2012—2016年宁夏人间布鲁菌病与自然环境因素的相关性

赵媛; 郭忠琴; 赵建华; 梁沛枫

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.013

2012—2016年宁夏人间布鲁菌病与自然环境因素的相关性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.013

1.
750001 银川, 宁夏医科大学公共卫生与管理学院流行病与卫生统计学系
2.
750001 银川, 宁夏回族自治区疾病预防控制中心
3.
750004 银川, 宁夏回族自治区人民医院病案室

基金项目: 宁夏自然科学基金(NZ17187);西北民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目重点项目(31920180088)

详细信息

通讯作者:
梁沛枫, E-mail:doctor_pf@126.com

中图分类号: R155.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-10-28
- 修回日期: 2020-01-30
- 刊出日期: 2020-04-10

Correlation analysis between brucellosis and natural environmental factors in Ningxia Hui autonomous region from 2012 to 2016

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750001, China
2.
Ningxia Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yinchuan 750001, China
3.
Case Room of People's Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750004, China

Funds: National Nature Science Foundation of Ningxia(NZ17187); Key Projects of Fundamental Research Business Expenses in Central Universities of Northwest University for Nationalities(31920180088)

More Information

Corresponding author: LIANG Pei-feng, E-mail:doctor_pf@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨宁夏回族自治区(宁夏)各县(区)2012-2016年人间布鲁菌病(brucellosis, 简称布病)与自然环境因素间的相关性, 为早期采取相应的防治措施提供参考依据。方法收集2012-2016年宁夏疾病预防控制中心法定报告传染病数据库中人布病发病数资料, 采用Spearman相关性分析探索人间布病发病率与自然环境因素间的相关性, 同时采用ArcGIS 10.6软件来直观表达布病与各影响因素间的相关性。结果 2012-2016年宁夏布病发病数由449例增加至2 160例。研究发现布病发病率与风速、耕地面积以及草地面积存在正相关关系(均有P < 0.05), 应用ArcGIS 10.6软件绘制出的图形, 更直观的表达出了与Spearman相关性分析结果相同。结论人间布病与风速、耕地面积以及草地面积具有一定的相关关系, 因此了解人间布病的影响因素, 掌握相应自然环境因素变化的趋势, 有利于对该疾病未来的发生发展状况进行预测, 从而对布病的早期预警具有一定的意义。
- 布鲁菌病 /
- 地理信息系统 /
- Spearman相关性分析 /
- 自然环境因素
Abstract: Objective To explore the correlation between brucellosis and natural environmental factors in Ningxia from 2012 to 2016, so as to provide reference for early prevention and control measures. Methods The epidemic situation of human brucellosis in the statutory report infectious disease database of Ningxia center for disease control and prevention were collected from 2012 to 2016, and the correlation between brucellosis and natural environmental factors was analyzed by Spearman correlation. Meanwhile, ArcGIS 10.6 software was used to intuitively express the correlation between brucellosis and various influencing factors. Results From 2012 to 2016, the incidence of brucellosis in Ningxia increased from 449 cases to 2 160 cases. In the correlation analysis, it was found that there was a positive correlation between brucellosis incidence and wind speed, cultivated land area and grassland area(all P < 0.05). The graphics drawn by ArcGIS 10.6 software more intuitively expressed the same results as spearman's. Conclusions Human brucellosis is related to wind speed, cultivated land area and grassland area. Therefore, understanding the correlation between human brucellosis and related factors, and mastering the change trend of the corresponding natural environmental factors are conducive to the prediction of the future occurrence and development of the disease, which has certain significance for the early warning of brucellosis.
- Brucellosis /
- Geographic information system /
- Spearman correlation analysis /
- Natural environmental factors

HTML全文

图 1 2012-2016年宁夏布病月发病率时间分布图

Figure 1. Time distribution of monthly incidence of brucellosis in Ningxia from 2012-2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 宁夏2012-2016年人间布病发病率与自然环境因素相关性空间分布

Figure 2. Spatial distribution of human brucellosis incidence and natural environmental factors in Ningxia from 2012 to 2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2012-2016年宁夏22县(区)人间布病发病率与自然环境因素相关分析

Table 1. Correlation analysis of brucellosis incidence and natural environment factors in 22 counties of Ningxia from 2012 to 2016

因素	r	P值
平均气温(℃)	0.168	0.455
最高气温(℃)	0.119	0.599
最低气温(℃)	0.111	0.624
降水量(mm)	- 0.050	0.824
日照时数(h)	0.309	0.162
风速(m/s)	0.673	0.001
耕地面积(hm²)	0.564	0.006
森林面积(hm²)	0.364	0.096
草地面积(hm²)	0.750	< 0.001

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 各自然地理环境因素间的交互作用

Table 2. Interaction among physical and geographical environment factors

变量	平均气温(℃)	最高气温(℃)	最低气温(℃)	降水量(mm)	日照时数(h)	风速(m/s)	耕地面积(hm²)	森林面积(hm²)	草地面积(hm²)
平均气温(℃)	1.000
最高气温(℃)	0.822^a	1.000
最低气温(℃)	0.531^a	0.370	1.000
降水量(mm)	-0.689^a	- 0.604^a	-0.378	1.000
日照时数(h)	0.642^a	0.515^a	0.241	-0.621^a	1.000
风速(m/s)	0.005	- 0.146	0.045	0.016	0.401	1.000
耕地面积(hm²)	-0.322	- 0.389	-0.041	0.348	-0.250	0.426^a	1.000
森林面积(hm²)	-0.646^a	- 0.675^a	-0.390	0.754^a	-0.425^a	0.355	0.709^a	1.000
草地面积(hm²)	0.043	0.004	0.118	-0.187	0.320	0.555^a	0.516^a	0.259	1.000
注:^a表示P < 0.05。

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表 3 主成分提取信息表

Table 3. Principal component extraction information table

成分	初始特征值			提取平方和载入
成分	特征值	方差百分比	累积方差百分比	特征值	方差百分比	累积方差百分比
1	4.366	48.512	48.512	4.366	48.512	48.512
2	1.978	21.973	70.485	1.978	21.973	70.485
3	0.976	10.844	81.329
4	0.670	7.444	88.774
5	0.458	5.089	93.862
6	0.374	4.157	98.019
7	0.095	1.060	99.079
8	0.059	0.654	99.733
9	0.024	0.267	100.00

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表 4 成分矩阵信息表

Table 4. Information table of component matrix

气象因素	成分
气象因素	1	2
最高气温(℃)	0.921	0.144
最低气温(℃)	0.466	-0.136
平均气温(℃)	0.893	0.068
降水量(mm)	-0.909	-0.130
日照时数(h)	0.881	0.317
风速(m/s)	0.064	0.797
耕地面积(hm²)	-0.464	0.648
森林面积(hm²)	-0.825	0.381
草地面积(hm²)	0.047	0.785

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表 5 宁夏布病发病率相关影响因素模型拟合表

Table 5. Model fitting table of related influencing factors of brucellosis incidence in Ningxia

变量名	β值	S_x	S(β)	t值	P值
常量	49.296	9.509	-	5.184	< 0.001
Factor1	-3.283	9.733	-0.055	-0.337	0.740
Factor2	42.048	9.733	0.703	4.320	< 0.001

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