2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS流行特征及时空聚集性

陈继军; 王宇红; 宋萍; 冯爱娟; 齐跃军

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.12.003

2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS流行特征及时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.12.003

730030 兰州, 兰州市疾病预防控制中心性病与艾滋病防制所

基金项目:

兰州市人才创新创业项目 2017-RC-14

兰州市卫生健康科技发展项目 2019-038

详细信息

中图分类号: R512.91
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-06-30
- 修回日期: 2019-10-15
- 刊出日期: 2019-12-10

Analysis of HIV/AIDS epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal aggregation in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

STD and AIDS Prevention and Control Instate, Lanzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730030, China

Funds:

Lanzhou Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Project 2017-RC-14

Lanzhou Health Science and Technology Development Project 2019-038

摘要

摘要: 目的探测2011-2018年兰州市艾滋病（aquired immunodeficiency syndrom，AIDS）流行特征及县区级人类免疫缺陷病毒（human immunodeficiency virus，HIV）感染者和AIDS病人分布的时空聚集性，为兰州市HIV/AIDS的防控提供科学参考。方法采用时空扫描计量法对HIV/AIDS报告数时空聚集性进行探测、检验、分析，获得艾滋病疫情在时间和空间分布上的聚集特征，并用ArcGIS 10.3实现探测结果的可视化。结果 2011-2018年，兰州市HIV/AIDS分布共存在4个有统计学意义的时空聚集区。其中一类聚集区为城关区、安宁区和皋兰县，聚集时间为2015-2018年（LLR=108.63，RR=2.02，P < 0.001）；二类聚集区为七里河区，聚集时间为2015-2018年（LLR=60.93，RR=2.11，P < 0.001）。探测到七里河区在2014-2017年出现了异性传播的一类聚集，皋兰县、安宁区和城关区在2015-2018年出现了异性传播二类聚集；探测到皋兰县、安宁区和城关区在2015-2018年出现了同性传播一类聚集；七里河区在2017-2018年出现了同性传播二类聚集。结论兰州市HIV/AIDS疫情无论是病例报告数还是不同传播途径均存在时空聚集性，防控形势依然严峻，应该引起当地相关部门的高度重视。
- 艾滋病 /
- 时空扫描计量法 /
- 地理信息系统 /
- 时空聚集
Abstract: Objective To detect the characteristics of acquired immune deficiency syndrom (AIDS) epidemic in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018 and the spatiotemporal aggregation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and AIDS patients at county level, and to provide scientific reference for prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou City. Methods The space-time scanning and measurement method was used to detect, test, and analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of HIV/AIDS reports. The aggregation characteristics of the AIDS epidemic in time and space were obtained, and the detection results were visualized by ArcGIS 10.3. Results From 2011 to 2018, there were four statistically significant high spatial and temporal aggregation areas in HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou City. One type of gathering area was Chengguan District, Anning District and Gaolan County. The gathering time was from 2015 to 2018 (LLR=108.63, RR=2.02, P < 0.001); The second type of aggregation area was the Qilihe area, which gathered from 2015 to 2018 (LLR=60.93, RR=2.11, P < 0.001). It was detected that the Qilihe District had a type Ⅰ aggregation of heterosexual transmission from 2014 to 2017, and Gaolan County, Anning District and Chengguan District had a type Ⅱ aggregation of heterosexual transmission from 2015 to 2018; It was detected that Gaolan County, Anning District and Chengguan District had a type of gathering of same-sex transmission from 2015 to 2018; In the Qilihe District, there was a second category of same-sex communication between 2017 and 2018. Conclusion The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Lanzhou City has spatiotemporal aggregation regardless of the number of reports or different transmission routes. The prevention and control situation is still severe and should be highly valued by the relevant local departments.
- Acquired immune deficiency syndrom /
- Time and space scanning measurement /
- Geographic information system /
- Time and space gathering

HTML全文

图 1 2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS疫情变化趋势

Figure 1. Trends in the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

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图 2 2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS病例报告数空间变迁情况

Figure 2. Spatial changes in reported cases of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

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图 3 2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS报告病例主要空间聚集区域

Figure 3. Major spatial concentrations of reported HIV/AIDS cases in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

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图 4 2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS报告病例主要时空聚集区域

Figure 4. Major spatial and temporal concentrations of reported HIV/AIDS cases in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

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图 5 兰州市2011-2018年异性性传播途径感染HIV/AIDS时空聚集区分布

Figure 5. Distribution of spatiotemporal agglomerations of heterosexual sexually transmitted infections with HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 兰州市2011-2018年同性性传播途径感染HIV/AIDS时空聚集区分布

Figure 6. Distribution of spatiotemporal aggregation areas of HIV/AIDS infection by homosexual sexually transmitted route in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2011-2018年报告HIV/AIDS病例的地区分布

Table 1. Regional distribution of reported cases of HIV/AIDS from 2011 to 2018

市(州)	报告人数(人)								合计	平均增长速度(%)	年平均报告发病率(1/10万)
市(州)	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	合计	平均增长速度(%)	年平均报告发病率(1/10万)
城关区	49	67	81	108	156	148	160	153	922	17.27	8.84
七里河区	24	28	36	60	63	66	96	82	455	18.86	9.96
西固区	11	7	13	27	26	29	25	24	162	11.75	5.52
安宁区	13	10	14	18	28	27	38	33	181	14.14	8.01
红古区	6	0	4	4	5	12	4	8	43	3.82	3.86
永登县	6	4	6	12	15	22	15	17	97	19.24	3.32
皋兰县	1	2	2	1	6	5	6	6	29	32.95	3.24
榆中县	3	7	8	5	13	22	19	27	104	36.59	2.94
合计	113	125	164	235	312	331	363	350	1993	19.33	5.71

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表 2 2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS报告病例数单纯空间扫描结果

Table 2. Pure space scan results of reported cases of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

聚集区	聚集县区数量	发病数 (人)	期望发病数(人)	人口数 (人)	RR值	LLR值	P值
一类	1	922	719	1 300 624	1.52	43.28	< 0.001
二类	1	455	315	569 404	1.58	33.39	< 0.001

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表 3 2011-2018年兰州市HIV/AIDS报告病例数时空扫描结果

Table 3. Results of spatiotemporal scanning of reported HIV/AIDS cases in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

聚集区	聚集县区数量	聚集时间 (年)	发病数 (人)	期望发病数(人)	人口数 (人)	RR值	LLR值	P值
一类	3	2015-2018	766	458	1 703 112	2.10	109.63	< 0.001
二类	1	2015-2018	307	162	569 404	2.08	60.85	< 0.001

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表 4 兰州市2011-2018年不同途径感染HIV/AIDS时间和空间聚集区

Table 4. Time and spatial agglomeration of different routes of HIV/AIDS infection in Lanzhou City from 2011 to 2018

传播途径	一类聚集区	二类聚集区	聚集时间
异性性传播	七里河区	皋兰县，安宁区，城关区	2014-2017(一类) 2015-2018(二类)
同性性传播	皋兰县，安宁区，城关区	七里河区	2015-2018(一类) 2017-2018(二类)

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