洞庭湖地区血吸虫病潜在风险区识别及风险监测

许骏; 贺清云; 胡本骄

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.013

洞庭湖地区血吸虫病潜在风险区识别及风险监测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.05.013

1.
410006 长沙, 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院
2.
414000 岳阳, 湖南省血吸虫病防治所

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 41371487

详细信息

通讯作者:
贺清云, E-mail: xujun050126@126.com

中图分类号: R532.21;R181.8
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- 文章访问数: 319
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-02-27
- 修回日期: 2019-03-25
- 刊出日期: 2019-05-10

Identification and risk monitoring of potential risk areas of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area

1.
College of Resource and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410000, China
2.
Hunan Institute of Schistosomiasis Control, Yueyang 414000, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41371487

More Information

Corresponding author: HE Qing-yun, E-mail: xujun050126@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的识别和监测洞庭湖地区血吸虫病潜在风险区。方法借助遥感技术(remote sensing，RS)和地理信息系统(geographic information system，GIS)技术，利用光谱特征和环境因子特征，提取洞庭湖地区血吸虫病潜在风险区。基于流行病学数据和土地利用数据测算地区疫情指数和环境易感指数，与潜在疫情风险区在洞庭湖区格网系统中融合，形成2006-2016年洞庭湖区血吸虫病流行风险监测图。结果 2006-2016年洞庭湖地区血吸虫疫情高风险区集中在常德市辖区中、北部临湖地区(年平均疫情指数R=0.330 5，区域平均易感指数Y=2.458 2)，敏感地类为湖泊地区(敏感度系数β=1.236 6)，南县及沅江市北部大通湖周边地区(R=0.426 0，Y=0.836 8)，敏感地类为水田地区(β=0.202 1)和其他建设用地(β=0.308 0)。极高风险区集中在津市境内部分临湖地区(R=0.449 1，R=3.917 0)，敏感地类为有林地(β=1.234 5)。流域风险从高到低依次为澧水、沅水、资水、湘江。结论洞庭湖地区要将高风险、极高风险地区作为未来疫情控制的重点，并做好疏林地、高覆盖度草地、水库坑塘等疫情敏感地类的查灭螺和环境整治工作。
- 血吸虫病 /
- 潜在风险区 /
- 监测
Abstract: Objective To identify and monitor potential risk areas of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area. Methods With remote sensing (RS)and geographic information system(GIS) technology, potential risk areas of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area were extracted by using spectral characteristics and environmental factors. Based on epidemiological data and land use data, the regional epidemic index and environmental susceptibility index were fused with potential epidemic risk areas in the grid system of Dongting Lake area to form the epidemic risk surveillance map of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area from 2006 to 2016. Results From 2006 to 2016, the high risk areas of schistosomiasis epidemic in Dongting Lake area were concentrated in the central and Northern lakeside areas of Changde City (Annual average epidemic index R=0.330 5, Regional average susceptibility index Y=2.458 2), the sensitive land types were Lake area (Sensitivity coefficient β=1.236 6), the surrounding area of Datong Lake in Nanxian and Northern Yuanjiang City (R=0.426 0, Y=0.836 8), paddy field area (β=0.202 1) and other construction land (β=0.308 0). The extremely high risk areas were concentrated in some lake-facing areas in Jinshi (R=0.449 1, Y=3.917 0) and the sensitive land type is woodland(β=1.234 5). The risk of river basin from high to low was respectively the Lishui River, the Yuanjiang River, the Zijiang River and the Xiangjiang River. Conclusions The high-risk and extremely high-risk areas should be the focus of future epidemic control. The snail control and environmental renovation of epidemic-sensitive areas such as sparse woodland, grassland with high coverage, reservoir pits and ponds should be done well in Dongting Lake area.
- Schistosomiasis /
- Potential risk areas /
- Monitoring

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图 1 2006-2016年洞庭湖地区血吸虫病潜在风险区域图

Figure 1. Regional map of potential risk of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area from 2006 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 洞庭湖区血吸虫疫情风险等级划分规则

Figure 2. Criteria for classification of schistosomiasis epidemic risk level

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2006-2016年洞庭湖区血吸虫病流行风险监测图

Figure 3. Surveillance map of schistosomiasis epidemic risk in Dongting Lake area from 2006 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 洞庭湖地区血吸虫病潜在风险区疫情指数R

Table 1. Epidemic index of potential risk areas of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area

地区	2006年	2008年	2010年	2012年	2014年	2016年	平均值
汉寿县	0.084 6	0.083 1	0.087 0	0.084 6	0.080 6	0.079 1	0.083 2
安乡县	0.322 2	0.294 2	0.343 2	0.491 0	0.436 3	0.408 9	0.382 6
澧县	0.297 6	0.303 8	0.282 9	0.214 1	0.187 2	0.254 3	0.256 7
津市市	0.545 8	0.467 1	0.223 3	0.536 6	0.437 1	0.484 7	0.449 1
临澧县	0.025 0	0.069 9	0.060 6	0.074 5	0.074 1	0.041 9	0.057 7
常德市辖区	0.271 9	0.287 3	0.345 0	0.388 0	0.384 0	0.306 6	0.330 5
岳阳县	0.087 7	0.077 1	0.122 4	0.148 1	0.150 5	0.140 1	0.121 0
湘阴县	0.071 5	0.109 7	0.074 4	0.085 1	0.057 8	0.054 9	0.075 6
华容县	0.235 4	0.189 6	0.141 6	0.165 8	0.226 5	0.247 0	0.201 0
汨罗市	0.060 5	0.072 6	0.048 9	0.080 3	0.092 7	0.192 6	0.091 3
临湘市	0.043 9	0.056 0	0.047 3	0.046 1	0.039 4	0.046 8	0.046 6
岳阳市辖区	0.190 6	0.202 2	0.258 5	0.400 6	0.280 6	0.339 3	0.278 6
沅江市	0.231 2	0.377 6	0.261 1	0.223 5	0.339 4	0.275 3	0.284 7
南县	0.261 7	0.385 3	0.238 9	0.270 9	0.316 6	0.546 6	0.336 7
益阳市辖区	0.228 1	0.262 3	0.333 6	0.333 4	0.276 1	0.281 6	0.285 9

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表 2 部分流行疫区9个土地利用类型的疫情敏感度系数β

Table 2. Sensitivity coefficient of 9 land use types in epidemic areas

地类编号	津市市	南县	沅江市	华容县	澧县	常德市辖区	岳阳市辖区	益阳市辖区
11	-0.140 2^a	0.202 1^b	0.039 5^b	-0.106 2^b	0.022 6^a	0.010 7	0.087 4^b	-0.034 5^b
21	2.470 9	-0.178 9	0.023 9^b	0.043 8^b	0.041 0^a	-1.524 9^a	-0.106 0^b	-0.377 1^a
23	2.064 8^a	-0.289 2^b	-0.048 9^b	-0.130 8^b	-0.029 2	2.075 7^a	-0.259 2^b	0.126 9^a
31	0.002 7	-0.165 2^c	0.085 6	0.052 2^b	0.307 2^b	-0.039 0	0.113 5^b	0.115 8
42	0.009 4^c	-0.047 1^b	0.027 5^a	-0.003 1^b	0.082 2^a	1.236 6^a	-0.033 6^b	0.123 8^a
43	1.395 3^b	-0.047 3^b	0.124 5^a	0.035 3^b	-0.037 2^c	-0.139 1^c	-0.137 6	-0.461 7^a
52	-0.757 8^a	0.074 6^b	-0.088 5^b	-0.108 8^b	0.182 4^a	0.316 0	-0.124 2^b	0.427 8
53	-2.341 3^b	0.004 9^b	0.308 0^c	0.664 2^b	-0.022 1^b	0.546 7^a	0.161 4^b	0.288 2^a
64	0.036 3^c	0.047 2^b	-0.022 0^b	-0.147 7^b	-0.251 8^c	0.061 3	-0.030 6^b	-0.020 6^b
注：^a表示该系数值在95%置信水平下有统计学意义；^b表示该系数值在99%置信水平下有统计学意义；^c表示该系数值在90%置信水平下有统计学意义。

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