中国大陆三种流感监测数据的时效性比较

秦康; 张业武; 张鹏; 李言飞; 马家奇

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.04.004

中国大陆三种流感监测数据的时效性比较

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.04.004

102206 北京市, 中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 U1611264

国家科技重大专项 2017ZX10303401-005

详细信息

通讯作者:
马家奇, E-mail: majq@chinacdc.cn

中图分类号: R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-10-29
- 修回日期: 2019-01-27
- 刊出日期: 2019-04-10

Comparing the timeliness of three types of influenza surveillance data in mainland China

Public Health Surveillance and Information Service Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China U1611264

National science and technology major project of the ministry of science and technology of China 2017ZX10303401-005

More Information

Corresponding author: Ma Jia-qi, E-mail: majq@chinacdc.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的评估中国大陆三种流感监测数据(法定传染病直报系统报告的流感病例数、流感样病例占门急诊病例总数百分比(influenza-like illness consultation rate，ILI%)和流感病毒检出率)的时效性，为今后流感监测和预警工作提供科学依据。方法分别针对2017-2018年度中国大陆北方和南方的三种流感监测数据，采用高峰对比、时间交叉相关分析以及预警分析方法比较时效性。结果 2017-2018年度三种流感监测数据反映的流感流行趋势大体一致。但三种流感监测数据具有不同的时效性。ILI%在预警北方的第一个流行高峰的能力上欠佳，分别比流感报告病例数和流感病毒检出率滞后6周和9周，南方第一个流行高峰的最早预警指标是ILI%，分别比流感报告病例数和流感病毒检出率提前4周和7周；而三种监测数据在南、北方第二个流行高峰的预警时间上相差不大(0~2周)。结论中国大陆三种流感监测数据均能反映流感流行趋势，综合使用三种监测数据，能够更加及时、准确地预警流感流行。
- 流感 /
- 监测数据 /
- 时效性 /
- 比较
Abstract: Objective To evaluate the timeliness of the three sets of influenza surveillance data (influenza reported cases from Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS), influenza-like illness consultation rate (ILI%) and influenza virus positive rate from Chinese Influenza Surveillance Information System) in mainland China. Methods The three sets of influenza surveillance data of North and South China from 2017 to 2018 were compared using peak comparison, cross correlation and Early Aberration Reporting System C3 method. Results The influenza epidemic trends reflected by the three sets of influenza surveillance weekly data from 2017 to 2018 were generally consistent and significantly correlated. However, the three sets of data had different timeliness. From 2017 to 2018, ILI% in the North was not timely at alarming the first epidemic peak, which was 6 weeks and 9 weeks later than influenza cases from NIDRIS and positive rate of influenza virus respectively. While in the South, ILI% was the most sensitive indicator, which was 4 weeks and 7 weeks earlier than influenza cases from NIDRIS and positive rate of influenza virus respectively. However, the three sets of data had little difference in the timeliness of the second epidemic peak both in the North and South. Conclusions The three sets of influenza surveillance data in mainland China could all roughly reflected the epidemic trend of influenza. After comparing the timeliness, a combination of influenza reported cases from NIDRIS together with ILI% and influenza virus positive rate could improve timeliness and accuracy for early warning of influenza.
- Influenza /
- Surveillance data /
- Timeliness /
- Comparison

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图 1 2017-2018年度中国大陆三种流感监测数据的EARS-C3预警结果

Figure 1. EARS-C3 warning results of three types of influenza data in the North and South China from 2017 to 2018

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表 1 流感报告病例数与ILI%、流感病毒检出率的时间交叉相关性分析结果

Table 1. Results of time cross correlation analysis among influenza reported cases, ILI% and influenza virus positive rate

南、北方监测数据	与"流感报告病例数"的r_s
南、北方监测数据	-4周	-3周	-2周	-1周	本周	+1周	+2周	+3周	+4周
北方
ILI%	0.673	0.765^a	0.760	0.719	0.641	0.741	0.731	0.693	0.614
流感病毒检出率	0.808	0.847	0.885	0.892	0.905^a	0.878	0.791	0.730	0.677
南方
ILI%	0.605	0.710	0.776	0.826	0.827^a	0.825	0.745	0.636	0.501
流感病毒检出率	0.455	0.583	0.702	0.790	0.818	0.822^a	0.788	0.717	0.612
注："-1周"表示流感报告病例数时间分布前移1周，"+1周"表示时间分布向后1周，余类推。北方，ILI%与流感病毒检出率的r_s为0.642；南方，ILI%与流感病毒检出率的r_s为0.569。P值均＜0.001。^a表示时间交叉相关系数最大。

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表 2 2017-2018年度中国大陆南、北方三种流感监测数据EARS-C3预警时间

Table 2. EARS-C3 warning time of three types of influenza data in the North and South China from 2017 to 2018

南、北方监测数据	EARS-C3(周)
北方
流感报告病例数	35~40，49~4
ILI%	41~42，48~3
流感病毒检出率	32~38，48~3
南方
流感报告病例数	26~31，49~6
ILI%	22~30，51~5
流感病毒检出率	29~33，49~4
注：逗号前后分别表示第一个流行高峰、第二个流行高峰的预警时间。

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表 3 2017-2018年度中国大陆南、北方三种流感监测数据的时效性比较

Table 3. Comparing the timeliness of three types of influenza data in the North and South China from 2017 to 2018

南、北方监测数据	与流感报告病例数的时效性比较
南、北方监测数据	高峰对比	时间交叉相关分析	EARS-C3
北方
ILI%	早2周	早3周	迟6周，早1周
流感病毒检出率	早2周	相同	早3周，早1周
南方
ILI%	相同，相同	相同	早4周，迟2周
流感病毒检出率	迟6周，相同	迟1周	迟3周，相同
注：逗号前后分别表示第一个流行高峰、第二个流行高峰的其它监测数据与流感报告病例数的时效性差值。

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