四川省2008-2018年流行性乙型脑炎流行特征及ARIMA模型应用

刘丽珺; 刘宇; 周兴余; 张佳珂; 李伟; 漆琪

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.007

四川省2008-2018年流行性乙型脑炎流行特征及ARIMA模型应用

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.007

刘丽珺¹,
刘宇¹,
周兴余²,
张佳珂³,
李伟³,
漆琪^1, ,

1.
610041 成都, 四川省疾病预防控制中心免疫规划所
2.
610041 成都, 四川省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病预防控制所
3.
610041 成都, 四川省疾病预防控制中心微生物检验所

详细信息

通讯作者:
漆琪. E-mail: 250877069@qq.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 文章访问数: 322
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-02-14
- 修回日期: 2019-06-10
- 刊出日期: 2019-08-10

Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2018 and application of autoregressive integrated moving average model

1.
Institute of Immunization Programming, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
2.
Institute of Acute Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
3.
Institute of Microbiological Inspection, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China

More Information

Corresponding author: QI Qi. E-mail: 250877069@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的描述四川省2008-2018年流行乙型脑炎（Japanese encephalitis，JE）流行病特征，分析其变化规律，并构建自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型探讨该模型在预测JE发病趋势中的应用。方法采用描述流行病学分析2008-2018年四川省JE流行概况，利用2008年1月-2017年12月四川省JE分月监测资料拟合ARIMA模型，并应用2018年1-12月报告发病数进行模型检验。结果四川省2008-2018年JE疫情呈下降趋势，全省疫情主要集中于川东和川南，发病高峰为每年7-9月，儿童为高危人群，但近年来青少年及成人发病有上升趋势。ARIMA（1，0，0）（2，1，0）₁₂能较好拟合JE发病时间序列趋势。结论构建ARIMA模型可用于四川省JE疫情报告发病数的短期预测。
- 流行性乙型脑炎 /
- ARIMA模型 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective The aim is to describe the epidemiological characteristics of Japanese encephalitis(JE) in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2018, to build time series autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model, and to discuss the model application in the prediction of JE incidence trends. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the epidemic situation of JE in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2018. Monthly surveillance data of JE in Sichuan Province from January 2008 to December 2017 were used to fit ARIMA model. The number of reported cases from January to December in 2018 was used to test the model. Results The epidemic situation of JE in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2018 showed a downward trend, and eastern and southern areas were the highly prevalent areas. The incidence peak was from July to September every year. Children were the high-risk group, but the incidence of adolescent and adult was on the rise in recent years. ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂ could appropriately fit the time series. Conclusion ARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction of the reported incidence of JE in Sichuan Province.
- Japanese encephalitis /
- ARIMA model /
- Prediction

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图 1 2008-2018年四川省JE发病率地区分布

Figure 1. Regional distribution of JE in Sichuan from 2008 to 2018

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图 2 2008-2018年四川省报告JE发病季节分布

Figure 2. Seasonal distribution of JE in Sichuan from 2008 to 2018

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图 1 2008-2018年四川省各年龄组JE发病数构成比分布

Figure 1. Proportion of JE cases by age in Sichuan from 2008 to 2018

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图 4 2008-2018年四川省JE分月报告发病数时序图

Figure 4. The reported JE cases by month from 2008 to 2018 in Sichuan

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图 5 时间序列季节分解图

Figure 5. Seasonal decomposition of the time series

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图 6 模型残差的自相关图和偏自相关图

Figure 6. ACF and PACF of the model residual

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图 7 2008年1月-2018年12月JE分月报告发病数拟合及预测结果

Figure 7. Predicted JE cases by month from January 2008 to December 2018 in Sichuan

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表 1 2008-2018年四川省JE发病与死亡情况

Table 1. Incidence and mortality rates of JE in Sichuan from 2008 to 2018

年份(年)	人口数(万)	发病数(例)	发病率(/10万)	95% CI值	死亡数(例)	死亡率(/10万)
2008	812.650 7	573	0.705 1	0.649~0.765	24	0.029 5
2009	818.330 6	350	0.427 7	0.384~0.475	15	0.018 3
2010	818.572 2	305	0.372 6	0.332~0.417	5	0.006 1
2011	804.248 9	318	0.395 4	0.353~0.441	13	0.016 2
2012	805.105 5	328	0.407 4	0.364~0.454	12	0.014 9
2013	807.548 8	368	0.455 7	0.410~0.505	14	0.017 3
2014	810.531 8	157	0.193 7	0.165~0.226	5	0.006 2
2015	814.144 7	99	0.121 6	0.098~0.148	2	0.002 5
2016	820.584 1	118	0.143 8	0.119~0.172	3	0.003 7
2017	826.067 0	180	0.217 9	0.187~0.252	4	0.004 8
2018	829.994 3	145	0.174 7	0.147~0.206	3	0.003 6
合计	8 966.463 4	2 941	0.328 0	0.316~0.340	100	0.011 2

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表 2 备选ARIMA模型及AIC值

Table 2. Alternative ARIMA model and AIC value

拟建模型	AIC值
ARIMA(2, 0, 2)(1, 1, 1)₁₂	Inf
ARIMA(0, 0, 0)(0, 1, 0)₁₂	1 051.36
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)₁₂	1 040.84
ARIMA(0, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂	1 046.84
ARIMA(0, 0, 0)(0, 1, 0)₁₂	1 050.78
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(0, 1, 0)₁₂	1 052.93
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 035.49
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(2, 1, 1)₁₂	Inf
ARIMA(0, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 037.13
ARIMA(2, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	Inf
ARIMA(1, 0, 1)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 037.73
ARIMA(2, 0, 1)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 040.01
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 034.44
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)₁₂	1 040.90
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)(2, 1, 1)₁₂	Inf
ARIMA(0, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 036.77
ARIMA(2, 0, 0)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 036.59
ARIMA(1, 0, 1)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 036.62
ARIMA(2, 0, 1)(2, 1, 0)₁₂	1 038.85

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表 3 2018年JE分月报告发病实际值、预测值及95% CI

Table 3. The observed, predicted JE cases and the 95% CI from January 2018 to December 2018

2018年	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	12月
实际值	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	3.00	98.00	35.00	8.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
预测值	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38	1.08	79.89	61.31	18.55	4.82	1.40	0.00
95% CI值下限	-54.28	-55.56	-55.62	-55.63	-55.25	-54.55	24.26	5.69	-37.08	-50.81	-54.23	-55.63
95% CI值上限	54.28	55.56	55.62	55.63	56.01	56.71	135.52	116.94	74.17	60.44	57.02	55.63
绝对误差	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.62	1.92	18.11	26.31	10.55	4.82	1.40	0.00

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