基于DLNM模型探讨江阴市手足口病发病与气象因素之间的关联

李骏; 顾敏华; 钱程; 姚建香; 颜雅娟; 周菊静; 祖荣强

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.04.009

基于DLNM模型探讨江阴市手足口病发病与气象因素之间的关联

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.04.009

李骏^{1, 2},
顾敏华¹,
钱程^1, ,,
姚建香¹,
颜雅娟¹,
周菊静¹,
祖荣强²

1.
214434 无锡, 江阴市疾病预防控制中心传染病控制与消毒杀虫所
2.
210009 南京, 江苏省现场流行病学培训项目

基金项目:

无锡市卫计委科研项目 Q201736

详细信息

通讯作者:
钱程, E-mail: 339233062@qq.com

中图分类号: R512.57
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-08-02
- 修回日期: 2018-11-07
- 刊出日期: 2019-04-10

Exploration of the association between meteorological factors and incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease based on the distributed lag non-linear model in Jiangyin

1.
Department of Infectious Disease Control and Disinfection and Post Control, Jiangyin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wu Xi 214434, China
2.
Field Epidemiology Training Program of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210009, China

Funds:

Scientific Research Project of Wuxi Health and Family Planning Commission Q201736

More Information

Corresponding author: QIAN Cheng, E-mail: 339233062@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨气象因素对江阴市手足口病(hand foot and mouth disease，HFMD)发病情况的影响。方法采用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model，DLNM)分析2012-2017年江阴市气象因素对HFMD发病的累计效应及滞后效应。结果 2012-2017年江阴市共报告HFMD 21 791例，HFMD日发病数与日均气温(r_s=0.402，P < 0.001)、日均气压(r_s=-0.453，P < 0.001)、日均相对湿度(r_s=0.075，P < 0.001)均存在相关性。DLNM拟合结果显示，日均温度11℃时对HFMD发病的累计效应最高(RR=1.473，95% CI：1.099~1.974)，并在当天即对HFMD发病产生最大影响(RR=1.090，95% CI：1.045~1.136)；日均相对湿度85%时对HFMD发病的累计效应最高(RR=1.346，95% CI：1.154~1.571)，对HFMD发病影响在第6 d达到高峰(RR=1.023，95% CI：1.015~1.031)；日均气压1 010.0 hpa时对HFMD发病的累计效应最高(RR=1.221，95% CI：1.020~1.463)，但在该气压水平并未观察到滞后效应。结论气象因素对江阴市HFMD发病存在影响，气温和湿度存在明显的滞后效应。
- 手足口病 /
- 气象因素 /
- 模型 /
- 统计学
Abstract: Objective To explore the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jiangyin City. Methods The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the delayed and cumulative effects of meteorological factors on incidence of HFMD in Jiangyin from 2012 to 2017. Results A total of 21 791 HFMD cases were reported in Jiangyin City during 2012-2017. We observed significant correlations between the daily incidence of HFMD and daily mean temperature (r_s=0.402, P < 0.001), daily mean pressure (r_s=-0.453, P < 0.001), and daily mean relative humidity (r_s=0.075, P < 0.001), respectively. It was indicated that the maximum cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the incidence of HFMD was 11℃ (RR=1.473, 95% CI: 1.99-1.974), and the impact on the onset of HFMD was acute and hightest at the first day (RR=1.090, 95% CI: 1.045-1.136). The cumulative effect on incidence of HFMD was highest at 85% daily relative humidity (RR=1.346, 95% CI: 1.154-1.571), and the impact on HFMD peaked on the 6th day (RR=1.023, 95% CI: 1.015-1.031); The maximum cumulative effect of daily mean pressure with the incidence of HFMD was 1010.0 hpa (RR=1.221, 95% CI: 1.020-1.463), but no lag effect was observed at this level. Conclusions Meteorological factors have significant impact on the incidence of HFMD in Jiangyin City, and the effects of temperature and humidity are lagged.
- Hand, foot and mouth disease /
- Meteorological factors /
- Models /
- statistical

HTML全文

图 1 2012-2017年江阴市气象因素与HFMD发病时间序列图

Figure 1. Time series of meteorological factors and HFMD incidence in Jiangyin City from 2012 to 2017

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图 2 气象因素对HFMD的发病风险影响

Figure 2. Influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD

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图 3 气象因素对HFMD发病的累计效应三维图

Figure 3. Three-dimensional graph for cumulative effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD

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图 4 气象因素对HFMD发病的滞后效应

Figure 4. Lag effect of meteorological factors on the onset of HFMD

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表 1 2012-2017年江阴市HFMD日发病数、气象指标分布

Table 1. Distribution of daily incidence of HFMD and meteorological indicators in Jiangyin City from 2012 to 2017

变量	x±s	最小值	最大值	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅
HFMD日发病数(例)	10.0±10.0	0.0	55.0	3.0	6.0	14.0
日平均温度(℃)	17.0±9.2	-6.5	36.0	8.7	17.9	24.3
日平均大气压力(hPa)	1 016.0±9.2	994.3	1 040.9	1 008.0	1 016.1	1 023.0
日平均相对湿度(%)	71.0±14.0	26.0	100.0	62.0	72.0	82.0

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