMA(4，1，0)(0，1，0)₁₂	122.66
ARIMA(4，1，0)(0，1，1)₁₂	39.47
ARIMA(4，1，0)(0，1，2)₁₂	38.19
ARIMA(4，1，0)(1，1，0)₁₂	73.67
ARIMA(4，1，0)(1，1，1)₁₂	38.86
ARIMA(4，1，0)(1，1，2)₁₂	无法拟合
ARIMA(4，1，0)(2，1，0)₁₂	40.15
ARIMA(4，1，0)(2，1，1)₁₂	37.65
ARIMA(4，1，0)(2，1，2)₁₂	39.47
ARIMA(4，1，2)(2，0，0)₁₂	20.93

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表 2 佳木斯市2018年1月~6月流行性腮腺炎月发病率和预测值比较

Table 2. Comparison of monthly incidence and predicted value of mumps in Jiamusi city from January 2018 to June 2018

时间	实际值(/10万)	预测值(/10万)	95% CI下限	95% CI上限	绝对误差	相对误差
2018年1月	0.25	0.31	0.00	0.93	0.06	24.00
2018年2月	0.29	0.36	0.04	1.02	0.07	24.14
2018年3月	0.38	0.42	0.22	1.20	0.04	10.53
2018年4月	0.53	0.60	0.16	1.14	0.07	13.21
2018年5月	0.49	0.54	0.06	1.10	0.05	10.20
2018年6月	0.41	0.47	0.01	0.79	0.06	14.63
均值					0.06	16.12

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