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苏州市大气PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析

陈鑫,  王临池,  郭倩岚,  胡浩,  陆艳,  朱小红,  李红美

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文章导航 > 中华疾病控制杂志  > 2019 >  23(6): 661-666
陈鑫, 王临池, 郭倩岚, 胡浩, 陆艳, 朱小红, 李红美. 苏州市大气PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(6): 661-666. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.06.009
引用本文: 陈鑫, 王临池, 郭倩岚, 胡浩, 陆艳, 朱小红, 李红美. 苏州市大气PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(6): 661-666. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.06.009
shu
CHEN Xin, WANG Lin-chi, GUO Qian-lan, HU Hao, LU Yan, ZHU Xiao-hong, LI Hong-mei. Association between PM2.5 pollution in ambient air and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Suzhou in 2016: a time series analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(6): 661-666. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.06.009
Citation: CHEN Xin, WANG Lin-chi, GUO Qian-lan, HU Hao, LU Yan, ZHU Xiao-hong, LI Hong-mei. Association between PM2.5 pollution in ambient air and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Suzhou in 2016: a time series analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(6): 661-666. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.06.009
shu

苏州市大气PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.06.009
  • 1.

    215123 苏州, 苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系

  • 2.

    215000 苏州, 苏州市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防治科

  • 3.

    215123 苏州, 苏州工业园区疾病防治中心环境卫生科

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    李红美, E-mail: lihongmei@suda.edu.cn

    陆艳, E-mail: szly0700@sina.com

    朱小红, E-mail: 672550437@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: R363.232

Association between PM2.5 pollution in ambient air and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Suzhou in 2016: a time series analysis

  • 1.

    Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China

  • 2.

    Department of Chronic Diseases, Suzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215000, China

  • 3.

    Department of Environmental and Hygiene, Suzhou Industrial Park Centre for Disease Control and Prevention Suzhou 215123, China

More Information

    摘要
  • 摘要:   目的  探讨苏州市PM2.5对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的影响。  方法  收集2016年1月1日~2017年12月31日苏州市居民人群死亡数据、大气污染物的数据、气象资料，采用广义相加泊松回归模型分析PM2.5与居民每日心脑血管疾病死亡人数之间的关系，计算PM2.5质量浓度每上升一个四分位数间距（interquartile range，IQR）的相对危险度（relative risk，RR值）及其95%可信区间。  结果  2016-2017年苏州市居民因心脑血管疾病死亡总人数为30 200人，平均为41例/d。PM2.5的日均中位浓度为37.13 μg/m3，IQR为30.75 μg/m3。在最佳滞后条件下，PM2.5浓度每上升一个IQR，苏州市居民心脑血管疾病单日死亡效应和平均死亡效应RR值分别为1.017（1.001~1.034）和1.055（1.019~1.093）。分层分析结果显示，女性和>65岁老年人群的心脑血管疾病的死亡风险更高。  结论  苏州市PM2.5浓度的升高可能引起人群心脑血管疾病死亡风险的增加。
    Abstract:   Objective  To explore the effect of PM2.5 on the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in Suzhou, China.  Methods  The death data, air pollutant data and meteorological data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017 in Suzhou were collected. The general additive Poisson regression model was used to analyse the association of exposure to PM2.5 with the daily deaths due to cardio-cerebrovascular disease, and to calculate the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5.  Results  The number of deaths from cardio-cerebrovascular disease was 30 200. On average, there were approximately 41 deaths per day. The daily median concentration of PM2.5 was 37.13 μg/m3 and IQR was 30.75 μg/m3. The RR values of single-day death and average death from cardio-cerebrovascular disease were 1.017(1.001-1.034) and 1.055(1.019-1.093)with an IQR increase of PM2.5 concentration, respectively. Stratified by gender and age, female and the elderly aged over 65 had higher risks of death from the cardio-cerebrovascular disease.  Conclusion  The elevated level of ambient PM2.5 was positively associated with the increase of mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease.
    • HTML全文

  • 图  1  2016-2017年PM2.5浓度变化趋势

    Figure  1.  The change trend of PM2.5 concentration

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  2  2016-2017年心脑血管疾病死亡每日例数的变化趋势

    Figure  2.  The change trend of mortality counts in cardio-cerebrovascular disease

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  3  PM2.5对心脑血管疾病死亡的滞后效应

    Figure  3.  The lag effects of PM2.5 on cardio-cerebrovascular disease

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  4  PM2.5对不同性别人群心脑血管疾病死亡的滞后效应分布

    Figure  4.  The lag effects of PM2.5 on cardio-cerebrovascular disease in different gender groups

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  5  PM2.5对不同年龄人群心脑血管疾病死亡的滞后效应分布

    Figure  5.  The lag effects of PM2.5 on cardio-cerebro-vascular disease in different age groups

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    表  1  2016-2017年心脑血管疾病每日死亡数、气象因素以及大气污染水平

    Table  1.   Daily death from cardio-cerebrovascular disease, meteorological factors and air pollution levels in Suzhou from 2016 to 2017

    M Q1 Q3 Min Max
    每日死亡人数(人) 40.00 33.00 48.00 18.00 76.00
    大气污染物浓度(μg/m3)
      PM2.5 37.13 24.88 55.63 6.71 206.00
      PM10 60.00 43.50 85.29 10.63 278.38
      SO2 14.00 10.38 18.00 5.75 39.00
      NO2 44.00 33.75 57.50 12.25 118.13
      CO(mg/m3) 0.84 0.69 1.04 0.36 2.11
      O3 89.25 64.75 133.38 6.63 246.50
    气象因素
      日均温度(℃) 18.83 10.60 24.85 -4.53 35.70
      日均相对湿度(%) 74.00 64.00 83.33 39.67 96.67
      日均气压(hPa) 1 018.00 1 010.80 1 024.70 997.90 1 041.75
      日均风速(m/s) 1.70 1.20 2.50 0.40 7.70
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  心脑血管疾病死亡特征分布

    Table  2.   Age and sex distribution of death from cardio-cerebrovascular disease

    病例数(N=30 200) 百分比(%)
    性别
      男 14 589 48.31
      女 15 611 51.69
    年龄(岁)
      ＜65 2 377 7.87
      ≥65 27 823 92.13
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  大气污染物与气象因素的Spearman相关系数

    Table  3.   Spearman correlations between air pollution and meteorological factors

    大气污染物(μg/m3) 气象因素
    SO2 NO2 CO O3 PM10 PM2.5 Temp RH Press Ws
    大气污染物
      SO2 1.000
      NO2 0.627a 1.000
      CO 0.627a 0.691a 1.000
      O3 -0.081b -0.338a -0.243b 1.000
      PM10 0.743a 0.623a 0.654a 0.128b 1.000
      PM2.5 0.716a 0.656a 0.761a -0.024 0.894a 1.000
    气象因素
      Temp(℃) -0.493a -0.451a -0.378a 0.554a -0.269a -0.469a 1.000
      RH(%) -0.454a -0.029 0.077b -0.440a -0.416a -0.251a 0.104b 1.000
      Press(hPa) 0.555a 0.400a 0.328a -0.485a 0.255a 0.385a -0.843a -0.193a 1.000
      Ws(m/s) -0.385a -0.455a -0.443a 0.119b -0.277a -0.263a -0.005 -0.134b -0.216a 1.000
    心脑血管疾病死亡人数 0.353a 0.283a 0.296a -0.297a 0.298a 0.410a -0.499a -0.137b 0.446a -0.040
    注：Spearman相关性检验；a为P＜0.001，b为P＜0.05。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  不同污染物模型条件下PM2.5与心脑血管疾病死亡之间的关系

    Table  4.   The relationship between PM2.5 and the deaths of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in different pollutant models

    污染物模型 RR(95%CI)值
    单污染模型
      PM2.5 1.055(1.019~1.093)
    双污染模型
      PM2.5+SO2 1.026(0.975~1.080)
      PM2.5+NO2 1.071(1.020~1.124)
      PM2.5+CO 1.093(1.037~1.151)
      PM2.5+O3 1.040(1.001~1.080)
    注：纳入模型中的变量均为平均滞后5天的值，所有模型均控制了气象因素。
    下载: 导出CSV
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