泰州市2009-2017年麻疹空间流行病学分析

王超; 张翔; 朱中奎; 解燕; 肖辉; 唐万琴

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.03.006

泰州市2009-2017年麻疹空间流行病学分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.03.006

225300 泰州, 江苏省泰州市疾病预防控制中心免疫规划科

详细信息

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-10-16
- 修回日期: 2018-12-22
- 刊出日期: 2019-03-10

Spatial epidemiological analysis of measles in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017

Immunization Planning Section, Taizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, TaiZhou 225300, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析泰州市2009-2017年麻疹发病空间流行病学特征，为麻疹防制提供理论依据。方法用ArcGIS 10.0软件对泰州市2009-2017年麻疹数据进行空间自相关性分析、趋势面分析，对泰州市麻疹疫情的动态趋势及变化特征进行综合分析。结果泰州市2009-2017年麻疹发病率处于0.83~65.43/100万之间。全局自相关分析发现，2012年、2013年、2015年、2016年泰州市麻疹发病率存在空间相关性，且为高值聚集性分布。局部自相关分析发现2009-2017年泰州市麻疹发病热点区域主要集中在泰州市中部乡镇。趋势面分析发现泰州市麻疹疫情2010年南部地区高于北部地区，2013年、2015年中部地区高于东西、南北地区。结论根据空间分析，2009-2017年泰州市麻疹发病空间分布存在自相关，中部乡镇存在发病热点区域。针对这些特点，应该采取针对性的预防措施。
- 麻疹 /
- 空间分析 /
- 发病率
Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatial epidemiological characteristics of measles in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017, so as to provide theoretical basis for measles prevention and control. Methods The spatial autocorrelation analysis and trend surface analysis of measles epidemics data from 2009 to 2017 in Taizhou were performed using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The dynamic characteristics of measles epidemics in Taizhou were analyzed. Results Among 2009-2017 years, the incidences of measles in Taizhou ranged from 0.83/1 million to 65.43/1 million. The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there were spatial correlations of the incidence of measles among 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016 in Taizhou with a high-value clustering distribution. Local autocorrelation analysis indicated that the hot spots of measles incidence in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017 were mainly concentrated in the central towns of Taizhou. Trend surface analysis suggested that the measles incidence in the south towns of Taizhou was higher than that in the north in 2010, and the incidence in the central region was higher than those in other regions in 2013 and 2015. Conclusions According to the spatial analysis, autocorrelation was observed for the spatial distribution of measles incidence in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017, and there are hot spots in the central township. Targeted preventive measures should be taken based on these characteristics.
- Measles /
- Spatial analysis /
- Incidence

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图 1 2009-2017年泰州市麻疹发病率分布

Figure 1. Measles incidences in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 泰州市2009-2017年各乡镇麻疹发病率分布图

Figure 2. Measles incidences in all townships in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017

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图 3 2009-2017年泰州市麻疹发病热点分布图

Figure 3. Distribution of hot spots of measles epidemics in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2010年、2013年、2015年泰州市麻疹发病率趋势分布图

Figure 4. Trend of measles incidence in Taizhou in 2010, 2013 and 2015

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表 1 泰州市2009-2017年发病率最高乡镇统计表

Table 1. List of township with highest measles incidence in each year in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017

年份	发病率最高乡镇	所在市区
2009	茅山镇	兴化市
2010	寺巷街道	高新区
2011	刁铺街道	高港区
2012	大泗镇	高港区
2013	京泰路街道	海陵区
2014	红旗农场	农业开发区
2015	凤凰街道	高新区
2016	九龙镇	海陵区
2017	京泰路街道	海陵区

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表 2 泰州市2009-2017年麻疹发病全局自相关分析表

Table 2. Global autocorrelation analysis for measles incidence in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017

年份	Moran′s Index	Z值	P值	聚集性
2009年	-0.010	0.003	0.997	-
2010年	0.019	0.506	0.613	-
2011年	-0.027	-0.034	0.738	-
2012年	0.179	3.448	0.001	聚集
2013年	0.496	7.892	<0.001	聚集
2014年	0.066	1.879	0.060	-
2015年	0.566	9.443	<0.001	聚集
2016年	0.149	2.632	0.008	聚集
2017年	-0.027	-0.335	0.738	-

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 泰州市2009-2017年麻疹发病全局自相关(high/low Cluster)分析表

Table 3. Global autocorrelation of measles incidence in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017 (high/low Cluster)

年份	Observed General G	Expected General G	Variance	Z值	P值
2009	0.010 3	0.010 5	0.000 0	-0.112 2	0.910 7
2010	0.016 4	0.010 5	0.000 1	0.512 4	0.608 3
2011	0.000 0	0.010 5	0.000 5	-0.460 4	0.645 2
2012	0.052 9	0.010 5	0.000 1	3.660 0	0.000 3
2013	0.022 9	0.010 5	0.000 0	7.522 0	0.000 0
2014	0.020 3	0.010 5	0.000 0	1.930 5	0.053 5
2015	0.027 0	0.010 5	0.000 0	9.462 1	0.000 0
2016	0.028 4	0.010 5	0.000 0	2.584 9	0.009 7
2017	0.000 0	0.010 5	0.000 4	-0.498 0	0.618 5

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