天津市大气污染对儿童呼吸系统疾病影响的病例交叉研究

张经纬; 冯利红; 侯常春; 肖福昌; 赵岩; 于浩; 王玉雯; 顾清

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.011

天津市大气污染对儿童呼吸系统疾病影响的病例交叉研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.011

1.
300011 天津, 天津市疾病预防控制中心
2.
300499 天津, 天津市北辰区疾病预防控制中心

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目 81573123

详细信息

通讯作者:
顾清, E-mail: guqing315@126.com

中图分类号: R181.23
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- 文章访问数: 401
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-09-20
- 修回日期: 2019-01-02
- 刊出日期: 2019-05-10

The impact of air pollution on children's respiratory diseases in Tianjin: a case-over study

1.
Department of Environment and health, Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China
2.
Tianjin Beichen District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300499, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81573123

More Information

Corresponding author: GU Qing, E-mail: guqing315@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探求大气污染对天津市儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响，为疾病的预防与控制提供依据。方法利用单污染物和多污染物条件Logistic回归模型，来估计空气污染物浓度和儿童呼吸系统疾病发病之间的关系。结果单污染物条件Logistic回归模型显示，大气中NO₂、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO的超额危险度(excess risk rate，ER)及其95%CI分别为2.823%(2.581~3.065)、0.476%(0.382~0.569)、0.437%(0.368~0.506)、22.263%(15.449~29.478)。多污染物条件Logistic回归分析显示：在寒冷季节，NO₂暴露对儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响效应最大，ER及其95%CI为7.395%(6.595~8.202)。结论 NO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO日平均浓度的升高可以增高儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生风险。
- 大气污染 /
- 儿童 /
- 呼吸系统疾病 /
- 病例交叉研究
Abstract: Objective To explore the effect of air pollution on children's respiratory diseases in Tianjin, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of diseases. Methods Conditional Logistic regression model of single pollutant and multiple pollutants was used to estimate the relationships between air pollutants concentration and children's respiratory system diseases. Results Conditional Logistic regression model of single pollutant conditions showed that the excess risk (ER) effects and 95% CI of NO₂, PM2.5, PM₁₀ and CO appeared were 2.823%(2.581-3.065), 0.476%(0.382-0.569), 0.437%(0.368-0.506), 22.263%(15.449-29.478), respectively. Logistic regression analysis of multiple pollutants conditions showed that NO₂ exposure had the greatest effect on children's respiratory diseases in cold season, and the excess risk (ER) was 7.395%(6.595-8.202). Conclusion The elevated daily average concentration of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and CO can increase the risk of children's respiratory diseases.
- Air pollution /
- Children /
- Respiratory diseases /
- Case-over study

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图 1 SO₂、NO₂、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO对儿童呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的单污染物的条件Logistic回归分析

Figure 1. Logistic regression analysis of SO₂, NO₂, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO on the daily hospital admissions of children's respiratory diseases in single pollutant model

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 SO₂、NO₂、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO对儿童呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的单污染物的条件Logistic回归分析^a

Table 1. Logistic regression analysis of SO₂, NO₂, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO on the daily hospital admissions of children's respiratory diseases in single pollutant model^a

滞后日	SO₂(μg·m^-3)	NO₂(μg·m^-3)	PM_2.5(μg·m^-3)	PM₁₀(μg·m^-3)	CO(μg·m^-3)
Lag0	0.16%(-0.02~0.33)	1.09%(0.94~1.23)^b	0.17%(0.11~0.22)^b	0.15%(0.11~0.20)^b	11.60%(7.56~15.80)^b
Lag1	0.13%(-0.05~0.31)	0.97%(0.83~1.11)^b	0.14%(0.09~0.20)^b	0.19%(0.15~0.23)^b	6.24%(2.54~10.08)^b
Lag2	-0.28%(-0.46~-0.10)^b	0.98%(0.83~1.12)^b	0.13%(0.08~0.19)^b	0.16%(0.12~0.20)^b	5.66%(2.03~9.42)^b
Lag3	-0.66%(-0.84~-0.48)^b	0.77%(0.63~0.91)^b	0.08%(0.03~0.13)^b	0.09%(0.05~0.13)^b	3.37%(-0.19~7.06)
Lag4	-0.51%(-0.69~-0.33)^b	0.92%(0.78~1.06)^b	0.19%(0.14~0.24)^b	0.11%(0.07~0.15)^b	7.52%(3.82~11.36)^b
Lag5	-0.24%(-0.42~-0.06)^b	1.12%(0.97~1.26)^b	0.26%(0.21~0.31)^b	0.15%(0.12~0.19)^b	11.72%(7.90~15.68)^b
Lag01	0.25%(0.03~0.46)^b	1.41%(1.25~1.58)^b	0.21%(0.15~0.28)^b	0.24%(0.19~0.29)^b	11.99%(7.48~16.70)^b
Lag02	0.12%(-0.14~0.36)	1.80%(1.61~1.98)^b	0.27%(0.19~0.34)^b	0.31%(0.26~0.37)^b	13.86%(8.85~19.10)^b
Lag03	-0.30%(-0.58~-0.02)^b	2.08%(1.87~2.29)^b	0.29%(0.21~0.37)^b	0.34%(0.28~0.40)^b	14.55%(9.06~20.31)^b
Lag04	-0.67%(-0.99~-0.36)^b	2.41%(2.18~2.63)^b	0.36%(0.27~0.44)^b	0.37%(0.31~0.43)^b	17.24%(11.16~23.65)^b
Lag05	-0.83%(-1.17~-0.49)	2.82%(2.58~3.07)^b	0.48%(0.38~0.57)^b	0.44%(0.37~0.51)^b	22.26%(15.45~29.48)^b
注：^a表示表中数值为各污染物的ER值及95% CI，^b表示差异有统计学意义(P＜0.001)。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 SO₂、NO₂、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO对儿童呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的多污染物的条件Logistic回归分析^a

Table 2. Logistic regression analysis of SO₂, NO₂, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO on the daily hospital admissions of children's respiratory diseases in multi-pollutants modela

全观察期	温暖季节(5月~10月)	寒冷季节(11月~次年4月)
SO₂	-0.78%(-0.97~-0.58)^b	-0.73%(-0.93~-0.52)^b	-0.74%(-1.46~-0.01)^b
NO₂	5.12%(4.73~5.52)^b	5.31%(4.78~5.84)^b	7.40%(6.60~8.20)^b
PM₁₀	0.56%(0.42~0.69)^b	0.70%(0.53~0.88)^b	0.01%(-0.22~0.23)^b
PM2.5	-1.17%(-1.39~-0.96)^b	-1.59%(-1.85~-1.32)^b	-0.13%(-0.57~0.31)^b
CO	-29.19%(-34.84~-23.04)^b	-18.61%(-25.53~-11.04)^b	-86.38%(-89.50~-82.32)^b
注：^a表示表中数值为各污染物的ER值及95% CI，^b表示差异具有统计学意义(P＜0.001)。

下载: 导出CSV

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