福建省人感染H7N9禽流感空间流行病学

陈光敏; 郑奎城; 谢剑锋; 欧剑鸣; 祝寒松

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.006

福建省人感染H7N9禽流感空间流行病学

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.006

350001 福州, 福建省疾病预防控制中心, 福建省人兽共患病研究重点实验室

基金项目:

福建省2016年卫生计生青年科研课题 2016-1-18

详细信息

通讯作者:
郑奎城. E-mail: kingdadi9909@126.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-01-02
- 修回日期: 2019-05-02
- 刊出日期: 2019-08-10

Analysis on spatial epidemiological characteristics of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in Fujian Province

Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fuzhou 350001, China

Funds:

Youth Scientific Research Project of Fujian Provincial Health Commissionin in 2016 2016-1-18

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHENG Kui-cheng. E-mail: kingdadi9909@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析福建省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情和时空特征，为制定和调整防控策略提供依据。方法采用SAS 9.2、ArcGIS 10.3、SaTScan 9.4等软件对福建省2013-2017年人感染H7N9禽流感病例进行空间流行病学分析。结果截止到2017年12月31日，福建省共报告108例人感染H7N9禽流感确诊病例，死亡28人，病死率25.93%。疫情以散发为主，占96.30%，冬春季病例多，农村病例占比多于城市。县级层面病例主要聚集在沿海，全局自相关（Z=3.74，P < 0.001）和高/低聚类分析（Z=5.26，P < 0.001）结果提示存在空间聚集性。长乐区、福清市、晋江市和思明区是高-高聚集区和局部热点。2014年12月-2015年3月，存在2个时空聚集区域，最大可能集聚区是以漳浦县为圆心，63.04 km为半径（RR=4.72，LLR=11.41，P < 0.001）的区域；二级可能聚集区是以福清市为圆心，81.98 km为半径（RR=4.07，LLR=7.96，P=0.037）的区域。结论福建省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情存在时间和空间聚集性，防控措施应向高发季节、重点区域倾斜，并加强病原学监测。
- 人感染H7N9禽流感 /
- 时空聚集性 /
- 时空扫描
Abstract: Objective The aim is to analyze the spatial epidemiological characteristics for human infection with avian influenza H7N9 in Fujian Province, so as to provide scientific evidence for developing and adjusting related control strategies. Methods The epidemiological data of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza in Fujian Province, from 2013 to 2017 was analyzed by SAS 9.2, ArcGIS 10.3 and SaTScan 9.4 software. Results There were a total of 108 cases and 28 deaths reported in Fujian Province, up to December 31, 2017. The case fatality rate was 25.93%.96.30% of cases were sporadic. There were more incidences in winters and springs, more incidences in rural areas. The global spatial autocorrelation and high/low clustering analysis indicated that clusters at the county level were in the shore areas (Z=3.74, P < 0.001; Z=5.26, P < 0.001). The cities of Changle, Fuqing, Jinjiang and Siming were the high-high clustered areas and local hot-points. There were two clusters, from December 2014 to March 2015, the most likely cluster regions was centered around Zhangpu County with a radius of 63.04 km (RR=4.72, LLR=11.41, P < 0.001). The secondary cluster regions was centered around Fuqing City with a radius of 81.98 km (RR=4.07, LLR=7.96, P=0.037). Conclusions Human infection with avian influenza H7N9 in Fujian Province is spatially and temporally clustered. The measures of prevention and control should be focused on high incidence seasons and key regions, and the surveillance of etiology should be strengthened.
- Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) /
- Spatial-temporal cluster /
- Spatial-temporal scanning

HTML全文

图 1 福建省人感染H7N9禽流感累计病例数县区分层设色图

Figure 1. Case-distribution of the cumulative number of human infection with avian influenza(H7N9) in Fujian Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 福建省人感染H7N9禽流感各波次疫情县区病例数分布图

Figure 2. Case-distribution of avian influenza(H7N9) by stages in Fujian Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 福建省人感染H7N9禽流感累计病例局部莫兰指数

Figure 3. Moran'I index map of the cumulative number ofavian influenza(H7N9) in Fujian Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 福建省人感染H7N9禽流感累计病例局部热点分析图

Figure 4. Getis-Ord Gi map of the cumulative number of avian influenza(H7N9) in Fujian Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 福建省人感染H7N9禽流感累计病例时空聚集特征

Figure 5. Space-time clustering analysis of avian influenza(H7N9) in Fujian Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 福建省人感染H7N9禽流感累计病例时空扫描结果

Table 1. Space-time clustering analysis of avian influenza(H7N9) in Fujian Province

聚集分级	聚集时间(年/月)	区/县数(个)	聚集圆心	半径(km)	实际病例	期望病例	RR值	LLR值	P值
最大可能	2014.12-2015.3	10	漳浦县	63.04	16	3.84	4.72	11.41	＜0.001
二级可能	2014.12-2015.3	20	福清市	81.98	13	3.52	4.07	7.96	0.037

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