基于地理信息系统的淮安市食管癌发病时空统计分析

缪丹丹; 张芹; 孙中明; 唐勇; 文进博; 潘恩春

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.016

基于地理信息系统的淮安市食管癌发病时空统计分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.016

223001 淮安, 淮安市疾病预防控制中心

基金项目:

江苏省第五期“333”工程科研资助立项项目 BRA2017242

淮安市重点研发（社会发展）计划 HAS201607-1

详细信息

通讯作者:
潘恩春. E-mail: hypec@163.com

中图分类号: R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-04-19
- 修回日期: 2019-07-09
- 刊出日期: 2019-09-10

Spatiotemporal analysis of esophageal cancer incidence in Huai'an: a study based on geographic information system

Huai'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai'an 223001, China

Funds:

Jiangsu Provincial Fifth "333 Project" BRA2017242

The Major Research and Development (Social Development) Program of Huai'an City HAS201607-1

More Information

Corresponding author: PAN En-chun, E-mail: hypec@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探索淮安市食管癌发病的空间分布规律，确定淮安市食管癌发病的高发区域和低发区域，为进一步开展环境风险因子研究提供依据。方法收集2011-2015年淮安市分乡镇（街道）的食管癌发病及人口数据，采用全局空间自相关和局部异常值分析淮安市食管癌发病的空间分布规律，采用时空扫描统计探索食管癌的发病风险区。结果 2011-2015年淮安市食管癌平均发病率为67.12/10万，历年男性发病率均高于女性（均有P < 0.001）。自相关分析显示，淮安市食管癌发病的空间分布呈明显聚集状态，存在局部热点和冷点地区。食管癌的高发聚集区位于淮安区、淮阴区和金湖县的部分乡镇，低发聚集区包括主城区的10个街道和盱眙县的部分乡镇，男女性的聚集区位置一致。结论淮安市食管癌发病存在空间聚集性，男女性食管癌的高发区位置相似，本研究结果可为食管癌多致病因子的研究奠定基础。
- 食管癌 /
- 时空扫描统计 /
- 空间自相关
Abstract: Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern, and identify risk cluster of esophageal cancer in Huai'an City so as to provide evidence for control and prevention of esophageal cancer. Methods Data of esophageal cancer incidence at township level in Huai'an City from 2011 to 2015 was collected. Spatial autocorrelation and local indications of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) were implemented to evaluate the spatial pattern of esophageal cancer incidence. Spatial scan statistics was used to examine spatio-temporal clustering of risk areas. Results The average incidence of esophageal cancer in Huai'an from 2011 to 2015 was 67.12/10 million, the incidence of male was significantly higher than that of female. The results of Moran's I values implyed the spatial autocorrelation at township level. The results of LISA indicated that there were local hot spots and cold spots. The significant high-risk clusters included townships in Huai'an County, Huaiyin County and Jinhu County. The low-risk clusters were located in the main urban area and Xuyi County. Conclusions There are significant spatio-temporal aggregation for the distribution of incidence of esophageal cancer in Huai'an City and same spatiotemporal high-risk clusters between male and female. Our findings have a foundation to explore the multi-factorial etiology of esophageal cancer and have vital practical value for health services and policies implementation.
- Esophageal cancer /
- Spatial scan statistics /
- Spatial autocorrelation

HTML全文

图 1 淮安市男女性食管癌发病率空间分布图

Figure 1. The distribution of esophageal cancer incidence for male and female in Huai'an

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 淮安市食管癌发病局部聚集性和异常值分析

Figure 2. Spatial clusters by LISA of esophageal cancer incidence for male and female in Huai'an

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2011-2015年淮安市食管癌发病情况(1/10万)

Table 1. The incidence of esophageal cancer in Huai'an from 2011 to 2015 (1/100 000)

年份	男性发病率	女性发病率	合计发病率	χ²值	P值
2010	83.67	51.23	67.88	201.11	＜0.001
2011	83.19	52.81	68.41	176.35	＜0.001
2012	84.30	57.79	71.40	124.90	＜0.001
2013	77.58	52.38	65.41	129.87	＜0.001
2014	82.38	49.83	66.57	213.41	＜0.001
2015	75.87	50.16	63.35	140.53	＜0.001
5年平均	81.11	52.32	67.12	975.30	＜0.001
Moran’s I	0.50	0.57	0.55	-	-

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2011-2015年淮安市食管癌时空扫描统计结果

Table 2. The result of spatial-time scan statistics for esophageal cancer in Huai'an from 2011 to 2015

指标	男性高风险区			男性低风险区		女性高风险区		女性低风险区
指标	1	2	3	1	2	1	2	1	2
街道/乡镇数(个)	24	9	9	17	17	25	10	21	15
半径(km)	28.57	16.38	18.10	13.60	26.60	28.86	16.35	15.71	25.77
观测病例数(例)	734	198	146	69	94	438	107	66	42
预测病例数(例)	402.35	115.35	84.39	313.18	213.12	243.98	59.91	261.44	119.88
总人口数(个)	511 008	146 061	108 235	398 661	262 102	474 620	115 690	504 533	227 166
年发病率(1/10万)	143.7	135.2	136.3	17.4	34.7	92.9	92.4	13.1	18.1
聚集时间(年份)	2012	2011	2012	2012	2011	2012	2012	2011	2011
RR值	1.89	1.73	1.74	0.21	0.44	1.86	1.80	0.24	0.35
LLR	115.65	24.69	18.62	142.97	42.93	65.66	15.16	107.97	34.36
P值	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001	＜0.001

下载: 导出CSV

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