甘肃省2010-2016年出生的非综合征性唇腭裂患者时空分布特征

雷杰; 袁敬炎; 沈喜; 赵思萱; 刘瑞敏; 杨兰; 杜洪亮; 谢小冬

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.017

甘肃省2010-2016年出生的非综合征性唇腭裂患者时空分布特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.09.017

730000 兰州, 兰州大学生命科学学院

基金项目:

国家基础科学人才培养基金 J1210077

国家基础科学人才培养基金 J1210033

国家基础科学人才培养基金 J1103502

教育部“质量工程”项目 222-860617

兰州大学大学生创新创业项目 20180180028

详细信息

通讯作者:
沈喜. E-mail: shenxi@lzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-12-15
- 修回日期: 2019-04-01
- 刊出日期: 2019-09-10

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

Life Science School of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Funds:

National Foundation for Training Basic Scientific Personnel J1210077

National Foundation for Training Basic Scientific Personnel J1210033

National Foundation for Training Basic Scientific Personnel J1103502

Ministry of Education "Quality Engineering" Project 222-860617

Lanzhou University College Students Innovation and Entrepreneurship Project 20180180028

More Information

Corresponding author: SHEN Xi, E-mail: shenxi@lzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨甘肃省2010-2016年出生的非综合征性唇腭裂（non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate，NSCLP）的时空分布特征并建立预测模型，为甘肃省NSCLP的防控工作提供依据。方法采用空间流行病学研究方法及地理信息系统（geographic information system，GIS）进行专题制图、空间自相关分析、高/低聚类分析、热点分析和克里金（Kirging）插值预测。结果甘肃省2010-2016年各年度89个县区NSCLP发病率聚集趋势为东南高、西北低；2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP累积发病率的空间分布呈现空间正相关（Moran’I=0.274，Z=7.814，P < 0.001），且聚集类型为高聚类（Getis Gi=0.000 003，Z=4.381，P < 0.001），存在22个发病热点县区。Kirging插值预测结果显示NSCLP主要流行趋势由甘肃的陇东往陇西、陇南方向延伸。结论甘肃省2010-2016年NSCLP地理分布呈现空间正相关，主要聚集类型为高-高聚集，高聚集区集中在甘肃陇东、陇西和陇南区域，需要重点防控。
- 非综合征性唇腭裂 /
- 地理信息系统 /
- 时空聚类分析
Abstract: Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate (NSCLP) who born in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016, and to establish a predictive model for developing the strategies for the prevention and control of NSCLP. Methods Spatial epidemiological research method and geographical information systems (GIS) were used to conduct thematic mapping, spatial correlation analysis, high/low clustering analysis, hotspot analysis and Kirging interpolation prediction for NSCLP patients in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016. Results From 2010 to 2016, the aggregation trend of NSCLP incidence in 89 counties in Gansu Province was different obviously, the southeast area was high and the northwest was low. Based on the data of the cumulative incidence of NSCLP from 2010 to 2016 in Gansu, the spatial distribution of NSCLP presented positive spatial correlation (Moran'I=0.274, Z=7.814, P < 0.001) and the aggregation type was high-high cluster(Getis Gi=0.000 003, Z=4.381, P < 0.001), with 22 hot spots. The Kirging interpolation prediction results showed that the main prevalence trend of NSCLP in Gansu extended from Longdong to Longxi and Longnan areas. Conclusions The geographical distribution of NSCLP had a positive spatial correlation and a high-high aggregation type in Gansu from 2010 to 2016. The high aggregation area is concentrated in Longdong, Longxi and Longnan of Gansu, which suggest that it is essential to focus on prevention and control in these areas.
- NSCLP /
- GIS /
- Space-time clustering

HTML全文

图 1 2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP空间分布图

Figure 1. The spatial distribution of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP局部空间自相关分析

Figure 2. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2010-2016年7年甘肃省NSCLP累积发病率冷热点图

Figure 3. The hot spot map of cumulative incidence of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP Kirging插值预测图

Figure 4. Kirging interpolation prediction of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP全局空间自相关分析

Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

年份	Moran’ I	Z值	P值	聚集
2010	0.040	1.398	0.162	否
2011	0.159	4.886	< 0.001	是
2012	0.051	1.813	0.070	否
2013	0.022	1.238	0.216	否
2014	0.125	3.742	< 0.001	是
2015	0.166	4.915	< 0.001	是
2016	0.106	3.422	< 0.001	是
7年累积	0.274	7.814	< 0.001	是

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP空间自相关分析产生的热点区域

Table 2. Hot spots generated by autocorrelation analysis of NSCLP space in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

年份	高-高聚集的热点县区
2010	广河县、合作市、康乐县、临潭县、永靖县
2011	迭部县、广河县、合作市、和政县、康乐县、临潭县、夏河县、舟曲县、漳县
2012	迭部县、碌曲县、玛曲县
2013	无高-高聚集的热点县区
2014	东乡县、广河县、积石山县、康乐县、临潭县、永靖县、榆中县、卓尼县
2015	迭部县、宕昌县、东乡县、皋兰县、和政县、康乐县、临洮县、临夏市、临夏县、岷县、夏河县、卓尼县、漳县
2016	定西市安定区、东乡县、积石山县、康乐县、临洮县、夏河县、永靖县、漳县

下载: 导出CSV

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